Wednesday, September 9, 2026

With 7.5% YoY revenue growth in the last reported quarter and 14.8% trailing EBITDA margin, the bar should be clearable if Ohio/Qatar dilution is contained. The real swing factor is whether that margin drag is peaking or broadening, and whether the unnamed 14% customer or data-center opportunity expands beyond one project. A good quarter likely sustains the current trajectory; a great one would add concrete Ohio/Qatar progress and an order-book signal beyond the known work.

The bar looks clearable: Q4 average daily sales were +1%, gross margin expanded 50 bps, and adjusted EBITDA margin improved 10 bps, so the setup is a stable low-growth base plus visible self-help levers. The real story is whether the National Critical Infrastructure Group/data-centre push and record greenfield investment have started to show inflection beyond the flat EBITDA trend. A good quarter holds the line on margin; a great one would show data-centre/treatment-plant growth stepping up and greenfield openings adding revenue without an SG&A drag.