Earnings Recap — Q2 FY2026
CY Q3 2026 · Reported July 28, 2026 · Beat 3 of last 7 quarters
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Rio Tinto's results underscore the accelerating demand for copper and aluminum driven by AI and data center buildout, with management highlighting that up to 70% of materials value in a data center comes from their commodities. The company's copper growth pipeline—OT ramp-up, Kennecott expansion, and projects like Resolution—positions it to supply the AI infrastructure buildout, while its lithium projects support battery energy storage for grid firming. The strong free cash flow and productivity gains provide the balance sheet strength to fund these growth projects.
Rio Tinto reported a strong first half with underlying EBITDA up 28% to $14.8 billion, driven by higher copper and aluminum prices and $870 million of banked productivity benefits. Free cash flow rose 75% to $3.2 billion, and the company declared a 43% higher interim dividend of $3.4 billion. Copper was the standout, with EBITDA up 84% and free cash flow more than tripling, supported by the OT ramp-up. Iron ore achieved its highest first-half Pilbara production since 2018, while aluminum EBITDA rose 31% on strong smelting performance. Lithium projects Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida were delivered ahead of schedule, and Simandou is now more than 75% complete.
Management raised the productivity program target to a $1.8 billion year-end run rate, nearly triple the $650 million announced at Capital Markets Day, and said there is 'substantially more to go.' They reaffirmed the 3% CAGR copper equivalent production growth to 2030 and 4% CAGR unit cost reduction, with copper growth anchored by OT ramp-up, Kennecott expansion, and projects like Resolution, La Granja, and Winu. CapEx guidance is unchanged at up to $11 billion for 2026 and 2027, declining to $10 billion from 2028. The company is progressing $5 billion of cash release opportunities in 2026 with a broader pipeline exceeding $10 billion, and remains committed to a 60% payout ratio at the top of its range. Management expressed confidence in sustaining productivity momentum, noting the program is a structural change embedded in the operating culture, not a one-off cost cut.
“We've already banked $870 million to the end of June. I also told you that we would continue to grow the program. Again, we've delivered. Today, I can announce we are targeting a year-end run rate of $1.8 billion, almost triple where we were just 7 months ago.”
on Productivity program
“The broader point is that while commodity prices remain important, creating value for shareholders is increasingly within our control.”
on Value creation
“We have a leading exposure to the biggest trends of our time, world-class assets in the right commodities, providing volume, resilience and upside.”
on Portfolio positioning
Can we talk about the gap between $870 million you've exited at the end of June and the $1.8 billion, the increase there. There's obviously 3 buckets here. There's OpEx, there's CapEx, there's some productivity-related cost out as well. So of that $1 billion increase, how do we actually think about the breakdown of that $1 billion increase?
Simon Trott noted the distinction between banked and run rate, with some transition costs. Peter Cunningham added that the breakdown was roughly $530 million from costs and the rest from volumes, expecting a similar profile for the full year.
The first question is just on the Resolution Copper project. Can you please provide an update on that and what the next steps are for the project and catalyst that we should be looking for?
Simon Trott said the next step is drilling out the ore body, with rigs on site and intersection expected shortly. This will allow characterization of the ore body to inform the development path, learning from OT.
Simon, I just wanted to touch on iron ore. So obviously, very well run under your management quite recently. And now we've found an extra $400 million of productivity gains. And so I guess I'd just like to unpack what exactly that is.
Simon Trott explained that the gains come from empowering frontline teams with better tools and accountability, improving system flows from mine to port, and removing redundant capacity—such as parking up 80 pieces of equipment—which also improves safety and reduces costs.