KLA Corporation (KLAC) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
KLA makes process-control and process-enabling equipment and services that let chipmakers measure, inspect, and manage yield across wafers, masks, and packages. Its tools sit on the critical path of AI infrastructure expansion because leading-edge logic, HBM memory, and advanced packaging each require more inspection and metrology per wafer. The business spans semiconductor process control, specialty semiconductor process, and PCB/component inspection, anchored by an installed-base service stream.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $13.6B |
| Revenue Growth | +11.7% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 44.6% |
| Net Debt | $985M |
| Earnings Beats | 7 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Advanced packaging process control revenue is guided to roughly $1.1B in calendar 2026, up more than 70% year over year from about $635M in 2025.
- Semiconductor Process Control systems revenue is expected to grow over 20% in 2026 after total company growth was raised from mid-single digits to high teens.
- Management expects RPO/backlog of about $12.5B and lead times of about 12 months, with some products at 18–24 months.
- Services revenue reached $820M in the June quarter, up 17% year over year, and the long-term services CAGR model was raised to 13–15%.
- Management says process-control share has grown 360 basis points since 2021 and is roughly 6–7x the nearest competitor.
What We’re Watching
- Calendar 2026 gross margin is guided to about 62% ±50bps even with accelerating revenue; DRAM component costs are now expected to be a little more than 100 bps and continue through 2027.
- Tariffs remain a 50–100 bps gross margin drag, expected to diminish but still meaningful.
- The 2027 WFE growth outlook above 2026 is a forecast, with a consensus-type view around $190B rather than a booked reality.
- Customer concentration is high: TSMC and Samsung each exceeded 10% of revenue in fiscal 2023–2025, and the March quarter had two unnamed customers at 19% and 11%.
The thesis is strengthening. Revenue guidance was raised repeatedly across 2026, the June quarter came in above the midpoint, and management's framing has shifted to "critical path" and "unprecedented visibility." The open question is whether KLA can convert the expected ~$12.5B backlog into shipments as component supply comes online without letting DRAM and tariff cost drags erode margin leverage.
Earnings Beat
KLA reported record June-quarter revenue of $3.66B, up 7% sequentially and 15% year over year. Gross margin was 61.4% on a GAAP basis and 62.4% on a non-GAAP basis, at the upper end of guidance. Services revenue was $820M, up 17% year over year.
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $3.4B | $3.2B | +15.2% |
| Gross margin | 61.4% | 61.1% | 62.0% | -60bps |
| EBITDA | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.4B | +14.1% |
| EPS | $1.03 | $0.91 | $0.91 | +14.0% |
| Services revenue | $820M | $775M | n/a | +17% YoY |
We now expect our advanced packaging process control systems revenue to grow to approximately $1.1 billion in calendar 2026, up more than 70% year-over-year, above our prior expectation of high 50% growth and almost 2x faster than the advanced packaging market.— Rick Wallace, CEO, 2026-07-28
Management tone: Management's tone shifted from "strengthening" in January to "critical path" and "unprecedented visibility" by July. Executives gave unusually early forward commentary, including a 2027 WFE growth view; in April, management explicitly noted it would normally not comment on next-year WFE growth at that date.
Management Guidance
For the September quarter, management guided revenue of $4.0B ±$200M, non-GAAP gross margin of 62.5% ±1pp, operating expenses of about $690M, non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 ±$0.10, and GAAP EPS of $1.14 ±$0.10. For calendar 2026, management expects high-teens total revenue growth, Semiconductor Process Control systems growth over 20%, second-half revenue about 20% above the first half, gross margin of roughly 62% ±50bps, and advanced packaging process control revenue of approximately $1.1B.
Trajectory
Revenue has accelerated across the last four quarters: $3,210M, $3,297M, $3,415M, and $3,658M, with sequential growth stepping from 1.1% to 7.1%. Management attributes the second-half step-up to capacity coming online in long-lead-time supply chain areas and to the HBM memory mix rising to about 27% of Semiconductor Process Control systems revenue to semiconductor customers in the September guide. Reported gross margin held near 61% as DRAM component costs and tariffs offset some of the revenue leverage.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $17,000M and EBITDA of $7,803M, a 45.9% EBITDA margin. FY+2 revenue is projected at $19,700M with EBITDA of $9,259M, a 47.0% margin. The near-term anchor is the guided September quarter and the second-half 2026 step-up; FY+2 incorporates further expansion as 2027 WFE growth above 2026 and advanced packaging scale convert into revenue.
| Metric | FY2026 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.6B | $17.0B | $19.7B |
| YoY Growth | — | +25.2% | +15.9% |
| EBITDA | $6.1B | $7.8B | $9.3B |
| EBITDA Margin | 44.6% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 3.8% below analyst consensus.
For the September quarter, management guided revenue of $4.0B ±$200M, non-GAAP gross margin of 62.5% ±1pp, operating expenses of about $690M, non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 ±$0.10, and GAAP EPS of $1.14 ±$0.10. For calendar 2026, management expects high-teens total revenue growth, Semiconductor Process Control systems growth over 20%, second-half revenue about 20% above the first half, gross margin of roughly 62% ±50bps, and advanced packaging process control revenue of approximately $1.1B.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Advanced packaging process control revenue reaches or exceeds the 2026 target and keeps growing into 2027.
- 2027 WFE growth comes in above 2026, with the consensus-type view proving conservative.
- Services growth accelerates toward the high end of the 13–15% long-term CAGR as current shipments convert into installed base.
- Specialty Process and PCB/Component Inspection combined grows over 25% in 2026, confirming the Orbotech thesis.
- New product introductions reset pricing and cost structure, allowing gross margin to expand above the ~62% full-year guide.
- Supplier capacity fails to come online on the 12–24-month schedule, delaying backlog conversion.
- DRAM component costs keep worsening past the current more-than-100 bps level and continue through 2027.
- 2027 WFE commitments do not convert into orders; the ~$190B view is only a consensus estimate.
- Advanced packaging demand proves lumpy, slowing the advanced packaging revenue path.
- A strategic pause by TSMC or Samsung transmits directly, with two unnamed customers at 19% and 11% of March-quarter revenue.
Looking Ahead
Management's next twelve months hinge on executing the second-half 2026 ramp: the September revenue guide, gross margin of 62.5% ±1pp, and second-half revenue about 20% above the first half. Through calendar 2027, management plans for WFE growth above 2026, with customer delivery discussions already reaching the second half of 2027 and supplier capacity agreements signed out to 2029 and beyond.
- September 2026 quarterSeptember quarter results — Tests the September-quarter revenue guide and 62.5% ±1pp gross margin.
- Year-end 10-QBacklog confirmation — Tests expected RPO/backlog near $12.5B.
- December 2026 quarterSecond-half ramp delivery — Tests H2 revenue about 20% above first half.
- Calendar 2026Full-year segment disclosures — Tests advanced packaging process control and Specialty/PCB >25% growth.
- Calendar 20272027 WFE growth test — Tests growth above 2026; consensus-type view ~$190B.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $13.6B | $13.6B | +11.7% |
| Gross Margin | 60.9% | 61.3% | 61.3% | +42bps |
| EBITDA | $5.4B | $6.1B | $33.5B | +12.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 44.5% | 44.6% | 44.6% | +10bps |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $4.8B | $4.8B | +18.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.7B | $3.8B | $23.7B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)61.3%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)44.6%
- Net Margin (TTM)35.6%
- ROIC61.0%
- FCF Conversion62.2%
- SBC / Revenue2.3%
The Company
KLA Corporation makes process-control and process-enabling equipment and services used across the electronics supply chain. In plain terms, when a chipmaker builds a fab and needs to know whether each wafer, mask, and package is good, KLA supplies inspection, metrology, and software tools that answer those questions. Its 10-K describes it as a supplier of industry-leading equipment and services serving wafers, reticles/masks, chemicals and materials, ICs, packaged ICs, and PCBs.
KLA is organized into three reportable segments: Semiconductor Process Control, Specialty Semiconductor Process, and PCB and Component Inspection. It is headquartered in Milpitas, California, and as of June 30, 2025 owned or leased 7.1 million square feet of space worldwide, primarily in the U.S., Germany, U.K., Singapore, Israel, and India. The 10-K does not break that footprint into named manufacturing sites.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
KLA's 10-K names Applied Materials, ASML, Hitachi High-Technologies, Onto Innovation, and Lasertec among its competitors. Management claims process-control share has grown 360 basis points since 2021 and is roughly 6–7x the nearest competitor, though AMAT expects advanced-packaging revenue up >50% and Nova saw advanced packaging grow >60% in 2025.
- Applied MaterialsNamed competitor; ecosystem read-through shows AMAT expects semiconductor equipment growth >30% in CY2026 and advanced packaging revenue up >50%.
- ASMLNamed competitor; ecosystem read-through shows raised 2026 revenue guidance, but no direct KLA competitive statement supplied.
- Hitachi High-TechnologiesNamed in filings; not discussed in the supplied KLA materials.
- Onto InnovationNamed competitor; ecosystem read-through shows >30% 2026 revenue growth guide.
- LasertecNamed in filings; not discussed in the supplied KLA materials.
Supply Chain
KLA sits between long-lead-time component suppliers and the largest chipmakers. The 10-K discloses TSMC and Samsung as >10% customers; supplier names in the wiring layer are inferred rather than disclosed.
More on KLAC: Earnings recap