GEV

GE Vernova

Q1 FY2026 earnings · 2026-04-22$1.89 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Designs and manufactures large power generation equipment — gas turbines, wind turbines, grid equipment, and battery storage — sitting between fuel suppliers and grid operators as the OEM that builds the machines powering data centers and the broader grid.

Why they matter:

AI data centers need 100-500 MW of dispatchable power per facility with 4-5 year lead times, and GE Vernova is the fastest path to new on-demand generation in a duopoly with Siemens Energy where both players are near full capacity.

Recent performance:

FY2025 revenue $38B (+9% YoY), EBITDA margin expanded 210bp, free cash flow $3.7B. Q4 EPS $2.78 missed estimates by 7%. Backlog grew 25% to $150B. Q1 2026 earnings due April 22.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEstablished
Rel. ValueFair

Proven power equipment duopoly with Siemens Energy and a $150B backlog stretching to 2030, but at ~60x earnings the stock prices in a decade of flawless execution — data center Electrification orders tripled in 2025 and gas turbine slots carry 10-20 points of pricing strength, yet Wind losses and long-cycle conversion risk cap near-term upside.

Structural trends

AI data center power demand accelerationgrid modernizationgas-to-renewables transitionsupply chain scarcity in heavy turbine manufacturing

Structural

80

/ 100

Moat

8/10

Generation leader

AI Exp.

Embedded

~17% AI

Play Type

Established

AI Growth

~30-50%

Rel. Value

40

FAIR

PriceLIVE

$987.50

-0.37%

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Market Cap

$266.2B

P/E Ratio

55.9

P/S Ratio

7.0x

52W High

$1,007.38

52W Low

$306.21

52W Chg

222.5%

Beta

1.20

The Catch

GE Vernova trades at 60x earnings on a $150B backlog that will take 8-10 years to fully convert, meaning the current valuation assumes zero customer cancellations, zero margin compression, and sustained data center power demand growth. The company is also capital-intensive — expanding manufacturing capacity to serve growing demand requires multi-billion-dollar capex that could dilute shareholder returns. If data center spending growth slows even modestly (models plateau, capex cycles normalize), backlog can be canceled or deferred, turning a growth story into a reversion to utility-like 5-7% earnings growth. The stock is essentially betting that the AI boom continues at an uninterrupted pace for a decade, which is a very expensive bet.

If They Win

GE Vernova becomes the power equipment company of the AI era — the GE spinoff that supplies both the turbines that generate electricity when data centers need dispatchable power right now and the grid equipment that delivers it. In this scenario, the $150B backlog grows to $250B+ as every hyperscaler locks in turbine capacity years in advance, service contracts compound recurring revenue at 60-70% margins, and the duopoly with Siemens hardens as no new entrant can replicate the materials science, supply chain depth, and regulatory relationships built over decades. GE Vernova becomes the critical infrastructure bottleneck of the AI buildout — invisible but indispensable.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.