MTSI

MACOM Technology

Q2 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-06$1.09 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Design and manufacture indium phosphide photodetectors, transimpedance amplifiers, laser drivers, and CW lasers — the analog optical components inside every 800G and 1.6T transceiver receiver chain — sitting at Layer 11 as a diversified compound semiconductor company with in-house InP fabrication and a data center segment growing 35–40% annually.

Why they matter:

Every optical receiver in an AI data center converts light back into electrical signals using an InP photodetector — MACOM is one of the few companies with in-house InP fab capacity, supplying the receiver-side analog components that complement Lumentum's transmitter-side EML lasers, with data center revenue at record levels.

Recent performance:

FQ1 2026 revenue $271.6M (+24.5% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.02. Data center revenue hit record $85.8M. Industrial & Defense hit record $117.7M. FQ2 guided $281M–$289M. FY2026 data center growth outlook raised from 20% to 35–40%. Stock at ~$264, market cap ~$19.6B.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEmerging
Rel. ValueAttractive

A diversified compound semiconductor company with genuine InP fabrication expertise and a data center segment growing 35–40%, benefiting from the 800G-to-1.6T transition — but at ~19x revenue with data center still only 30% of the mix, the AI premium outpaces current AI revenue contribution.

Structural trends

800G→1.6T→3.2T optical speed transitionsInP photodetector and CW laser demand growthcompound semiconductor scarcityindustrial & defense analog semiconductor demand200G-per-lane component transition

Structural

67

/ 100

Moat

5/10

InP fab + photodetector integration

AI Exp.

Embedded

~30% AI

Play Type

Emerging

AI Growth

~35-40%

Rel. Value

61

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$263.92

+0.11%

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Market Cap

$19.8B

P/E Ratio

118.9

P/S Ratio

19.4x

52W High

$266.05

52W Low

$93.24

52W Chg

183.1%

Beta

1.48

Supply Chain Dependencies

The Catch

MACOM is priced as an AI optical play, but AI is only 30% of the business. The data center segment ($85.8M in FQ1) is growing 35–40% — impressive, but it needs to double as a share of revenue for the current ~19x revenue multiple to be fully justified by AI fundamentals. The diversification that provides downside protection (Industrial & Defense) also caps the AI narrative upside — MACOM will never trade at Lumentum-like multiples because it's not a pure-play. On the competitive front, MACOM's receiver-side position is less defensible than Lumentum's transmitter-side position: photodetector design is more mature, germanium alternatives are advancing (Broadcom), and Coherent has internal photodetector capability. The InP scarcity that gives MACOM pricing power today has a visible expiration — by 2028, capacity expansion and alternative technologies will increase supply. If Broadcom shifts transceiver volume to in-house photodetectors (credible by 2027–2028), MACOM faces a volume loss without a natural replacement. The I&D business catches the fall, but the AI premium evaporates.

If They Win

If MACOM successfully expands into CW lasers for silicon photonics architectures — if the company becomes the analog component platform for both InP and SiPho optical systems — MACOM transforms from a diversified analog company into the essential analog interface between photons and electrons in AI data centers. Data center grows to 50%+ of revenue by FY2028. Revenue reaches $1.8B. The CW laser business becomes the bridge product that connects traditional InP architectures to the emerging SiPho world, making MACOM relevant regardless of which optical technology wins. Industrial & Defense provides the earnings floor during any AI capex pauses. Gross margins reach 60%+ on product mix and RTP fab efficiency. Market cap reaches $30–35B. MACOM becomes the analog semiconductor analog to Semtech's digital signal chain — a less exciting but equally essential component supplier that every transceiver maker needs.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.