Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Newmark is a commercial real estate advisor and service provider to large institutional investors, global corporations, owners, and occupiers. Its AI-infrastructure role sits in the transaction and advisory layer: when data centers, compute sites, and digital-infrastructure assets are sold, financed, leased, valued, project-managed, or serviced, Newmark earns fees. Management describes a shift toward behind-the-meter power, distributed power, and powered land, which creates complex structuring work rather than commoditized brokerage.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.6B |
| Revenue Growth | +20.8% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 12.8% |
| Net Debt | $480M |
| Earnings Beats | 7 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Management services, servicing & other has grown double digits for 8 consecutive quarters and set a fourth consecutive record quarter in Q2 2026, up 17.7% y/y.
- Capital markets has 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth; Newmark moved to #2 in U.S. investment sales for H1 2026 per MSCI.
- Servicing and asset management portfolio reached a record $222.1 billion at Q1 2026, up 19.2% y/y; management targets over $2 billion management and servicing revenue by 2029 from about $1.3 billion TTM.
- Q2 2026 TTM adjusted free cash flow was $391.1 million, 85.3% of adjusted earnings, near the high end of the 65–85% target.
- Capital allocation pivoted to M&A: Altus Development Advisory is expected to close September 1, 2026, and the L+P German valuation acquisition was announced August 6, 2026.
What We’re Watching
- H2 2026 comps: H2 2025 grew +20%, and Q2 2025 included a $7 billion transaction; management held guidance citing large transactions as chunky and difficult to time.
- Q3 2026 call: management said it will update guidance next quarter, testing whether H2 pipeline and timing support the maintained FY2026 range.
- CEO succession: Barry Gosin steps down as CEO December 31, 2026; no successor is named in available material.
- AI/data-center disclosure gap: no AI or data-center revenue line or backlog is disclosed, so the data-center opportunity cannot be quantified from current filings.
The operating thesis remains intact: all three service lines are growing double digits, the recurring servicing base is compounding, and the capital-markets share-gain evidence strengthened in H1 2026. The main open question is whether the data-center and AI pipeline is material enough to move the business, given there is no disclosed AI or data-center revenue line.
Earnings Beat
Q2 2026 revenue was $887.8 million, up 17.0% y/y from $759.1 million, an all-time Q2 record. Gross margin was 94.9% in the quarter. The standout was management services, servicing & other, which grew 17.7% y/y to a fourth consecutive record quarter.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $888M | $847M | $759M | +17.0% |
| Gross margin | 94.9% | 94.5% | — | — |
| EBITDA | $86M | $73M | $83M | +3.7% |
| EPS | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.08 | −5.4% |
| Management services, servicing & other | +17.7% y/y | +21.2% y/y | n/a | +17.7% |
We have now produced double-digit year-on-year revenue growth for 11 quarters in a row in Capital Markets. 8 consecutive quarters in management and servicing and 7 straight quarters in leasing.— Barry Gosin, CEO, July 29, 2026
Management tone: Management's tone remained confident on operating momentum, with repeated record and streak language on the Q2 2026 call, but measured on near-term guidance. The company held FY2026 guidance and tied the decision to tougher H2 2025 comps, timing uncertainty on large transactions, and macro uncertainty.
Management Guidance
FY2026 guidance remained unchanged on the Q2 2026 call after Q1's raise. Management cited total revenues growth of roughly +16%, adjusted EPS growth of roughly +19%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of roughly +20% at the midpoint. The stated reasons for holding were H2 2025 growth of +20%, timing uncertainty on large transactions, and macro uncertainty.
Trajectory
Year-over-year revenue growth stepped down from +27.2% in Q1 to +17.0% in Q2, as management had signaled on tougher 2025 comparisons. Sequentially, revenue moved from $1,006M in Q4 FY2025 to $847.2M in Q1 FY2026 and $887.8M in Q2 FY2026. As-reported EBITDA margin is compressing, while management's adjusted EBITDA margin improved 65 bps in Q2 and would have been about 100 bps higher excluding pass-through items and growth investments.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $3,900 million and EBITDA of $554 million, a 14.2% EBITDA margin. FY+2 revenue is $4,450 million and EBITDA is $685 million, a 15.4% margin. The near-term projection is anchored by double-digit but normalizing service-line growth; FY+2 assumes continued expansion of the recurring management and servicing base and some large transaction conversion.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.3B | $3.9B | $4.5B |
| YoY Growth | — | +18.4% | +14.1% |
| EBITDA | $415M | $554M | $685M |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 8.0% above analyst consensus.
FY2026 guidance remained unchanged on the Q2 2026 call after Q1's raise. Management cited total revenues growth of roughly +16%, adjusted EPS growth of roughly +19%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of roughly +20% at the midpoint. The stated reasons for holding were H2 2025 growth of +20%, timing uncertainty on large transactions, and macro uncertainty.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Capital markets pipeline converts at a pace that supports a Q3 guidance raise despite tougher H2 comps.
- Data center and digital infrastructure revenue is disclosed and proves material, making the AI exposure measurable.
- Management and servicing stays on its mid-teens path toward over $2 billion by 2029 from the record servicing base.
- Germany follows France to early profitability, and international growth outside the U.S. and U.K. continues near Q1's +37.9%.
- Announced M&A closes and integrates without disrupting the underlying margin expansion.
- Large data-center and capital-markets transactions slip further, and H2 2025 comps of +20% make y/y growth fade.
- AI and data-center exposure stays qualitative and unquantified, while rivals disclose faster critical-infrastructure growth.
- CEO succession becomes disruptive: Gosin leaves December 31, 2026 with no named successor, and producer retention weakens.
- Multifamily and GSE volumes slow on rates or credit spread widening, directly hitting capital markets.
- Germany, Italy, and infrastructure-management investments take longer to mature, keeping reported margin expansion below underlying progress.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months hinge on three dated items: the Altus Development Advisory acquisition expected to close September 1, 2026; the Q3 2026 call where management said it will update guidance; and the December 31, 2026 CEO transition. Management describes the debt pipeline as really strong through the back half and the GSE pipeline as pretty robust, very strong, while large data-center transactions remain chunky and difficult to time.
- September 1, 2026Altus Development Advisory close — Tests M&A execution; adds North America and APAC development advisory operations.
- Q3 2026Quarterly guidance update — Management said it will update FY2026 guidance next quarter; tests H2 pipeline.
- H2 2026Data center financing conversions — Tests whether the robust pipeline becomes named transactions despite lumpy timing.
- December 31, 2026Barry Gosin steps down as CEO — Tests succession plan; no successor named in available material.
- Full-year 2026MSCI U.S. investment sales rankings — Tests whether Newmark holds the #2 H1 position for the full year.
- By 2029Management services $2B target — Long-range goal: over $2 billion management and servicing revenue by 2029.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | $3.3B | $3.6B | +20.3% |
| Gross Margin | — | 95.3% | 94.9% | — |
| EBITDA | $337M | $415M | $4.5B | +23.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.8% | +29bps |
| Net Income | $61M | $126M | $148M | +106.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$42M | $155M | $1.1B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)94.9%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)12.8%
- Net Margin (TTM)4.1%
- ROIC9.8%
- FCF Conversion176.8%
- SBC / Revenue6.0%
The Company
Newmark is a commercial real estate advisor and service provider to large institutional investors, global corporations, owners, and occupiers. For the year ended December 31, 2025, it generated revenues of approximately $3.3 billion. Its services include capital markets, GSE/FHA lending, loan servicing and asset management, leasing, property management, valuation, and occupier solutions. The AI-infrastructure relevance comes through transaction and advisory work tied to data-center and digital-infrastructure investment sales, debt placement and structured finance, power and powered-land advisory, and emerging technical facilities management.
Newmark operates one reportable segment, real estate services, and management presents results across management services, servicing & other, leasing, and capital markets. It is headquartered at 125 Park Avenue in New York, with a lease of roughly 150,000 square feet expiring in 2042. The company uses warehouse facilities including $1.5 billion of committed loan funding, $1.1 billion of uncommitted loan funding through three commercial banks, and a $500 million uncommitted Fannie Mae loan repurchase facility; its revolving credit facility was increased to $900 million after Q1 2026.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Newmark's 10-K lists large multinational commercial real estate platforms such as CBRE, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, and Savills, plus specialized firms including Berkadia, Eastdil Secured, Knight Frank, and Walker & Dunlop. Management presents Newmark as a share-taker: #2 in U.S. investment sales for H1 2026 per MSCI, and the only full-service real estate intermediary in Real Estate Alert's 2025 top-10 real estate M&A ranking.
- Named in 10-K; source read-through shows leasing +18% global / +21% U.S., data center leasing tripled, and critical infrastructure revenue expected to grow >60% in 2026.
- Named in 10-K; source read-through shows investment sales +27%, debt advisory +30%, equity advisory +75%, and data centers contributing to leasing, capital markets, and project management.
- Cushman & Wakefield PLCNamed in 10-K; source read-through shows record Q1 leasing, capital markets +14% global / +22% Americas, and 50 APAC data center technical advisory projects.
- Named in 10-K; source read-through shows capital markets +43% and transaction services +25%, with management calling the recovery early to mid-innings.
- Savills plcNamed in 10-K; not discussed.
Supply Chain
Newmark sits in the capital-markets, leasing, and managed-services layer of the commercial real estate and data-center value chain. No neighbor transcript mentioned Newmark by name.
More on NMRK: Earnings recap