ASML

ASML Holding

Summary

What they do:

Sole manufacturer of the EUV lithography machines that print transistor patterns onto every advanced chip at 7nm and below — sitting inside TSMC, Samsung, and Intel fabs, two steps upstream from the AI server.

Why they matter:

Without ASML's EUV systems, no company on earth can manufacture the GPUs, TPUs, or custom ASICs that power AI — there is no alternative supplier, making ASML the only true monopoly in the semiconductor supply chain.

Recent performance:

FY2025 revenue EUR 32.7B (+16% YoY), record Q4 with EUR 9.6B net income, EPS ~EUR 25. FY2026 guidance: EUR 34-39B revenue, 51-53% gross margins. Backlog EUR 38B+.

Our Verdict

Play TypeConsensus
Rel. ValueAttractive

The ultimate AI infrastructure tollbooth — 10/10 moat, sole EUV supplier, EUR 38B backlog providing multi-year visibility — but priced as the monopoly it is at a significant premium to L02 peers. Upside comes from High-NA EUV adoption and accelerating litho intensity per node; downside from cyclical capex ordering patterns and China export control headwinds.

Structural trends

AI compute scaling (more EUV layers per node)gate-all-around transistor transitionHBM capacity expansionHigh-NA EUV adoption cyclegeo-fragmented fab buildout

Structural

99

/ 100

Moat

10/10

Absolute monopoly

AI Exp.

Embedded

~35% AI

Play Type

Consensus

AI Growth

~25-30%

Rel. Value

53

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$1,518.30

+1.21%

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Market Cap

$596.2B

P/E Ratio

52.6

P/S Ratio

18.2x

52W High

$1,547.22

52W Low

$614.06

52W Chg

147.3%

Beta

1.38

The Catch

ASML's revenue is concentrated in three customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel), and if any two simultaneously slow their fab expansion plans — which happens when the semiconductor cycle turns — ASML's order book compresses faster than the backlog suggests, because customers can defer delivery without cancelling. Semi equipment is one of the most cyclical industries on earth (40-50% peak-to-trough revenue swings historically). The monopoly does not eliminate the cycle — it just means ASML is the last to feel it and the first to recover.

If They Win

If ASML successfully ramps High-NA EUV and maintains its monopoly through sub-1nm nodes, they become the tollbooth on every transistor manufactured on earth — a position so structurally entrenched that the only risk is geopolitical, not competitive. Revenue compounds to EUR 60B+ by 2030 with 56-60% gross margins. The installed base business alone exceeds EUR 15B. High-NA EUV at $400M+ per tool drives ASP expansion that makes the current EUV cycle look like the early innings.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.