KGS Earnings Recap
Beat 3 of last 7 quarters
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Kodiak's strong compression results and rapid expansion into distributed power underscore the accelerating demand for behind-the-meter power solutions driven by AI data center growth. The Baker Hughes turbine agreement and West Texas data center NTP signal a significant buildout of natural-gas-fired power generation to support the AI infrastructure boom. The company's ability to secure long-term equipment supply and high-graded commercial pipeline positions it as a key player in the power infrastructure buildout.
Kodiak reported record adjusted EBITDA of $217 million in Q2 2026, up 22% year-over-year, on revenue of $391 million, up 21%. Compression infrastructure revenue grew 7% YoY to $315.1 million, with pricing up 4.5% to $23.80 per horsepower and fleet utilization at 98.2%. The Power Infrastructure segment, acquired via DPS in April, contributed $33 million in revenue with a 64.5% adjusted gross margin. The company secured a multiyear gas turbine supply agreement with Baker Hughes for 1 GW with an option for up to 1.8 GW, and executed a limited notice to proceed for a West Texas data center project. Adjusted net income was $54 million, or $0.55 per diluted share.
Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $830M-$860M (from prior midpoint) and raised compression infrastructure adjusted gross margin guidance to 69%-70.5%. Discretionary cash flow guidance was increased to $570M-$600M. Compression infrastructure CapEx guidance was raised to $280M-$300M, while power infrastructure CapEx guidance was reduced to $400M-$450M due to improved certainty on equipment costs and timing. The company remains confident in achieving 150,000 horsepower annual compression growth to reach 5.2M horsepower by 2030, and 2 GW of power assets by 2030, with approximately 1.8 GW already secured. They expect to receive ~50 MW of new power gensets in H2 2026, with deliveries ramping in 2027. Management highlighted a growing commercial power pipeline exceeding future capacity, with a limited notice to proceed on a West Texas data center project expected to supply power in early 2027.
“We've added about 2 gigawatts of potential projects in the last month, while at the same time, moving on from opportunities that either don't fit our timeline or aren't the right kind of counterparties for us to commit resources.”
on Power pipeline growth
“We think an average cost across our fleet build program of about $1.2 million per megawatt before balance of plant is still the right figure.”
on Power CapEx cost
“I think that announcement of this Moratorium on these data center interconnections that have been requested that's something in the range of, what, 450 gigawatts on a system that has 95 gigawatts of capacity today, that does nothing but benefit behind-the-meter power solutions providers like ourselves.”
on Texas moratorium impact
What differentiates you from peers in the power space, and what milestones should we expect before a contract is signed?
Mickey McKee highlighted Kodiak's operational expertise with rotating equipment and the DPS team's engineering and commercial capabilities, backed by Kodiak's balance sheet. He noted they are working towards installing equipment in Q1 and hope to announce a firm contract before year-end.
Can you elaborate on the delivery timeline for power equipment from 2027 through 2030 based on the 1.8 GW secured?
Mickey McKee said deliveries will be ratable at about 400 MW per year, with 2027 deliveries back-end loaded as the first Baker Hughes turbines arrive in early Q4. Deliveries level out through 2028-2030.
What criteria are you using to prioritize power projects, and how have those evolved?
Mickey McKee said the two key criteria are counterparty creditworthiness and the proximity of a data center to securing a tenant. They are avoiding projects that are not serious and focusing on those with real legs and ability to contract quickly.