GEV
GE Vernova
Summary
What they do:
Designs and manufactures large power generation equipment — gas turbines, wind turbines, grid equipment, and battery storage — sitting between fuel suppliers and grid operators as the OEM that builds the machines powering data centers and the broader grid.
Why they matter:
AI data centers need 100-500 MW of dispatchable power per facility with 4-5 year lead times, and GE Vernova is the fastest path to new on-demand generation in a duopoly with Siemens Energy where both players are near full capacity.
Recent performance:
FY2025 revenue $38B (+9% YoY), EBITDA margin expanded 210bp, free cash flow $3.7B. Q4 EPS $2.78 missed estimates by 7%. Backlog grew 25% to $150B. Q1 2026 earnings due April 22.
Our Verdict
Proven power equipment duopoly with Siemens Energy and a $150B backlog stretching to 2030, but at ~60x earnings the stock prices in a decade of flawless execution — data center Electrification orders tripled in 2025 and gas turbine slots carry 10-20 points of pricing strength, yet Wind losses and long-cycle conversion risk cap near-term upside.
Structural trends
Structural
80
/ 100
Moat
8/10
Generation leader
AI Exp.AI Exposure
Embedded~17% AI
Play Type
EstablishedAI Growth
~30-50%
Rel. Value
40
FAIRPriceLIVE
$987.50
-0.37%
Live via Yahoo Finance · refreshes every 5 min
Market Cap
$266.2B
P/E Ratio
55.9
P/S Ratio
7.0x
52W High
$1,007.38
52W Low
$306.21
52W Chg
222.5%
Beta
1.20
GE Vernova is a capital equipment manufacturer. Its products are enormous machines that sit in very specific physical locations. A large gas turbine (like the 9HA.02) is 150+ feet tall, weighs 1,000+ tons, and converts natural gas into electricity with 63%+ efficiency. Each unit generates 450-600 MW — enough to power 400,000 homes. A data center needing 500 MW would use one unit of this size. GE Vernova builds these in factories in Greenville (South Carolina), Berlin (Germany), and Tokyo (Japan).
Once built, the turbine is transported by truck, rail, or barge to a power plant site near natural gas pipelines and transmission lines. Build time on-site: 18-36 months, then commissioning, testing, and grid integration. The newer equipment trend is smaller and modular — mid-size turbines (150-300 MW) can be installed in 12-18 months and sited closer to demand, near data centers. This is the future: smaller units, faster deployment, closer to load.
Transformers, switchgear, and resilience equipment are manufactured at various GE Vernova sites and shipped to power plants and substations globally. A single transformer is 10+ feet tall, costs $1-10M, and is customized for each site. The grid equipment business is becoming increasingly critical as electrification and data center load stress existing infrastructure.
A single GE Vernova gas turbine is the size of a large building. The fuel consumption is enormous — 300+ gallons of natural gas per minute. This is industrial infrastructure that's completely invisible to most people but absolutely critical to civilization. Spun out of GE in 2024 with a clean balance sheet, GE Vernova is now a standalone pure-play on power infrastructure. FY2025 revenue was $38B with $59B in orders (book-to-bill ~1.6x). The company closed the Prolec GE transformer acquisition in February 2026, adding $3B of annual revenue and five factories to its Electrification segment. 2026 guidance calls for $44-45B in revenue with EBITDA margins of 11-13%, and management projects at least $56B in revenue by 2028 at 20% EBITDA margins.
Supply Chain Dependencies
The Catch
GE Vernova trades at 60x earnings on a $150B backlog that will take 8-10 years to fully convert, meaning the current valuation assumes zero customer cancellations, zero margin compression, and sustained data center power demand growth. The company is also capital-intensive — expanding manufacturing capacity to serve growing demand requires multi-billion-dollar capex that could dilute shareholder returns. If data center spending growth slows even modestly (models plateau, capex cycles normalize), backlog can be canceled or deferred, turning a growth story into a reversion to utility-like 5-7% earnings growth. The stock is essentially betting that the AI boom continues at an uninterrupted pace for a decade, which is a very expensive bet.
If They Win
GE Vernova becomes the power equipment company of the AI era — the GE spinoff that supplies both the turbines that generate electricity when data centers need dispatchable power right now and the grid equipment that delivers it. In this scenario, the $150B backlog grows to $250B+ as every hyperscaler locks in turbine capacity years in advance, service contracts compound recurring revenue at 60-70% margins, and the duopoly with Siemens hardens as no new entrant can replicate the materials science, supply chain depth, and regulatory relationships built over decades. GE Vernova becomes the critical infrastructure bottleneck of the AI buildout — invisible but indispensable.
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Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.