Copper is in structural supply deficit with the AI buildout layering incremental demand -- busbars, transformers, and cabling for 100+ GW of data centers -- on top of electrification trends that new mine supply is unlikely to satisfy before 2030

The global copper market is entering a structural deficit that will persist through at least 2030. Southern Copper estimates a 320,000-ton deficit for 2026. BHP raised guidance by 150,000 tonnes over 2 years but is targeting only 3-4% CAGR through 2035. Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg production constraint (60K vs 100K tpd) and $500M annualized diesel cost surge have tightened supply. Hudbay Minerals is creating an Arizona copper hub. Teck-Anglo merger is advancing. The AI buildout is layering massive incremental copper demand that is not yet fully reflected in consensus models. Every GW of data center capacity requires thousands of tons of copper for busbars, transformers, cabling, and switchgear. With 5+ GW in development at CIFR, IREN, and NBIS alone, and 100+ GW in the utility pipeline, the copper intensity of the AI buildout deserves explicit modeling. Simultaneously, electrification (EVs, renewable grid integration, charging infrastructure) and defense spending are creating parallel demand surges. The supply response is constrained by geology and permitting. New greenfield copper mines require 7-10 years from discovery to production. The existing producer base (BHP, RIO, TECK, SCCO, HBM, VALE, FCX) is investing in expansion but cannot close the deficit within this decade. This creates a structural pricing floor for copper and a margin headwind for all power infrastructure equipment manufacturers who consume copper as a primary input.