Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Ameresco is an energy infrastructure solutions company. It implements energy efficiency measures, upgrades aging infrastructure, and develops, constructs, and operates distributed energy resources on both sides of the meter. In the AI buildout, it provides behind-the-meter, on-site power plants for data centers — reciprocating engines, gas turbines, fuel cells, battery storage, and integrated microgrids — so operators can get reliable power faster than waiting on constrained grids. Its federal land access and long-dated O&M model are part of that role.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.0B |
| Revenue Growth | +8.6% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 11.9% |
| Net Debt | $1.9B |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Record Q2 new awards of $1.8 billion included $1.2 billion from data centers and $600 million from other markets.
- Awarded project backlog rose 65% to $4.4 billion and total project backlog rose 32% to $6.7 billion.
- Recurring revenue is compounding: O&M revenue grew 29% and energy asset revenue grew 21% in Q2, with long-term O&M backlog above $1.5 billion.
- The Neogenyx Fuels joint venture with HASI closed on May 12, 2026, bringing a $400 million commitment — $300 million into the JV and $100 million directly to Ameresco.
- Energy assets are the margin engine, with a 49.4% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 2026 versus 2.0% for projects.
What We’re Watching
- Data center award conversion risk: the $1.2 billion is in awarded, not contracted, backlog; no equipment orders have been placed.
- Most data center revenue impact is not expected until 2028–2030, with award-to-contract conversion of 6–24 months.
- Cash conversion slipped in Q2 because work was performed ahead of billing milestones; management calls H2 cash conversion a key priority.
- Corporate leverage was 3.2x against a 3.5x covenant, with total debt and financing lease liabilities of $2.04 billion at March 31, 2026.
The thesis is strengthening on demand signals: record awards, a 65% jump in awarded backlog, and a closed capital-efficient biofuels JV give multi-year visibility. The risk is that the largest new story is still not contracted. The open question is whether the awarded data center backlog converts to signed contracts and equipment orders within the stated 6–24 months.
Earnings Beat
Ameresco reported Q2 2026 revenue of $515 million, up 9% year over year, with gross margin of 17.7%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $62.8 million, and net income attributable to common shareholders was $9.7 million, or $0.18 per diluted share. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.20, within the $0.18–$0.23 guidance range. The standout was record new awards of $1.8 billion.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $402M | $581M | $353M | +13.8% |
| Gross margin | 14.1% | 16.2% | 14.7% | -60bps |
| EBITDA | $39M | $74M | $37M | +5.3% |
| EPS | $-0.35 | $0.34 | $-0.10 | +230.2% |
| Awarded project backlog | $4.4B | $2.8B | n/a | +65% YoY |
Q2 was a transformational quarter for Ameresco, highlighted by exceptional execution and strong financial performance. First, we had a record of $1.8 billion of new awards driven by $1.2 billion for data centers and $600 million for our other key markets.— George Sakellaris, Chairman and CEO, 2026-08-03
Management tone: Management's tone shifted from candid and structurally active in Q1 to more promotional but still execution-focused in Q2, with repeated use of the word 'transformational.' Management tempered the data center story with the 6–24 month award-to-contract timeline and the 2028–2030 revenue timing, and declined to discuss project-specific risk-sharing or liquidated damages.
Management Guidance
For FY2026, management reaffirmed revenue of $2.0–2.2 billion, gross margin of 17%–18%, capex of $300–350 million, and 100–120 MW of energy assets placed in service. On adjusted EBITDA, the prior guidance of approximately $283 million was reaffirmed subject to 30% Neogenyx NCI. Non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $1.15–$1.35, driven by an expected tax benefit rate of 25%–40% from a planned transferable tax credit accounting change in the second half of 2026.
Trajectory
Revenue is growing but the mix is shifting toward higher-margin recurring streams. Q1 2026 revenue was $401.5 million, with gross margin of 14.1% pressured by weather and project mix; Q2 2026 revenue recovered to $515 million with 17.7% gross margin. Energy asset revenue grew 21% and O&M revenue grew 29% in Q2, faster than project revenue's 6%, which should support margin if asset production is not disrupted.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $2,150 million with EBITDA of $273 million (12.7% margin), and FY+2 revenue of $2,450 million with EBITDA of $343 million (14.0% margin). The near-term is anchored by management's FY2026 revenue range of $2.0–2.2 billion and record project backlog; the FY+2 step reflects continued conversion of higher-margin energy asset and O&M revenue.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.5B |
| YoY Growth | — | +11.3% | +14.0% |
| EBITDA | $233M | $273M | $343M |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.0% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 4.5% above analyst consensus.
For FY2026, management reaffirmed revenue of $2.0–2.2 billion, gross margin of 17%–18%, capex of $300–350 million, and 100–120 MW of energy assets placed in service. On adjusted EBITDA, the prior guidance of approximately $283 million was reaffirmed subject to 30% Neogenyx NCI. Non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $1.15–$1.35, driven by an expected tax benefit rate of 25%–40% from a planned transferable tax credit accounting change in the second half of 2026.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Awarded data center projects convert to contracted backlog within the 6–24 month window and equipment orders are placed.
- The current data center award package scales toward the $2 billion management said would not be a surprise, with 'at least that many more' opportunities beyond the five awarded projects.
- A Neogenyx-like capital vehicle for data centers, currently only being explored, is ultimately announced and reduces the parent's capital burden.
- RNG build rate roughly doubles from about 2 plants per year to about 4 plants per year, with new production late 2028 and beyond.
- Energy asset placements reach the 100–120 MW FY2026 target, with 32 MW already placed in Q2 and two RNG plants commissioned.
- The $1.2 billion of data center awards fails to convert or slips beyond the 6–24 month window, with no equipment orders placed.
- Equipment pricing or lead times inflate before orders are placed, compressing the high-teens EPC margin management expects.
- Government concentration risk: about 61% of FY2025 revenue came from government entities, and the top 20 customers accounted for about 57.2%.
- Cash conversion does not recover in H2, leaving corporate leverage at 3.2x against a 3.5x covenant and interest expense guided to $95–100 million.
- Severe weather at RNG and solar sites could disrupt energy asset production, as it did in Q1 2026.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months are defined by whether awarded data center work becomes contracted and execution-bound. Management's timeline is 6–24 months for award-to-contract, then 1–3 years to implementation, with major data center revenue still expected in 2028–2030. Meanwhile, H2 2026 brings the transferable tax credit accounting change and the 100–120 MW asset placement target, and Neogenyx deployment is expected to continue with HASI's committed capital.
- 2H 2026Transferable tax credit accounting change — Planned transition with prior-period recast; 25–40% tax benefit rate.
- FY 2026Energy asset placements — 100–120 MW placed in service, including two RNG plants; 32 MW completed in Q2.
- 2H 2026Cash conversion recovery — Management calls H2 cash conversion a key priority after Q2 billing timing hit.
- 6–24 months from awardData center award conversion — Five awarded projects plus Lemoore move to contracted backlog; equipment orders first.
- No fixed dateAdditional data center awards — Current package could reach $2B; at least that many more opportunities.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | +9.2% |
| Gross Margin | 14.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | +97bps |
| EBITDA | $198M | $233M | $1.3B | +17.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.9% | +87bps |
| Net Income | $57M | $44M | $32M | -22.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$321M | −$332M | −$3.5B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)15.6%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)11.9%
- Net Margin (TTM)1.6%
- ROIC3.2%
- FCF Conversion-106.9%
- SBC / Revenue0.2%
The Company
Ameresco implements smart energy efficiency solutions, upgrades aging infrastructure, and develops, constructs, and operates distributed energy resources. It works on both sides of the meter to reduce operating expenses, upgrade facilities, stabilize energy costs, improve reliability, and decarbonize. Its offering spans demand-side efficiency, generation and energy supply such as solar and RNG, and integrated infrastructure including battery storage and microgrids.
It operates as an integrated project developer, EPC provider, energy-asset owner, and long-term O&M provider. The 10-K reports five segments — North America Regions, U.S. Federal, Renewable Fuels, Europe, and All Other. At FY2025 year-end, Ameresco owned and operated 227 small-scale renewable energy plants with about 838 MWe operating and about 853 MWe in development or construction; the company is now organized into Power Infrastructure and Building & Public Infrastructure pillars.
Business Segments
Supply Chain
Ameresco sits between component and equipment suppliers upstream and data center operators, utilities, governments, and O&M customers downstream. Its integration spans EPC execution, energy-asset ownership, and long-term service.
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