CDNS

Cadence Design Systems

Q1 FY2026 earnings · 2026-04-27$1.95 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Build the software that every chip designer on earth uses to turn a transistor-level idea into a manufacturable blueprint — no chip reaches TSMC, Samsung, or Intel Foundry without passing through Cadence or Synopsys tools first.

Why they matter:

One half of the EDA duopoly that controls the very first step of the AI chip supply chain. Cadence dominates analog/mixed-signal design (Virtuoso), custom IC layout, and verification. Every NVIDIA GPU, every Google TPU, every hyperscaler custom ASIC was designed using Cadence and/or Synopsys tools. The duopoly has held for 20+ years with near-100% customer retention.

Recent performance:

FY2025 revenue $5.30B, up 14% YoY. Q4 2025 revenue $1.44B, beat by 6%. Non-GAAP EPS $1.99 in Q4, beat by 6%. Record backlog of $7.8B. FY2026 guided to $5.9-6.0B revenue with 45% non-GAAP operating margins. Stock ~$310 with ~$85B market cap.

Our Verdict

Play TypeConsensus
Rel. ValueAttractive

Consensus-quality EDA duopoly with the strongest moat in semiconductor infrastructure — every AI chip is designed on Cadence tools, but premium valuation fully prices the quality with limited upside skew.

Structural trends

AI chip design proliferationhyperscaler custom silicon programs (COT model)chiplet architecture adoption (more design starts per product)AI-enhanced EDA tools creating a data flywheel2nm and sub-2nm process node transitions

Structural

77

/ 100

Moat

10/10

EDA duopoly — strongest moat in tech

AI Exp.

Embedded

~28% AI

Play Type

Consensus

AI Growth

15-20%

Rel. Value

58

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$292.37

+1.45%

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Market Cap

$80.7B

P/E Ratio

72.0

P/S Ratio

15.2x

52W High

$376.45

52W Low

$247.70

52W Chg

18.0%

Beta

1.04

The Catch

Cadence is the highest-quality business model in the AI chip supply chain — and the stock price fully reflects it. At 35x forward earnings and ~16x trailing revenue, there is essentially no margin of error. The growth deceleration from 14% to 11-13% is modest but real, and at this valuation, a single quarter of below-guide results could trigger a 10-15% correction. China exposure (~15% of revenue) is an ongoing geopolitical risk that management cannot control. And while the AI disruption risk is distant (5-10 years), the possibility that foundation models eventually learn to assist with chip design independent of vendor-specific tools is the only structural threat to the duopoly moat — though even in that scenario, Cadence and Synopsys would likely be the ones building those AI models on top of their existing tools and data.

If They Win

If ChipStack AI becomes the de facto standard for next-generation chip design, if every hyperscaler custom silicon program runs through Cadence tools, if the system design suite (Clarity, Celsius) opens a new multi-billion-dollar TAM in computational software, and if the AI-enhanced tool tier drives 20%+ ASP uplift across the customer base — Cadence becomes the tax on every transistor ever designed, with recurring revenue approaching $8-10B by 2028, operating margins above 47%, and a compounding machine that no competitor can replicate. The duopoly doesn't just hold — it widens, because the AI models trained on decades of Cadence design data produce measurably better chips, creating a flywheel where better tools attract more designers, which generates more data, which makes the AI better. In this scenario, Cadence is a $150B+ company.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.