JCI

Johnson Controls

Q2 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-01$1.13 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Builds the HVAC, chiller, and building automation systems that control the thermal and environmental infrastructure of commercial buildings and data centers worldwide — York chillers, Metasys controls, and the OpenBlue digital platform.

Why they matter:

Every hyperscale data center needs facility-level cooling before a single GPU powers on. Johnson Controls' York centrifugal chillers are specified in a significant share of hyperscale designs, and their $18.2B record backlog — driven by data center and life sciences projects — shows accelerating demand. But JCI is a diversified building systems company, not a pure-play cooling vendor.

Recent performance:

Q1 FY2026 (Dec 2025) revenue $5.8B, up 7% YoY. Adjusted EPS $0.89, up ~40% YoY. Orders up ~40% with Americas surging 56%. Backlog hit record $18.2B. FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to ~$4.70, representing ~25% growth.

Our Verdict

Play TypeConsensus
Rel. ValueAttractive

Johnson Controls is the broad-based building infrastructure company that benefits from data center cooling demand but remains a diversified industrial with ~60% commercial HVAC and ~40% fire/security revenue — the data center tailwind is real but the stock at 26x P/E already reflects steady-state execution.

Structural trends

AI compute power density driving facility-level cooling upgradeshyperscaler greenfield campus constructionrefrigerant regulation transitions favoring scale incumbentsportfolio simplification (Bosch HVAC salepotential security divestiture) refocusing on commercial and data center markets

Structural

63

/ 100

Moat

5/10

York brand + vertical integration + scale, but competitive HVAC oligopoly with multiple credible alternatives

AI Exp.

Embedded

~20% AI

Play Type

Consensus

AI Growth

~20-25%

Rel. Value

54

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$142.05

-0.54%

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Market Cap

$86.9B

P/E Ratio

47.8

P/S Ratio

3.6x

52W High

$146.49

52W Low

$73.55

52W Chg

93.1%

Beta

1.40

Supply Chain Dependencies

The Catch

Johnson Controls is a diversified building systems company where data center cooling is a growing but non-dominant revenue driver — the company does not break out data center revenue as a separate segment, so the actual magnitude of AI-driven growth is partially opaque. The fire and security business still represents ~40% of revenue and grows below the company average, diluting the data center growth narrative. The HVAC/chiller market is a competitive oligopoly — Carrier, Trane, and Daikin all make comparable products, and hyperscaler procurement teams negotiate hard on pricing. At 26x P/E with the stock near its 52-week high, the market has already priced in a quality industrial with moderate data center exposure. If the security divestiture stalls or hyperscaler capex decelerates, there is limited upside catalyst and 15-20% downside from multiple compression.

If They Win

If Johnson Controls successfully divests the security business, closes the Alloy Enterprises acquisition, and accelerates OpenBlue platform adoption in data centers, the company emerges as a focused $15-16B commercial HVAC and building automation company with improving margins, sticky recurring software revenue, and front-row exposure to the multi-decade data center buildout cycle. At that point, the market re-rates JCI from "diversified industrial" to "building infrastructure platform for AI-era facilities" — a shift that could push the multiple from 26x to 30x+ on growing EPS, taking the stock to $200+ by 2028. The OpenBlue platform, if it achieves broad adoption, transforms JCI from an equipment vendor into a data-driven building management company with 60%+ margin software revenue layered on top of the installed hardware base.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.