Nextdecade Corp (NEXT) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure

——Mkt cap — · 52-wk —–— · YTD — · delayed
Updated Sep 22, 2026Q2 FY2026 reviewed
NextDecade is building a natural gas liquefaction and export facility near Brownsville, Texas — an LNG export business with no AI-infrastructure exposure, gated by global gas markets rather than by data centers, chips, or compute.
T1&2 74% built
Trains 1 and 2 at 74% in June 2026, up from 67.8% in March.
25.3 MTPA sold
14 counterparties contracted for Phase 1, ~84% of ~30 MTPA.
>$14B order book
$3.5B of BBB- notes priced; ~$4.6B of Phase 1 bank debt retired.
No AI revenue
LNG sales; AI appears as a cost headwind for equipment and labour.
The Buildout Takeaway
Phase 1 is contracted and tracking ahead of its guaranteed completion dates, and the June-July financings reset the debt stack into investment-grade form. The next tests are first LNG, guided for 1H 2027, and a Train 6 FID targeted for 2H 2027 that depends on SPAs that have not been signed. The demand driver here is global LNG supply and price, not AI infrastructure.
Analyst coverage
9 analysts·4 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Coverage is thin — only 1 price estimate, so no target is shown
Management guidance
Bay Runner pipeline in-service Q3 2026 • LNG Tank 1 completion before end-2026 • narrowed first-LNG window targeted Q4 2026 • first LNG from Train 1 1H 2027 • Train 6 FID 2H 2027, contingent on commercial support and financing
Important: The Buildout is a data analytics platform. Content is generated by algorithms and AI agents using public filings, earnings transcripts, and market data. This is not personalized investment advice.
Our View

The Verdict

NextDecade is building the Rio Grande LNG Facility, a natural gas liquefaction and export terminal in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas. The facility takes natural gas, cools it into liquid form, and loads it onto ships for delivery to buyers under long-term contracts. The company describes itself as moving from an LNG development company to an LNG operating company. Its output is a globally traded commodity, and the source material identifies no AI-linked revenue, product, or customer demand — AI appears only as a competing bidder for the equipment and labour the project buys.

Market Cap—
Revenue (TTM)$0M
Net Debt$10.5B
Earnings Beats4 of 7
P/E (TTM)—
EV/EBITDA (TTM)—

What We Like

  • The 10-Q discloses SPAs with 14 creditworthy counterparties for approximately 25.3 MTPA of LNG from Trains 1 through 5 — roughly 84% of the ~30 MTPA of five-train capacity.
  • Trains 1 and 2 reached 74% complete by June 2026, up from 67.8% in March, with management saying Phase 1 continues to track ahead of guaranteed substantial completion dates.
  • The June-July financings paid down approximately $4.6 billion of Phase 1 bank borrowings using net proceeds of a $1 billion term loan and $3.5 billion of 144A notes rated BBB- by S&P and Fitch, priced on an initial order book of over $14 billion.
  • Feed gas is priced off a Houston Ship Channel index that management says trades at a substantial discount to Henry Hub, while 99% of contracts are priced off Henry Hub.
  • Train 6 moved into a formal regulatory process: FERC application filed May 2026, final Environmental Impact Statement set for June 25, 2027, and a Baker Hughes reservation agreement signed in Q2 2026 for the main refrigeration compressors.

What We’re Watching

  • No Train 6 SPA has been announced. Management said it expects 'to see some activities there over the course of the next six months.'
  • First LNG is targeted for 1H 2027, with a narrowed window management said it hopes to provide in Q4 2026. The exact gas-introduction date has been deliberately left unpinned, and the commissioning sequence is still being agreed with Bechtel.
  • The company declined to contract its ~1,275 TBtu of uncontracted early volumes forward: 'We don't want to be short in this market.' An execution slip would leave those volumes to be sold in whatever market exists then.
  • O&M expense was broken out for the first time and is guided to increase through the year, and the 10-Q shows $128.0 million of a $207.3 million quarterly interest cost was capitalized and will migrate into the P&L as trains reach commercial operation.
Bottom Line

On the evidence, the business trajectory is strengthening: construction is ahead of its guaranteed schedule, the LNG market backdrop improved, and the debt stack was termed out into investment-grade form. The caveat is that the company is still pre-revenue, and the largest value driver — Train 6 — has no signed SPA, no finalized EPC contract, and no chosen equity structure, with FID qualified as contingent on commercial support and financing. The open question is whether first LNG lands in 1H 2027 and whether Train 6 commercial support arrives before an FID targeted for 2H 2027.

Next upThe nearest catalysts are the Bay Runner pipeline in-service in Q3 2026 and LNG Tank 1 completion before end-2026, followed by the narrowed first-LNG window management said it hopes to give in Q4 2026. Each tests whether the commissioning chain is holding to the guided schedule.
Last Quarter — Q2 FY2026

Earnings Beat

NextDecade is pre-revenue and pre-operational, and the 2Q 2026 call on 2026-07-30 was a project, financing, and market update rather than an earnings call; no revenue, EPS, or segment profitability figures were reported. The quarter's headline items were financial and construction: a $1 billion Phase 1 project holding company term loan at 7.05% maturing June 2033, a $3.5 billion 144A notes offering rated BBB- by S&P and Fitch with an order book over $14 billion, a $109 million interest rate swap settlement receipt in July, and roughly $4.6 billion of Phase 1 bank borrowings paid down. On site, Trains 1 and 2 reached 74% complete as of June 2026 with commissioning started, and the main substation was energized at 138 kV in May 2026.

MetricQ2 FY2026Q1 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Revenue$0M$0M$0M—
Gross margin————
EBITDA−$47M−$54M−$52M−9.8%
EPS$-0.25$-0.51$-0.23+5.6%
Trains 1 & 2 complete74%67.8%n/a—
We're not prepared to contract for that until we have more certainty around the Train 1, Train 2 startup. We don't want to be short in this market.— Matt Schatzman, CEO, 2026-07-30

Management tone: Management became more forceful that the Middle East supply disruption is durable and more cautious about selling uncontracted early volumes forward — a deliberate change of posture from the prior call, when the company said it expected to sell additional early volumes. Permitting promises were kept: the Train 6 FERC application was filed in May 2026 within the promised window. Deferred items were the exact first-LNG month, the Train 6 equity structure, and the feed-gas contract signing. A new permanent CFO, John Zuklic, joined, succeeding interim CFO Mike Mott.

Management Guidance

Management held its core date: first LNG from Train 1 is targeted for 1H 2027, reaffirmed, and it added a commitment to narrow the first-LNG window in Q4 2026. Train 6 FID is targeted for H2 2027, 'contingent upon obtaining sufficient commercial support and financing,' now anchored to the June 25, 2027 final Environmental Impact Statement. Trains 7 & 8 follow that sequence: pre-file before end-2026, formal application by Q2 2027, final EIS around June 2028, and FID approximately a year after Train 6. On SPA pricing, the call carried the 20-year market at a $2.50-$3.00 fixed fee at 115% of Henry Hub — a market observation, not company guidance. The early-volume and cash-flow figures from the prior call — ~3,800 TBtu total, ~1,275 TBtu uncontracted, ~$2 billion DCF at $5/MMBtu and ~$1.2 billion at $3/MMBtu, with steady-state ~$500 million pre-flip and ~$800 million post-flip and a 3 to 3.5x leverage target — were not re-quantified on the 2Q 2026 call.

Business Trajectory

Trajectory

NextDecade reports no revenue. The numbers that move are construction completion and the capital structure. Trains 1 and 2 advanced from 67.8% complete in March 2026 to 74% in June, with commissioning started; Train 3 rose from 44.2% to over 50%; Train 4 from 10.6% to 15.5%; and Train 5 from 6.8% to 9.4%. Management says Phase 1 tracks ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates and ahead of the schedule embedded in its production guidance. On the cost side, O&M was broken out for the first time and is guided to increase through the year, and the 10-Q shows $128.0 million of a $207.3 million quarterly interest cost was capitalized rather than expensed.

Revenue & Margin Trajectory
RevenueGross margin$0$0$1$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M0%0%Q3'16Q4Q1'17Q2Q3Q4Q1'18Q2Q3Q4Q1'19Q2Q3Q4Q1'20Q2Q3Q4Q1'21Q2Q3Q4Q1'22Q2Q3Q4Q1'23Q2Q3Q4Q1'24Q2Q3Q4Q1'25Q2Q3Q4Q1'26Q2
RevenueGross margin$0$0$1$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M$0M0%0%Q3'16Q4Q1'17Q2Q3Q4Q1'18Q2Q3Q4Q1'19Q2Q3Q4Q1'20Q2Q3Q4Q1'21Q2Q3Q4Q1'22Q2Q3Q4Q1'23Q2Q3Q4Q1'24Q2Q3Q4Q1'25Q2Q3Q4Q1'26Q2
Gross margin as reported.
Share Price — 12 Months
$2$5$8$052-wk high $9Sep '25DecMar '26JunSep '26
52-week range $5–$9.
Share Price — 12 Months
$2$5$8$052-wk high $9Sep '25DecMar '26JunSep '26
52-week range $5–$9.
The Numbers

The Model

The model projects FY+1 revenue of $0M and EBITDA of -$225M (0.0% margin), and FY+2 revenue of $950M with EBITDA of $285M (30.0% margin). Dispersion across the five runs behind the FY+2 revenue figure is wide: a 71% spread, from a minimum of $600M to a maximum of $1,275M.

Revenue & EBITDA Projections
REVENUE$0M$0M$950MFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)EBITDA & MARGIN−$214M−$225M$285MFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)
REVENUE$0M$0M$950MFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)EBITDA & MARGIN−$214M−$225M$285MFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)
Solid bars are reported actuals; outlined bars are model projections — not company guidance.
MetricFY2025Next FY (E)Following FY (E)
Revenue$0M$0M$950M
YoY Growth———
EBITDA−$214M−$225M$285M
EBITDA Margin—0.0%30.0%

Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.

Management held its core date: first LNG from Train 1 is targeted for 1H 2027, reaffirmed, and it added a commitment to narrow the first-LNG window in Q4 2026. Train 6 FID is targeted for H2 2027, 'contingent upon obtaining sufficient commercial support and financing,' now anchored to the June 25, 2027 final Environmental Impact Statement. Trains 7 & 8 follow that sequence: pre-file before end-2026, formal application by Q2 2027, final EIS around June 2028, and FID approximately a year after Train 6. On SPA pricing, the call carried the 20-year market at a $2.50-$3.00 fixed fee at 115% of Henry Hub — a market observation, not company guidance. The early-volume and cash-flow figures from the prior call — ~3,800 TBtu total, ~1,275 TBtu uncontracted, ~$2 billion DCF at $5/MMBtu and ~$1.2 billion at $3/MMBtu, with steady-state ~$500 million pre-flip and ~$800 million post-flip and a 3 to 3.5x leverage target — were not re-quantified on the 2Q 2026 call.

What Could Go Right — and Wrong

What good looks like
  • First LNG lands on or ahead of the guided 1H 2027 date, and the narrowed Q4 2026 window confirms 1H 2027 or better.
  • Train 6 SPAs sign inside the six-month window at the $2.50-$3.00 fixed fee / 115% Henry Hub range management described for the 20-year market, converting a pipeline management says is larger than Train 6 into contracted volumes.
  • Additional early-cargo sales clear at margins above the $5/MMBtu guidance figure, with ~1,275 TBtu held uncontracted.
  • Train 6 reaches FID in 2H 2027 with sufficient commercial support and financing in place.
  • Debottlenecking or an accretive purchase of additional operating interests in Phase 1, Train 4, or Train 5 raises NextDecade's share of distributions without new construction.
What could go wrong
  • First LNG slips beyond its guided 1H 2027 window, leaving deliberately uncontracted early volumes to be sold into a weaker market.
  • No Train 6 SPA signs inside the six-month window, pushing FID past 2H 2027.
  • A Middle East resolution restores supply before new demand absorbs it, meeting scheduled additions including offtake from other Gulf Coast facilities in 2028, Cedar LNG's first exports in late 2028, and possible Qatar expansions.
  • The Houston Ship Channel discount to Henry Hub narrows, compressing the cost leg of contracts including the 25.3 MTPA already sold.
  • Interest and O&M step up before revenue arrives, with capitalized interest migrating into the P&L as trains reach commercial operation.
What’s Next

Looking Ahead

Over the next 12 months the story resolves into a short list of dated tests. Bay Runner is guided in-service in Q3 2026, and LNG Tank 1 completion is a named gating item before end-2026. Management said it hopes to narrow the first-LNG window in Q4 2026, and it expects Train 6 SPA activity within six months. Trains 7 & 8 are to be pre-filed before end-2026 and formally applied for by Q2 2027. Train 6's final Environmental Impact Statement is set for June 25, 2027, ahead of a targeted 2H 2027 FID.

Catalysts
  • Q3 2026Bay Runner in-service — Primary feed-gas path for Trains 1-3; a delay pushes commissioning.
  • Before end-2026LNG Tank 1 completion — Named gating item before feed gas introduction.
  • Before end-2026Trains 7 & 8 pre-file — Next expansion step after Train 6; formal application targeted by Q2 2027.
  • Q4 2026Narrowed first-LNG window — Shows whether the 1H 2027 target narrows or extends.
  • Next six monthsTrain 6 SPA activity — Converts a pipeline 'larger than the capacity of Train 6' into signed volumes.
  • June 25, 2027Train 6 final EIS — Anchors the FID targeted for 2H 2027.
Numbers

Financials

Annual Summary

MetricFY2024FY2025TTMYoY
Revenue$0M$0M$0M—
Gross Margin————
EBITDA−$164M−$214M−$212M-30.0%
EBITDA Margin————
Net Income−$62M−$306M−$359M-396.0%
Free Cash Flow−$2.7B−$5.3B−$3.9B—
Net Cash————

Key Ratios (Trailing)

Valuation
  • P/E TTM—
  • EV/EBITDA TTM—
  • EV/Revenue TTM—
  • Price/FCF TTM—
Profitability
  • ROIC-1.7%
Reference

The Company

NextDecade is building the Rio Grande LNG Facility, a natural gas liquefaction and export terminal in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas. The 10-K describes the company as engaged in construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas and sale of LNG. The first five liquefaction trains and related infrastructure — Phase 1, Train 4, and Train 5 — are under construction and expected to produce approximately 30 MTPA of LNG across the five trains. Trains 6 through 8 are in permitting, and the site target is up to 60 million tonnes per annum of LNG capacity. The company is pre-revenue today.

NextDecade operates as a single reportable segment, the Rio Grande LNG Facility, covering the five trains under construction and Trains 6-8 in permitting. Construction is completed by Bechtel Energy Inc. under fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey EPC contracts — a sole-source arrangement — using a direct-hire model with over 6,000 workers on site daily as of June 2026. Feed gas arrives primarily through the Bay Runner pipeline, built by Whistler LLC, a joint venture of WhiteWater Midstream, Enbridge, and MPLX, with a Valley Crossing Pipeline hot tap as redundancy; gas is bought primarily at the Agua Dulce hub. NextDecade's economic interest in the project companies is partial: up to approximately 20.8% of Phase 1 distributions, 40% of Train 4 distributions stepping to 60%, and 50% of Train 5 distributions stepping to 70% once partners clear a return threshold.

Business Segments

Rio Grande LNG Facility
Site target up to 60 MTPA; five trains under construction expected ~30 MTPA
One reportable segment: five liquefaction trains under construction, Trains 6-8 in permitting.
Growth driver: Train 6 FID targeted for 2H 2027

Competitive Landscape

The 10-K states the company plans to operate in a highly competitive area of LNG production and faces intense competition from independent, technology-driven companies and from major and other independent oil and natural gas companies and utilities. Management describes a competitive market rather than an exclusive one, saying 'this is a competitive market, you can't just go out and pick whatever price you want to sell for,' and the differentiator it claims is cost and speed-to-FID. The supply-chain wiring file names Freeport LNG, Kinder Morgan, Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global as competitors. On the 2Q 2026 call, management referenced Cheniere's Corpus Christi facility as connected to the Agua Dulce hub.

  • Cheniere (LNG)
    Named in the supply-chain wiring file; management referenced Cheniere's Corpus Christi facility as connected to the Agua Dulce hub.
  • Freeport LNG
    Named in the supply-chain wiring file; not discussed.
  • Kinder Morgan (KMI)
    Named in the supply-chain wiring file; not discussed.
  • Sempra (SRE)
    Named in the supply-chain wiring file; not discussed.
  • Venture Global (VG)
    Named in the supply-chain wiring file; not discussed.
Competitor names come from the supply-chain wiring file, which is spider-sourced; only Cheniere is referenced on the 2Q 2026 call, and only in relation to the Agua Dulce hub.

Supply Chain

NextDecade sits between South Texas gas producers and global LNG buyers: it buys feed gas at Agua Dulce, liquefies it at Rio Grande, and ships under long-term contracts. Two verified suppliers, MPLX and Enbridge, mention the project by name but did not update its schedule.

Sole Source
Bechtel Energy Inc.
Sole-source, fully wrapped lump-sum turnkey EPC for Phase 1, Train 4 and Train 5
Supplier
Baker Hughes
Reservation agreement for Train 6 main refrigeration compressors, executed Q2 2026
Supplier
Enbridge (Whistler LLC)
Co-owner of Whistler LLC, builder of the Bay Runner feed-gas pipeline
Supplier
MPLX (Whistler LLC)
Co-owner of Whistler LLC; Bay Runner transport to the Rio Grande LNG Facility
Supplier
Dynagas
Long-term LNG vessel charters for the Phase 1 DES business
Supplier
Emerson
Automation for the Train 4 and 5 expansion
→
Discounted Agua Dulce feed gas
NEXT
Rio Grande LNG Facility, Brownsville, Texas
→
14 counterparties
25.3 MTPA
Long-term SPAs for Trains 1 through 5, per the 10-Q
TotalEnergies
>10% owner
Related party and Phase 1 equity contributor, per the 10-Q

Related companies

Likely customers
EQT · EQT
Likely suppliers
EMR · Emerson ElectricENB · EnbridgeMPLX · MPLX LpBKR · Baker Hughes CoHON · Honeywell International
Likely competitors
KMI · Kinder MorganSRE · Sempra

See all Utilities & Energy companies → · How this layer works: Chapter 8, Grid, Gas & Fibre →

Analysis updated Sep 22, 2026, reviewing Q2 FY2026. Prices delayed. Built with The Buildout’s published methodology. Not investment advice. No positions held. © The Buildout 2026.

More on NEXT: Earnings recap