Calumet Inc. (CLMT) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Calumet is a downstream specialty products, branded products, and renewable fuels company. It makes solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, branded products under Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel, and renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and renewable naphtha. The supplied calls and filings contain no AI, data center, semiconductor, or AI-infrastructure demand language, so its role in the AI buildout is not disclosed.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.2B |
| Revenue Growth | −0.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 3.4% |
| Net Debt | $2.4B |
| Earnings Beats | 3 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Specialty Products & Solutions delivered $161.7 million adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, more than double the prior-year quarter, on record specialty production.
- Management describes a structural base-oil shortage: over 10% of global paraffinic base oil capacity is offline, one-third of Middle Eastern capacity is fully or partially offline, and Europe has lost about one-third of Group I production.
- Q2 cash from operations exceeded $90 million while working capital built by $70 million; July debt retirement was $115 million and restricted group leverage was below 4x, expected below 3x next quarter.
- MaxSAF 150 Phase 1 is operational and performance-tested; management targets SAF run-rates of 80–100 million gallons by year-end 2026 and 120–150 million by spring 2027.
- More than 20 specialty price increases enacted in Q1 reached full realization in Q2; Q1 SPS volume rose 9.3% year over year.
What We’re Watching
- Full MaxSAF Phase 2 scope, cost, funding, and DOE documentation remain undisclosed; management says details will come before the next earnings call.
- Q4 2026 Shreveport turnaround follows the Q1 organic chlorides event that lost about 750,000 barrels and more than $30 million of opportunity.
- Four suppliers accounted for 98.8% of Q1 2026 crude oil supply, up from 88.8% a year earlier.
- Performance Brands Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell about $6.2 million year over year on a $7 million LIFO/input-cost timing hit; pricing lag is 60–90 days.
The thesis is strengthening: Q2 demonstrated adjusted earnings power despite turnarounds, management raised and made more specific SAF and leverage guideposts, and deleveraging has started. The open question is whether full MaxSAF Phase 2 economics and the 2027–2028 SAF ramp can be executed as described.
Earnings
Q2 2026 revenue and gross margin are not disclosed in the supplied source set. Reported net loss was $(95.9) million, or $(1.09) per basic share, driven by non-cash RINs and other mark-to-market items. Adjusted EBITDA was $159.3 million, or $175.2 million with tax attributes, up from $76.5 million a year earlier.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.0B | $994M | +3.6% |
| Gross margin | -8.5% | -0.3% | -8.2% | -30bps |
| EBITDA | −$130M | −$19M | −$2M | +6395.0% |
| EPS | $-3.64 | $-0.43 | $-1.87 | +94.3% |
| Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes | $175.2M | $50.1M | $76.5M | +129.0% |
Historically, our industry produces a little over 700,000 barrels per day of paraffinic base oil globally. And at the highest level, it’s been well balanced with demand. Today, over 10% of that capacity is off-line, leaving the market structurally imbalanced.— Todd Borgmann, Chief Executive Officer, 2026-08-07
Management tone: Management’s tone shifted from confident but measured on the Q1 2026 call to more strategic and emphatic on Q2 2026. The Q2 framing presented the quarter as a clean demonstration of earnings power despite turnarounds and moved the story from 'deleveraging first' to 'deleveraging plus growth.'
Management Guidance
No consolidated full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was issued. Management guideposts include a 2026 2:1:1 crack spread above $42 per barrel, SAF run-rate of 80–100 million gallons per year by year-end 2026, capex of $130 million to $160 million, specialty growth capital of about $50 million mostly deployed in 2027 and 2028, Montana asphalt normal-environment annual EBITDA of $30–50 million, and restricted group leverage below 3x next quarter.
Trajectory
The audited spine shows trailing revenue of $4,172.9 million and TTM EBITDA of $140.1 million, with GAAP gross and EBITDA margins compressing. Q1 2026 sales were $1,029.7 million, up 3.6% year over year, while the trailing four-quarter average revenue growth was +0.4%. In contrast, Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was $175.2 million, up from $76.5 million a year earlier, driven by record SPS production and full realization of more than 20 price increases.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $4,640 million and EBITDA of $408 million (8.8% margin). FY+2 revenue is $4,810 million with EBITDA of $500 million (10.4% margin). The near term is anchored by specialty margin strength and MaxSAF Phase 1 now operating; FY+2 reflects the specialty growth portfolio and continued SAF ramp toward higher volumes.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $4.6B | $4.8B |
| YoY Growth | — | +12.2% | +3.7% |
| EBITDA | $268M | $408M | $500M |
| EBITDA Margin | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.4% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 0.0% above analyst consensus.
No consolidated full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was issued. Management guideposts include a 2026 2:1:1 crack spread above $42 per barrel, SAF run-rate of 80–100 million gallons per year by year-end 2026, capex of $130 million to $160 million, specialty growth capital of about $50 million mostly deployed in 2027 and 2028, Montana asphalt normal-environment annual EBITDA of $30–50 million, and restricted group leverage below 3x next quarter.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Structural base-oil tightness persists: over 10% of global paraffinic base oil capacity is offline, with one-third of Middle Eastern capacity full or partially offline and Europe down about one-third of Group I production.
- MaxSAF Phase 2 executes as the cheaper, faster, lower-risk CMR reconfiguration; SAF reaches 80–100 million gallons by year-end 2026, 120–150 million by spring 2027, and up to 200 million by 2028.
- CMR earns the over $50 million of EBITDA management expects before the winter reconfiguration, and Q3 has no turnaround.
- The roughly $50 million specialty growth pipeline clears FEL, with two-thirds of capital deployed in 2027 and EBITDA mostly 2028.
- Renewable diesel index margins stay around $2.60 per gallon and rising, and 2026 2:1:1 crack spreads remain above $42 per barrel.
- Base-oil supply normalizes faster than expected if Middle Eastern or European capacity returns, compressing SPS margins.
- MaxSAF Phase 2 slips on technical, DOE, or funding issues, delaying the winter reactor swap and 2027 SAF ramp.
- Renewable margin policy weakens or renewable diesel index margins fall from the roughly $2.60 per gallon level, undercutting MRL earnings.
- Another Shreveport-style operational event or Q4 turnaround disruption reduces specialty output.
- Crude supplier concentration at 98.8% leaves feedstock security vulnerable if a key supplier is lost.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months hinge on disclosure and execution: Phase 2 details and DOE documentation are due before the next earnings call, Q3 is the first full-quarter MRL test with no turnaround, and Q4 brings the Shreveport turnaround. The winter 2026/2027 CMR reactor swap and the SAF ramp to year-end and spring 2027 milestones then test the growth plan.
- Before next earnings callMaxSAF Phase 2 disclosure — Cost, funding, and site-reconfiguration details, plus DOE document completion.
- Q3 2026Full MRL quarter — First clean test with no turnaround; expected meaningfully higher than Q2.
- Q4 2026Shreveport turnaround — Operational test after Q1 organic chlorides event.
- Early winter 2026/2027CMR reactor swap — About two weeks fossil-side downtime; MRL ramp continuation.
- Year-end 2026SAF run-rate milestone — 80–100 million gallons per year target.
- Spring 2027SAF run-rate milestone — 120–150 million gallons per year target.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.2B | -1.2% |
| Gross Margin | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 15bps |
| EBITDA | $186M | $268M | $1.9B | +44.4% |
| EBITDA Margin | 4.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | +205bps |
| Net Income | −$220M | −$34M | −$189M | +84.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$123M | $57M | −$943M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)5.8%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)3.4%
- Net Margin (TTM)-4.5%
- ROIC-0.8%
- FCF Conversion61.0%
- SBC / Revenue-0.1%
The Company
Calumet manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels. Specialty Products and Solutions covers solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and related products; Performance Brands sells Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel. Montana/Renewables produces renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable naphtha, and conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty asphalt. Management attributes specialty strength to the integrated model.
Operations span owned sites in Louisiana, Montana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Illinois. Shreveport has 60,000 bpd aggregate crude throughput capacity; Montana Renewables has 15,000 bpd permitted renewable throughput; other sites produce base oils, solvents, waxes, and synthetic lubricants.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The supplied source set does not identify competitors; the provided FY2025 10-K excerpts cover segments, product mix, facilities, and supply relationships rather than a named competitor list.
Supply Chain
Calumet sits downstream: it buys crude and renewable feedstocks, processes them into specialty products, fuels, and renewable fuels. Neighbor transcripts show electrification/data-center demand at ABB and Eaton, but CLMT has not linked its specialty fluids to that theme.
More on CLMT: Earnings recap