Earnings Recap — Q2 FY2026
CY Q3 2026 · Reported July 30, 2026 · Beat 5 of last 6 quarters
The Buildout is a website built on agentic AI tools, currently in beta, and could have factual errors.
TC Energy's results reinforce the AI infrastructure buildout thesis, with power generation and data center demand driving over half of the incremental North American gas demand outlook. The company's growing backlog, particularly in the U.S. Heartland and Alberta, positions it to capture significant growth from AI-driven electrification. The strong demand signals from data center developers in Alberta open seasons and the Midwest highlight the accelerating need for natural gas infrastructure to support AI compute buildout.
TC Energy delivered 12% year-over-year comparable EBITDA growth in Q2 2026, with strong contributions from all segments. Bruce Power returned Unit 3 to service more than 7 months ahead of schedule and achieved 99% availability in the quarter. The company sanctioned ~$3B of growth projects year-to-date, including two U.S. projects on the Columbia system and an NGTL expansion, and grew its pending approval backlog to ~$7B. Management also raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to the upper end of the range and highlighted record participation in Alberta open seasons from data center developers.
Management raised its 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance to the upper end of the $11.6–$11.8B range, citing strong operational performance and confidence in execution plans. The 2028 target of $12.6–$13.1B was reaffirmed, with growth driven by asset availability, rate cases, project execution, and commercial optimization. The company sanctioned ~$3B of growth projects year-to-date and expects to sanction Crossroads in Q4. The origination backlog grew to over $20B, with nearly two-thirds tied to power generation, and management expects sustained investment pace growth in 2029–2030 and beyond. Funding will prioritize EBITDA growth and balance sheet strength, with Bruce Power's MCR completion in 2031–2032 unlocking additional capital capacity.
“Our latest outlook now points to an approximately 51 Bcf per day of incremental North American natural gas demand by 2035, and that's a 40% increase over 2025 levels and represents an 11 Bcf a day increase from our original outlook.”
on Demand outlook
“We are now targeting the upper end of our 2026 range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion, reflecting the strong operational performance our teams have delivered year-to-date and our high degree of confidence in our execution plans for the balance of the year.”
on Guidance
“We're seeing about 5 to 6 Bcf of demand growth across the Midwest, representing about a 2 Bcf year-over-year growth expectation out through 2035.”
on Midwest demand
Can we assume the increase to the pending project backlog is basically the Crossroads project? And any more detail on the $5 billion increase to the origination backlog?
Sean confirmed the pending backlog increase is largely Crossroads, slightly north of $1B. The origination backlog grew to $20B+, with about two-thirds U.S. and one-third Canadian, and roughly two-thirds tied to power generation.
When customers are bidding in these projects today, are they effectively underwriting projects based on a tentative new regulatory and return construct?
Francois said the return framework is still to be determined. Open seasons are gauging demand granularity, and discussions with customers on an investment framework are in early stages, with progress expected by year-end.
How does Canadian growth compete for capital versus the U.S., given historically better economics in the U.S.?
Francois noted Canada has a lower-risk regulatory framework, and higher returns would need to be earned. He emphasized portfolio diversification across geographies and regulatory regimes, not just discrete IRR.