Earnings Recap — Q2 FY2026
CY Q3 2026 · Reported August 6, 2026 · Beat 2 of last 7 quarters
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Century's strong quarter and full-capacity operations underscore the tight global aluminum market, driven in part by demand from power and data infrastructure buildout. The company's ability to bring new US capacity online and its Oklahoma project, supported by the new executive order, position it to benefit from the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout's demand for aluminum in power and data center construction.
Century completed the Mt. Holly expansion (final 90 pots) and the restart of Grundartangi Line 2, bringing all assets to full capacity for the first time in over a decade. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $327M, up $96M sequentially, driven by higher LME and regional premiums and increased volumes. The company reduced net debt to $98M and ended July with cash exceeding total debt. Jamalco brought its new TG4 turbine online in early August, expected to eliminate grid purchases and provide a ~$20/ton cost benefit. The company also highlighted the new executive order providing tariff benefits for new US production and progress on the Oklahoma smelter project.
Management expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $325M to $345M, with lagged LME and premium changes adding $5M to $10M, volume/mix improving $15M to $25M, offset by $10M to $15M energy headwinds and $5M raw material increases. The Mt. Holly expansion is fully ramped, with full benefit seen in Q3, though some restart instability is expected to be resolved by Q4. Grundartangi Line 2 is near full production, with new transformers to be installed in Q4 to allow a return to full amperage. The company expects strong cash flow conversion in H2 as growth CapEx is complete, and continues to target FID and groundbreaking for the Oklahoma smelter by end of 2026, with first hot metal by end of 2029. Management highlighted the new executive order allowing Century to import up to 300K tons annually at a reduced 25% tariff starting in 2027, which they intend to use to help fund the Oklahoma project.
“When you take the supply and demand picture together, we continue to expect a global deficit of around 1 million tons this year. And we would expect deficit conditions to continue in 2027.”
on Market outlook
“All told, Century's balance sheet has never been stronger. With all short term debt repaid, And as of today, Century's cash on hand exceeds its total debt.”
on Balance sheet
“We are already the largest producer of aluminum in The United States, We employ more American primary aluminum workers than any other company. And thanks to President Trump's leadership and the Section 232 program, we are investing billions more in new and expanded production in Mount Holly and in Oklahoma.”
on US production and policy
Just first wanted to ask about the executive order kind of, where you will ultimately source the metal and just how you value this benefit in terms of EBITDA and cash flow?
Jesse Gary explained the benefit is material, with Century able to import up to 300K tons at a reduced 25% tariff versus 50%, and the benefit would be roughly the tariff differential times the LME price, impacting both EBITDA and cash flow equally. He noted the final rules from Commerce are pending.
Jesse, you mentioned multiple there are multiple sources of potential cash to finance the smelter. And your free cash flow conversion is expected to improve from here Can you talk about a bit about how you are thinking about shareholder returns at this point, especially with your balance sheet being in a very good place?
Jesse Gary reiterated capital allocation priorities: maintain liquidity, sustaining capital, then organic growth (Oklahoma). He said they will return to shareholders once the Oklahoma project details are finalized, and they expect to have plenty of cash to finance the smelter and pursue other priorities including capital returns.
I wanted to ask about Mt. Holly first off. You did not mention them as a potential beneficiary of the new executive order with the 50 thousand thousand ton restart. So is that not potentially eligible, or is it? And then also regarding that I think, Pete, at Mt. Holly, can you quantify the instability and the impact into Q3?
Jesse Gary said Mt. Holly is not eligible because the program is designed for new production coming online, not completed expansions. Pete Trpkovski said the instability is not material, is included in Q3 guidance, and should be fully resolved by Q4, with some additional volume returning then.