MOD

Modine Manufacturing

Q4 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-18$1.57 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Designs and manufactures thermal management systems for data centers — precision air handling units, chillers, and coolant distribution units (CDUs) — primarily through its Airedale by Modine brand, alongside a legacy vehicle and industrial cooling business.

Why they matter:

As AI GPU rack density pushes past 50 kW per cabinet, cooling is the binding constraint on compute density. Modine's data center sales grew 78% YoY in Q3 FY2026, making it one of the fastest-growing cooling suppliers in the AI infrastructure buildout. The company is targeting $2B+ in data center revenue by FY2028.

Recent performance:

Q3 FY2026 (Dec 2025) revenue $805M, up 31% YoY. Adjusted EPS $1.19 (+29% YoY). Data center sales +78%. GAAP net loss of $46.8M due to $116M non-cash pension charge. Raised FY2026 guidance: sales growth 20-25%, adjusted EBITDA $455-475M.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEmerging
Rel. ValueFair

Mid-transformation from legacy industrial thermal to data center cooling specialist — 78% DC revenue growth and $2B FY2028 target are compelling, but at 34x forward P/E with competition from Vertiv, Schneider, and CoolIT, the stock prices in significant execution success.

Structural trends

AI GPU power density escalation (liquid cooling mandatory above 50 kW/rack)hyperscaler data center buildout accelerationair-to-liquid cooling transition wave$100M+ capacity expansion cycle

Structural

73

/ 100

Moat

7/10

DC cooling growth

AI Exp.

High

~43% AI

Play Type

Emerging

AI Growth

78%

Rel. Value

32

FAIR

PriceLIVE

$253.66

-1.30%

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Market Cap

$13.4B

P/E Ratio

138.6

P/S Ratio

4.7x

52W High

$260.01

52W Low

$67.80

52W Chg

274.1%

Beta

1.68

Supply Chain Dependencies

The Catch

Modine's biggest risk is that it is a mid-transformation company trading at a growth premium. The 34x forward P/E assumes the data center cooling business continues growing 50%+ and eventually dominates the revenue mix — but the legacy Performance Technologies segment (~40% of revenue) is declining, creating a tug-of-war in the P&L. If data center growth decelerates to 20-30% (still respectable but below the 78% current pace), the blended growth rate drops to mid-teens, and a 34x multiple becomes hard to defend for an industrial company. Meanwhile, the competitive field is deep: Vertiv is larger and more integrated, Schneider has broader distribution, CoolIT leads in direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and Carrier/Trane compete in the chiller segment. Modine is a top-5 player — not the dominant leader. The $100M capacity expansion is necessary to hit the $2B target, but it also creates fixed cost risk if demand slows. The non-cash pension charge in Q3 is a one-time item, but it highlights that Modine still carries legacy liabilities from its century-old industrial heritage.

If They Win

If Modine successfully completes the transformation from legacy industrial thermal company to data center cooling specialist — reaching $2B+ in data center revenue by FY2028, expanding margins as the higher-margin data center mix dominates, and either divesting or stabilizing the legacy business — the company becomes one of the essential cooling suppliers in the AI infrastructure ecosystem. Airedale by Modine would be a brand specified into hyperscaler facility blueprints worldwide, collecting revenue from every building that runs a GPU cluster. The stock would re-rate from an "industrial in transition" multiple (34x) to a pure-play infrastructure growth multiple (40-45x), with a path to $400+ based on $10+ EPS by FY2028. More importantly, the installed base would generate recurring service and maintenance revenue for decades — each CDU, chiller, and air handler requires ongoing support, creating annuity-like cash flows.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.