Cameco Corporation (CCJ) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Cameco mines and processes uranium, refines and converts it into fuel, manufactures CANDU fuel, and holds an equity interest in Westinghouse, which designs AP1000 reactors and services nuclear plants. That span across the nuclear fuel cycle and reactor technology is what links AI-driven demand for firm, carbon-free power to reactor orders and fuel demand. The AI exposure is indirect and embedded, not a reported revenue line.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.5B |
| Revenue Growth | −2.0% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 23.4% |
| Net Cash | $73M |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- FY2025 revenue rose 11% to ~$3.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to ~$1.9 billion.
- Consolidated uranium production reached 21 million lbs in 2025, beating revised guidance, with record UF6 output at Port Hope.
- The uranium contract book held ~230 million lbs committed at end-2025, with five-year average deliveries above 28 million lbs per year.
- Westinghouse disclosed a 91-reactor AP1000 pipeline; twin-pack economics show $20–26 billion total spend with Westinghouse at 40–45% and ~20% project EBITDA margin.
- The DOE announced a conditional commitment up to $17.5 billion for AP1000 long-lead items, with a DOC term sheet targeting minimum $80 billion in financing.
What We’re Watching
- Industry 2025 uranium term contracting was 116 million lbs, below replacement rate; McArthur River acceleration is explicitly tied to replacement-rate contracting.
- Northern Saskatchewan disruptions in 2026 included a May flood/bridge collapse and a July Cigar Lake acid-plant suspension; management said no impact on annual outlook and credited the flexibility built into its supply strategy.
- Westinghouse 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to USD 370–430 million, below 2025 due to a ~USD 170 million Dukovany contribution; core renewals and uprates are slower than management hoped.
- The 91-reactor AP1000 pipeline has no probabilities assigned, and the DOC program has no named projects yet; the first long-lead-item order remains pending.
The thesis is intact and strengthening at the strategic level: price realization is improving, the U.S. government programs are progressing, and Westinghouse is moving toward a potential public listing. Near-term volume, however, remains deliberately restrained until uranium term contracting reaches replacement rate. The open question is whether DOE definitive agreements and a first AP1000 long-lead-item order arrive in 2026, converting the pipeline into contracted work.
Earnings Beat
Q2 FY2026 revenue fell to $573.5 million from $644.8 million a year earlier; gross margin narrowed to 21.1% from 29.3%; EBITDA was $118.0 million versus $185.6 million; net income was $17.8 million versus $235.9 million. Management attributed the decline largely to a ~USD 170 million one-time Dukovany contribution in the year-ago quarter.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $574M | $608M | $645M | −11.1% |
| Gross margin | 21.1% | 35.7% | 29.3% | -820bps |
| EBITDA | $118M | $166M | $186M | −36.4% |
| EPS | $0.04 | $0.22 | $0.54 | −92.5% |
We are currently on track with our expectations for the year.— Tim Gitzel, 2026-07-31
Management tone: Management set a controlled, disciplined tone on the Q2 2026 call, with a stronger emphasis on delivery and execution. Executives repeatedly characterized limited near-term contracting as deliberate price-discovery rather than weak demand, and they declined to discuss Westinghouse IPO details, citing SEC restrictions.
Management Guidance
Management initiated 2026 guidance on 2026-02-13 and held it unchanged through Q1 and Q2 2026: uranium production 19.5–21.5 million lbs, Fuel Services production 13–14 million kgU, uranium deliveries 29–32 million lbs, average realized uranium price CAD 85–89/lb, Cameco share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA USD 370–430 million, JV Inkai Cameco share 4.2 million lbs, and planned spot/committed purchases up to 3 million lbs. The only discussed change was cost-side, driven by foreign exchange rather than operations.
Trajectory
The code-computed revenue signal is accelerating, but the quarters remain delivery-lumpy: Q4 FY2025 revenue was $874.5 million, then $607.5 million in Q1 FY2026 and $573.5 million in Q2 FY2026. Margins are compressing — Q2 FY2026 gross margin was 21.1% versus 29.3% a year earlier, and TTM EBITDA margin sits at 23.4%. The pattern reflects strong year-end deliveries and management's deliberate pacing of volumes rather than a smooth growth line.
The Model
No projection published for this company. The model has no current projection for Cameco, so there are no model-generated FY+1 or FY+2 revenue or EBITDA figures to report. The forward view rests on management's 2026 guidance and on catalysts such as DOE definitive agreements, a first AP1000 long-lead-item order, and replacement-rate uranium contracting.
The model publishes revenue and EBITDA projections only where the evidence supports them. Where it does not, nothing is shown rather than an estimate.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months hinge on the AP1000 program's conversion from financing to physical orders. Management has pointed to DOE definitive agreements with named utilities, a possible first AP1000 long-lead-item order in 2026, and positive Westinghouse backlog progression. Uranium term contracting at replacement rate remains the key demand signal for McArthur River acceleration, while conversion contract negotiations target 10–15 year tenors.
- 2026First AP1000 long-lead-item order — Management said there is a good chance of one in 2026; tests physical ordering.
- 2026DOE definitive agreements — Converts up to $17.5B conditional commitment into named utility projects.
- H2 2026Cigar Lake restart confirmation — H2 results confirm acid-plant suspension left no annual impact.
- No timeframeMcArthur River expansion decision — Tied to fuel buyers collectively contracting at replacement rate.
- No timeframe10–15 year conversion contracts — Would validate Fuel Services pricing and capacity strategy.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.5B | +11.0% |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | 30.8% | 27.9% | +485bps |
| EBITDA | $571M | $656M | $2.8B | +14.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 25.2% | 26.1% | 23.4% | +90bps |
| Net Income | $121M | $429M | $257M | +255.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $423M | $784M | $2.6B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)27.9%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)23.4%
- Net Margin (TTM)10.3%
- ROIC5.8%
- FCF Conversion66.8%
- SBC / Revenue0.2%
The Company
Cameco is an integrated nuclear fuel-cycle company. Its operations span uranium mining, refining, UO2 and UF6 conversion, and CANDU fuel manufacturing, and it holds a 49% interest in Westinghouse Electric Company alongside Brookfield, plus an investment in Global Laser Enrichment (GLE). The 40-F describes the company as controlling the world's largest high-grade mineral reserves and holding about 18% of world primary conversion capacity.
The physical backbone is concentrated in Saskatchewan: McArthur River, Key Lake, and Cigar Lake cover mining and milling, while Blind River and Port Hope handle refining and conversion. Port Hope is described as the only uranium conversion facility in Canada. Cameco also operates Inkai in Kazakhstan and Westinghouse fuel fabrication sites in South Carolina, the United Kingdom, and Sweden.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Cameco's competitive position rests on scarce, licensed, multi-decade uranium and conversion assets and on Westinghouse's design-complete AP1000 reactor technology. Management emphasizes that the AP1000 is no longer first of a kind, with a finalized design and fixed procurement scope that supports consistent Westinghouse economics across jurisdictions.
- Neighbor evidence cited in the source set includes BWXT backlog growth, but no specific figures or quotes are provided.
Supply Chain
Cameco spans the nuclear fuel cycle — uranium mining, refining, UO2/UF6 conversion, CANDU fuel manufacturing, and through Westinghouse, light-water reactor fuel and AP1000 reactor technology.
More on CCJ: Earnings recap