Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Energy Vault builds battery, gravity, and hydrogen energy-storage systems along with VaultOS energy-management software and AI-based dispatch. For the AI buildout, it packages powered land, powered shells, and storage-plus-generation behind the meter, then owns or operates those assets. That matters because power availability is the gating factor for data-center expansion.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $217M |
| Revenue Growth | +361.7% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -32.3% |
| Net Debt | $105M |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Backlog up 108% YoY, with over 80% tied to owned assets.
- MW under control above 1 GW — more than doubled sequentially and up over 500% YoY.
- 100 MW of Powered Land/Powered Shell added in Q1, expected to generate $65M recurring EBITDA over 12–18 months.
- Management says AI-infrastructure megawatts deliver 5x–10x the EBITDA per MW of standalone storage.
- Recurring EBITDA visibility was raised to over $180M, ahead of prior targets.
What We’re Watching
- SOSA project financing targeted Q2 2026; Stoney Creek financing targeted H2 2026 — source does not confirm either closed.
- Powered Shell 25 MW first deliveries begin Q4 2026; Powered Land 75 MW targets January 2027 COD.
- ERCOT merchant weakness acknowledged for 12–18 months, pressuring early operating asset returns.
- Tariffs on China-origin B-VAULT products have already caused disclosed delays or cancellations.
The thesis is strengthening on the evidence that owned assets now dominate backlog and capacity under control doubled sequentially. It has not yet crossed into reported profitability, and the bridge from assets under control to operating cash flow still runs through financing and construction. The open question is whether management can convert $1.35B of backlog and more than 1 GW under control into the promised recurring EBITDA on schedule.
Earnings
Q1 2026 revenue was $21.9M, up 156% year over year. Per the financial data, gross margin was 11.7% and EBITDA was -$22.0M, while management reported adjusted gross margin of 27.9% and adjusted EBITDA of -$13.6M. The standout was the asset base: backlog reached $1.35B and megawatts under control surpassed 1 GW.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22M | $153M | $8M | +157.6% |
| Gross margin | 11.7% | 20.6% | 57.1% | -4540bps |
| EBITDA | −$22M | −$4M | −$21M | +6.8% |
| EPS | $-0.19 | $-0.12 | $-0.14 | +37.7% |
| MW under management | 1.1 GW | 440 MW | n/a | up >500% YoY |
| Developed pipeline | $3.5B / >3.5 GW | $3B+ / 1.8 GW | n/a | — |
We have added 100 megawatts of Powered Land and Powered Shell just this quarter. That alone is going to be expected to generate $65 million in recurring EBITDA in the next 12 months to 18 months.— Robert Piconi, Chief Executive Officer, Q1 2026 earnings call, May 5, 2026
Management tone: Management's tone shifted from describing a future transition to asserting it is now visible. They were direct on project timing, margin mix, and revenue cadence, candid about ERCOT weakness and revenue lumpiness, but guarded on Powered Land counterparty names and Japan offtake pricing.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance on the Q1 2026 call: revenue $225 million to $300 million, gross margin 15% to 25%, year-end cash $150 million to $200 million, and internal Asset Vault builds of $75 million to $100 million. CFO Michael Beer described a back-end loaded year with no quarterly guidance. The August 11, 2026 press release says full-year revenue and gross margin guidance were raised, but the new figures are not included in the supplied source material.
Trajectory
Reported revenue is volatile and decelerating: $153.3M in Q4 2025 fell to $21.9M in Q1 2026 (-85.7% QoQ). The drop reflects EPC timing and the fact that owned-asset construction does not flow through revenue. Gross margin is compressing, and the year is expected to be back-end loaded; management says AI-infrastructure power packages are the bridge that keeps recognized revenue growing while owned projects are built.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $275.0M and EBITDA of -$55M (-20.0% margin). FY+2 revenue is projected at $330M with EBITDA of $10M (3.1% margin). The near-term is anchored by management's back-end-loaded EPC year; FY+2 reflects owned assets and AI power packages beginning to contribute.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $204M | $275M | $330M |
| YoY Growth | — | +35.1% | +20.0% |
| EBITDA | −$69M | −$55M | $10M |
| EBITDA Margin | -33.7% | -20.0% | 3.1% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance on the Q1 2026 call: revenue $225 million to $300 million, gross margin 15% to 25%, year-end cash $150 million to $200 million, and internal Asset Vault builds of $75 million to $100 million. CFO Michael Beer described a back-end loaded year with no quarterly guidance. The August 11, 2026 press release says full-year revenue and gross margin guidance were raised, but the new figures are not included in the supplied source material.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Powered Land 75 MW reaches commercial operation in January 2027 on schedule, adding roughly $35M annual EBITDA.
- Powered Shell 25 MW deliveries start in Q4 2026 and ramp over 12–18 months at $1.5M–$2.0M EBITDA per MW per year.
- SOSA and Stoney Creek project financings close in Q2/H2 2026 and construction starts.
- The 925 MW load study supports expanding the first Powered Land site toward roughly 1 GW.
- Japan's 350 MW near-term projects close and convert the 850 MW portfolio into construction.
- Project financing slips or terms weaken; SOSA, Stoney Creek, and Japan financing remain incomplete in the supplied record.
- Tariff or sole-source supply disruption causes more B-VAULT delivery delays or cancellations.
- The 81% revenue customer reduces activity or fails to pay, given 82% receivables concentration.
- ERCOT merchant weakness persists past management's acknowledged 12–18 months and holds down early asset returns.
- Owned-asset COD dates slip, delaying the promised margin shift from 20–25% to 60–80% IPP margins.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months, the story tests execution: a decision on the 925 MW Powered Land load study is due within 3–6 months from May 2026, Powered Shell deliveries start in Q4 2026, and the 75 MW Powered Land site targets commercial operation in January 2027. Management also expects formal announcements naming the utility and hyperscaler counterparties during 2026, and Stoney Creek financing remains targeted for H2 2026.
- Within 3–6 months from May 2026925 MW load study decision — Tests whether first Powered Land site can move toward roughly 1 GW.
- During 2026Formal counterparty announcements — Names of Southwest utility and hyperscaler for Powered Land.
- Q4 2026Powered Shell first deliveries — 25 MW Crusoe deliveries begin; 12–18 month ramp.
- H2 2026Stoney Creek project financing — 125 MW / 1.0 GWh financing close and construction start.
- January 2027Powered Land 75 MW COD — Commercial operation; expected roughly $35M annual EBITDA.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46M | $204M | $217M | +339.7% |
| Gross Margin | 24.7% | 33.6% | 21.0% | +890bps |
| EBITDA | −$129M | −$69M | −$426M | +46.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | -278.4% | -33.7% | -32.3% | +24,466bps |
| Net Income | −$136M | −$104M | −$115M | +23.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$115M | −$47M | −$418M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)21.0%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-32.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)-52.9%
- ROIC-45.3%
- SBC / Revenue11.2%
The Company
Energy Vault is an integrated energy and power infrastructure platform. It delivers battery storage (B-VAULT), gravity storage (G-VAULT), hydrogen storage (H-VAULT), and VaultOS energy management software with AI-based dispatch. For AI data centers, it packages Powered Land, Powered Shell, and storage plus generation plus UPS behind the meter. The AI buildout matters because power availability is the gating factor for data center expansion.
The company operates a third-party project delivery business through EPC and engineered equipment models and an Own & Operate segment that develops, owns, and operates storage assets. It has no disclosed owned battery cell or module factory and relies on third-party suppliers, some sole-sourced. Delivery spans the U.S., Australia, Japan, and Europe. Internal owned-asset construction does not flow through recognized revenue.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The supplied source material does not identify specific energy-storage competitors by name. The financial facts block includes a utilities-power-producers peer cohort (n=7) with forward EV/FY+2-EBITDA median of 10.6x, p25 8.1x, and p75 13.2x.
Supply Chain
Energy Vault sits between component suppliers and power customers/utilities, integrating storage, generation, and software into operating assets. No neighbor transcript in the supplied batch mentioned NRGV by name; most wiring remains inferred.
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