Earnings Recap — Q2 FY2026
CY Q3 2026 · Reported July 16, 2026 · Beat 6 of last 7 quarters
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TSMC's raised CapEx guidance and additional $100 billion Arizona investment signal an acceleration of the AI infrastructure buildout, with capacity expansion across leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging. The steep 2nm ramp and strong HPC demand underscore the critical role TSMC plays in enabling AI compute, while the company's comments on agentic AI and CPU resurgence suggest broader silicon demand beyond accelerators.
Q2 FY2026 revenue came in at $40.2 billion, at the high end of guidance, with HPC growing 20% QoQ to 66% of revenue. Gross margin expanded 150 bps QoQ to 67.7%, slightly above guidance. 2nm contributed 3% of wafer revenue in its first quarter of contribution. The company raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to slightly above 40% and increased CapEx guidance to $60-64 billion, citing strong AI demand and the need to expand capacity. Management also announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona and provided updates on A14 technology development, which is on track for volume production in 2028.
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to slightly above 40% YoY in USD terms, citing extremely robust AI demand and the emergence of agentic AI. They raised 2026 CapEx guidance to $60-64 billion, and announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona for 2nm and below fabs plus advanced packaging. Gross margin is expected to be diluted by 3-4 percentage points in 2H26 due to the steep 2nm ramp, partially offset by strong leading-edge demand and cost improvements. Management expressed high conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend, with demand expected to remain strong, and noted the AI CAGR is now stronger than previously guided.
“The AI megatrend continue to drive the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading-edge silicon. Our customers and customers' customer, who are mainly the cloud service provider, continue to provide us with their very strong signal and positive outlook. Thus, our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains very high.”
on AI demand outlook
“I believe from this day on all the way to probably 2029, 2030, the demand is very strong. Whether in between there's a dip or not, I'm not very sure. The trend is so robust that I believe we are witnessing a kind of a new industry. I would like to say the new industry called AI industry, which is so common in our daily life because you're going to affect our automotive, affect the humanoids, robot, and also impact to all the industry.”
on Long-term demand visibility
“We are a partner, a partner meaning that I said many times, our customer got to be successful. I don't want to squeeze them out from the market. Besides, we are very trustable company with our customers. We don't suddenly increase our price by, which I like to have, a 4x or 5x. For your customer to survive for that kind of a price increase. We earn our value, and we make sure that our profit, our gross margin, is enough for our long-term sustaining expansion that's to the benefit of my customer and TSMC also.”
on Pricing philosophy
How does TSMC address competition from Samsung Foundry and Intel, especially with customers engaging with them?
C.C. Wei acknowledged competitors' advantages (Samsung's memory profits, Intel's government support) but emphasized that technology, manufacturing, and customer trust are the fundamentals that win business. He noted that choosing a technology partner is not like buying milk from a convenience store—it takes years of collaboration and no shortcuts.
Will TSMC provide a three-year CapEx outlook similar to 2021?
Wendell Huang said they do not have a number to share but reiterated that CapEx is invested for future growth opportunities. He stated that CapEx in the next three years will be 'even more significantly higher' than the past three years, reflecting strong conviction in the AI megatrend.
With rising competition in advanced packaging (e.g., Intel EMIB-T), is TSMC worried about cannibalization of its value add?
C.C. Wei said front-end and back-end are different businesses, and since TSMC's packaging capacity is in shortage, he welcomes additional flexibility in the market. He noted that if competitors help package customers' wafers, it would actually help TSMC's front-end wafer business.