GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure

The Verdict

GE Vernova makes the equipment that generates and moves electricity. It builds gas and steam turbines, onshore and offshore wind turbines, and the grid hardware — transformers, switchgear, high-voltage transmission, substations — that carries power to where it is used. For the AI buildout, that makes it a supplier rather than an AI company: data centers need enormous amounts of electricity, and GE Vernova sells the turbines and electrical equipment that deliver it. Its AI-linked demand sits mainly in gas turbines inside Power and in data-center electrical gear inside Electrification. Wind carries no AI exposure, and the small-modular-reactor work is a longer-dated option the calls do not tie directly to data centers.

Earnings Beat

GE Vernova reported $11,104M of revenue in the June 2026 quarter at a 21.3% gross margin, up from 20.3% a year earlier, with organic revenue up 12% year over year. EBITDA was $1,072M (9.7%), versus $583M a year earlier. Free cash flow was $5,106M in the quarter and about $10B year to date, helped by customer down payments on orders and slot reservations.

Management tone: On the July 2026 call management raised the full-year free-cash-flow guide for the second consecutive quarter, lifted its year-end gas-contracting target to at least 125 GW from at least 110 GW, and added a new 30 GW annual gas-output target for 2030. It reaffirmed the $200B backlog goal for 2027 and framed the industry as early in a multi-decade growth cycle. It did not update the framework-agreement talks, the up-to-$40B U.S./Japan SMR funding, the NRC timing for Clinch River, or the 2026 tariff estimate.

Management Guidance

For full-year 2026 management guides revenue of $45.5B–$46.5B, raised by $1B; an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12%–14%, maintained; and free cash flow of $11.5B–$12.5B, raised from $6.5B–$7.5B. Segment guidance: Power organic revenue growth of 18%–20% and a 17%–19% EBITDA margin; Electrification revenue of $14.5B–$15B and an 18%–20% EBITDA margin; Wind revenue down low double digits with EBITDA losses around $400M. Corporate costs are guided at $450M–$500M, and combined R&D plus capital spending is set to rise about 30% year over year. Management says first-half free cash flow will be substantially higher than the second half as slot reservations convert to orders.

Trajectory

Revenue is accelerating. The June 2026 quarter brought $11,104M, up 18.9% sequentially and above the $9,111M reported a year earlier, after a seasonally softer $9,339M in the March quarter. Margins are expanding: June-quarter gross margin was 21.3% versus 20.3% a year earlier, and EBITDA rose to $1,072M from $583M. The drivers are gas turbine volume and higher pricing in Power and broad grid-equipment demand including Prolec's transformers in Electrification, with Wind a $275M EBITDA loss in the quarter. Free cash flow was $5,106M, helped by a $6.4B working-capital benefit from customer down payments on orders and slot reservations.

The Model

The model projects FY+1 revenue of $46,200M and EBITDA of $6,098M (13.2% margin), rising to FY+2 revenue of $52,500M and EBITDA of $8,662M (16.5% margin). The near term is anchored by the gas shipment step from about 3 GW to 5 GW per quarter beginning in the third quarter of 2026 and by Electrification growth that includes Prolec's roughly $3.0B of expected 2026 revenue. Further out, the projections assume the capacity ladder expands toward 24 GW annualized in 2028 and 30 GW of annual output in 2030, along with growing data-center electrical content.

Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 3.8% above analyst consensus.

For full-year 2026 management guides revenue of $45.5B–$46.5B, raised by $1B; an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12%–14%, maintained; and free cash flow of $11.5B–$12.5B, raised from $6.5B–$7.5B. Segment guidance: Power organic revenue growth of 18%–20% and a 17%–19% EBITDA margin; Electrification revenue of $14.5B–$15B and an 18%–20% EBITDA margin; Wind revenue down low double digits with EBITDA losses around $400M. Corporate costs are guided at $450M–$500M, and combined R&D plus capital spending is set to rise about 30% year over year. Management says first-half free cash flow will be substantially higher than the second half as slot reservations convert to orders.

What Could Go Right — and Wrong

Looking Ahead

The next twelve months turn on execution. Management expects the second half of 2026 to bring the SRA-to-order inflection and, by year-end, at least 125 GW under contract plus more than half of its 30 GW of 2031 production slots sold. Gas shipment cadence steps up from about 3 GW to 5 GW per quarter beginning in the third quarter. On the data-center side, the first 5 MW solid-state transformer prototype is due to a hyperscaler later in 2026 and MV-UPS orders may come in the second half, with SST orders put at 2027 at the earliest. Beyond that, Dogger Bank B and C run through the better part of 2027, and nuclear milestones include an NRC license to construct for Clinch River as soon as 2026.

Financials

Annual Summary

Key Ratios (Trailing)

The Company

GE Vernova is a global electric-power equipment, services, and software company. Its 10-K describes it as "a global leader in the electric power industry, with products and services that generate, transfer, orchestrate, convert, and store electricity," and says its installed base generates approximately 25% of the world's electricity. It reports in three segments: Power, which makes gas and steam turbines and sells services; Wind, which makes onshore and offshore turbines and blades; and Electrification, which makes HVDC transmission, substations, transformers, switchgear, synchronous condensers, and grid automation software.

The company manufactures across a global footprint — 27 facilities in the Americas, 26 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and 38 in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, per the 10-K. It assembles gas turbines in its own plants, where 325 machines had been installed and roughly 400 are targeted by the end of 2026. In early February 2026 it closed the $5.3B purchase of the remaining half of Prolec GE, adding transformer capacity in the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil. It also advances a small modular reactor, the BWRX-300, through its GE Vernova Hitachi venture.

Business Segments

Competitive Landscape

The 10-K lists competitors by segment. In Power it names Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power, Westinghouse, Framatome, and Rolls-Royce; in Wind, Vestas, Siemens-Gamesa, Nordex, Envision, and Goldwind; and in Electrification, Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, Siemens, Schneider Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, and ABB. The intel file describes heavy-duty gas turbines as an oligopolistic market in which GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power are the primary competitors, and says management describes industry heavy-duty supply and demand as balanced over the next six years. The intel file's neighbor read-through notes that ABB, Caterpillar, and Baker Hughes are all expanding capacity in data-center electrical and prime power.

Supply Chain

GE Vernova sits between material and component suppliers and the utilities, power producers, and data-center developers that buy its turbines and grid equipment. Most supplier and customer links in the source material come from a largely inferred relationship dataset; only a few carry documented quotes.