Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Energy Vault builds energy storage systems and the power infrastructure that sits behind the meter at data centers. It began as a project-delivery business, selling battery, gravity and hydrogen storage systems to third parties, and has since moved into developing, owning and operating some of those assets itself. What makes it relevant to the AI buildout is speed: gas generation, batteries and orchestration software assembled on a customer's own site, rather than waiting for a grid interconnection. The software layer — the power plant controller and dispatch system — is what management credits with turning those components into what it calls "five nines" power.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $226M |
| Revenue Growth | +336.9% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -28.8% |
| Net Debt | $152M |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Backlog more than 2x the prior year as of Aug. 10, 2026.
- The 1.25 GW hyperscale agreement carries margins consistent with the 20%–25% range that management expects to continue into 2027.
- Owned and operated assets carry 70%–80% gross margins and 7–15 year revenue streams; that mix is about 60% of the backlog.
- Two owned assets are running: Cross Trails at 99.4% availability year-to-date, and the Calistoga microgrid above 99% under a 10.5-year PG&E arrangement.
- Cash including restricted cash was $148M at June 30, 2026, which management describes as a sixth straight quarter of increasing cash.
What We’re Watching
- Q4 2026 concentration: management says a vast majority of second-half revenue is expected in the fourth quarter — a back-end-loaded year two years running.
- Sosa project financing was expected in Q2 2026; the Q2 call said only that it was "well underway," with no close announced.
- The Q2 cash increase was partly debt-funded — an AR facility was drawn for supply-chain deposits ahead of Q4 deliveries.
The case is doing two things at once. On contracts it is strengthening: backlog moved from ~$400M at the end of 2024 to ~$2B in August 2026, the 1.25 GW agreement is the largest in company history, and management reaffirmed a ~$180M recurring EBITDA run-rate. On reported economics it is not yet proven: revenue fell about 20% sequentially in Q2 2026, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened year over year, and most of the AI-linked revenue is weighted to Q4 2026 and 2027. The open question is whether that Q4 concentration converts on schedule and whether the 70%–80% gross margins attached to owned assets show up in reported results as those assets reach commercial operation.
Earnings
Energy Vault reported Q2 2026 revenue of $17.4M on Aug. 11, 2026, up 104% from $8.5M a year earlier and driven by Australian projects. GAAP gross margin was 31%, up 140 basis points year over year, and adjusted gross margin was 38.6%. The company still posted a GAAP net loss of $29.7M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.0M, wider than the $13.6M loss a year earlier.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17M | $22M | $8M | +104.7% |
| Gross margin | 31.0% | 11.7% | 29.6% | +140bps |
| EBITDA | −$23M | −$22M | −$28M | −18.1% |
| EPS | $-0.17 | $-0.19 | $-0.22 | −25.2% |
| Backlog | ~$2B | $1.35B | n/a | More than 2x YoY |
| Cash including restricted cash | $148M | $117.1M | $58M | +$90M YoY |
we recently announced a 1.25 gigawatt agreement, which is our largest contract in the history of the company, to support an integrated power generation and storage solution for hyperscale data centers.— Robert Piconi, CEO, 2026-08-11
Management tone: In Q1 2026 management described the transition to an integrated storage IPP as complete and used re-rating language. On the Q2 2026 call the register shifted to execution: raised guidance, a record contract, two new disclosure slides, and a sharper focus on near-term conversion. That call also carried two candid admissions — that the largest-ever contract is build-and-transfer, which management said "may have been a little bit of a surprise," and that the cash build was supported by drawing an AR facility. Nitin Dahiya joined as CFO from BlackRock and led his first earnings call.
Management Guidance
On the Q2 2026 call management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $270M–$310M from $225M–$300M, narrowed GAAP gross margin to 20%–25% from 15%–25%, and lifted year-end cash to $160M–$200M from $150M–$200M. Internal Asset Vault project builds were held at $75M–$100M, and the ~$180M annualized recurring EBITDA target was reaffirmed. Management said a vast majority of second-half revenue is expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter.
Trajectory
Revenue is lumpy rather than smooth: $33.3M in Q3 2025, $153.3M in Q4 2025, $21.9M in Q1 2026 and $17.4M in Q2 2026 — the signature of a business that recognizes a large share of the year in the final quarter. Q2 2026 revenue was up 104% year over year but down about 20% sequentially. Gross margin was 31% on a GAAP basis, up 140 basis points year over year, and 38.6% adjusted; management attributes the earlier Q1 compression to lower IP licensing revenue rather than price, and the Q2 expansion to project mix and execution. Costs are running ahead of revenue: adjusted operating expenses rose to $23.7M in Q2 2026 from $16.2M a year earlier.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $300M with EBITDA of -$42M (-14.0%), and FY+2 revenue of $675M with EBITDA of $50M (7.4%). The near-term anchor is management's own FY2026 revenue guidance of $270M–$310M and the Q4-weighted delivery schedule; the FY+2 swing to positive EBITDA depends on owned assets reaching commercial operation and lifting the margin mix. The model flags wide dispersion: the FY+2 revenue spread across its five runs is 30%, from $600M to $800M.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $204M | $300M | $675M |
| YoY Growth | — | +47.3% | +125.0% |
| EBITDA | −$69M | −$42M | $50M |
| EBITDA Margin | -33.7% | -14.0% | 7.4% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
On the Q2 2026 call management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $270M–$310M from $225M–$300M, narrowed GAAP gross margin to 20%–25% from 15%–25%, and lifted year-end cash to $160M–$200M from $150M–$200M. Internal Asset Vault project builds were held at $75M–$100M, and the ~$180M annualized recurring EBITDA target was reaffirmed. Management said a vast majority of second-half revenue is expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- The 1.25 GW agreement delivers in Q4 2026 and 2027 at 20%–25% margins, converting the largest contract in company history into reported revenue.
- Owned assets reach commercial operation on the stated timeline — Crusoe's 25 MW starting Q4 2026 and Mesa del Sol's 75 MW in January 2027 — bringing 70%–80% gross-margin revenue into the mix.
- Project financing closes on Sosa, Stoney Creek and the 350 MW Japan portfolio without further corporate equity or convertible issuance.
- The 1.25 GW platform repeats with additional awards, turning a single large contract into a product line.
- Backlog reaches the guided ~$3B by year-end 2026 with the owned share of it growing.
- A slip of the Q4 2026 revenue concentration moves the full-year guide and the credibility of the forward numbers with it.
- Owned-asset commercial operation dates slip, leaving an IPP-level cost structure supported by EPC-level margins.
- Further corporate equity or convertible issuance extends the dilution and leverage trajectory.
- Loss of, or a material slowdown from, the unnamed hyperscaler or EPC partner behind the incremental backlog.
- Renewed tariff escalation on China-origin lithium-ion batteries delays or cancels more backlog, which the 10-Q says has already happened once.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months are mostly dated. Q4 2026 carries the revenue concentration the full-year guide depends on, along with the first Crusoe powered-shell deliveries and the opening portion of the 1.25 GW contract. Mesa del Sol's 75 MW is scheduled online in January 2027. Project financings at Sosa, Stoney Creek and the Japan 350 MW portfolio are expected to close, and management guides backlog toward ~$3B by year-end 2026.
- Q4 2026Crusoe powered-shell deliveries — Site starts at 8 MW and ramps toward 25 MW initial deployment.
- Q4 20261.25 GW contract begins — A portion of the agreement expected to be recognized.
- January 202775 MW powered land online — Mesa del Sol's first powered-land asset reaches commercial operation.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46M | $204M | $226M | +339.7% |
| Gross Margin | 24.7% | 33.6% | 21.5% | +890bps |
| EBITDA | −$129M | −$69M | −$65M | +46.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | -278.4% | -33.7% | -28.8% | +24,466bps |
| Net Income | −$136M | −$104M | −$110M | +23.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$115M | −$47M | −$145M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)21.5%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-28.8%
- Net Margin (TTM)-48.6%
- ROIC-37.0%
- SBC / Revenue8.8%
The Company
Energy Vault sells energy storage systems. The FY2025 10-K describes "a diversified portfolio of energy storage solutions to third parties, including proprietary gravity, battery, and green hydrogen-based technologies, supported by our technology-agnostic energy management software and integration capabilities." The product set is B-VAULT, a battery system typically sized for one to four hours; G-VAULT, a gravity storage system for longer durations; H-VAULT, a hydrogen and hybrid system for customer-specific resiliency; and a software suite — VaultOS for monitoring and dispatch, Vault-Bidder for AI-driven dispatch and revenue optimization, and Vault-Manager for asset performance. For AI builders the value is the combination: generation, storage and the controls that hold them together at a customer's own site.
The company reports two business lines — Third-Party Project Delivery, which sells and builds storage under EPC and engineered-equipment models, and Own & Operate, which develops, owns and operates assets for recurring revenue — though the Q1 2026 10-Q states that the company has a single reportable segment. Beginning in 2024 it started a multi-year transition away from build-and-transfer and licensing toward owning assets. Its footprint is concentrated in the United States, Australia and Japan. Financing is largely arranged at the project level, with an in-house team led by Cory Magnuson, appointed President of Asset Vault in Q2 2026.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The FY2025 10-K names competitors in both durations. For shorter-duration battery storage it lists Tesla, Fluence Energy, FlexGen Power Systems, Sungrow Power Supply and other integrators and OEMs. For longer duration it lists ESS Inc., Eos Energy Enterprises, Hydrostor, Primus Power, Form Energy, Gravitricity and other solid-state battery manufacturers. The company buys its batteries, inverters, enclosures and transformers from third parties, in some cases sole-sourced. Management points to three things as its differentiation: the orchestration software it says was decisive in the 1.25 GW award, demonstrated availability on live assets, and the relationship pattern of starting small with a partner and growing into a framework agreement.
- TeslaNamed in the 10-K as a shorter-duration battery-storage competitor; not discussed further.
- Fluence EnergyNamed in the 10-K as a shorter-duration battery-storage competitor; not discussed further.
- Sungrow Power SupplyNamed in the 10-K as a shorter-duration battery-storage competitor; not discussed further.
- ESS Inc.Named in the 10-K as a longer-duration storage competitor; not discussed further.
- Eos Energy EnterprisesNamed in the 10-K as a longer-duration storage competitor; not discussed further.
Supply Chain
Energy Vault sits between component suppliers and power buyers. It buys batteries, inverters, enclosures and transformers from a limited group of third-party suppliers — in some cases sole-sourced — and integrates them into storage and power systems it delivers to, or owns on behalf of, utilities, power marketers and data-center operators.
More on NRGV: Earnings recap