NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
NuScale designs and licenses a factory-fabricated light-water small modular reactor, the NuScale Power Module, and expects to sell associated nuclear steam supply system equipment and services. It sits upstream in the AI buildout: its modules would supply carbon-free electricity to developers serving data-center and hyperscaler load growth, rather than selling power or AI services directly.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $19M |
| Revenue Growth | −61.9% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -3800.0% |
| Net Cash | $889M |
| Earnings Beats | 2 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Two NRC standard design approvals: the 50 MWe and 77 MWe designs, with the second standard design approval for the 6-unit 77 MWe configuration received in May 2025.
- Approximately $1.9 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and investments at June 30, 2026, with no debt on the balance sheet.
- Doosan has 12 NuScale Power Modules' long-lead material in active production over a roughly two-year period, with capacity planned to expand from 20 modules per year to 40.
- More than half of 60-plus supplier relationships are under negotiated agreements.
- Framatome fuel design agreement was signed ahead of any customer contract, with the company running on commercial low-enriched uranium.
What We’re Watching
- TVA/ENTRA1 PPA was once expected by end of 2025; latest language is "active and progressing" with no date.
- RoPower pre-EPC start slipped from Q2 2026; final notice to proceed is "probably another year from now."
- Revenue has collapsed to near zero: Q2 2026 was $0.1 million versus $8.1 million in Q2 2025.
- The August 11, 2026 8-K material agreement is unexplained in the evidence pack.
The readiness thesis is intact: NRC approvals, Doosan production, supplier agreements, and fuel design have all been kept. The commercial-conversion thesis is weakening on timing, because the TVA PPA and RoPower pre-EPC have slipped again and management has moved from dates to waiting language. The open question is whether the ENTRA1/TVA PPA converts, because without it the core business remains pre-revenue.
Earnings
NuScale reported Q2 2026 revenue of $0.1 million, down from $8.1 million in Q2 2025. Q2 gross margin was not disclosed in the source material. The standout metric was liquidity: approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, up $900 million from March 31, 2026.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1M | $2M | $13M | −95.5% |
| Gross margin | -43.2% | -3.4% | 52.4% | -9560bps |
| EBITDA | −$57M | −$72M | −$35M | +63.4% |
| EPS | $-0.27 | $-0.31 | $-0.11 | +145.2% |
| Cash, cash equivalents, and investments | ~$1.9B | $1.0B | n/a | — |
We closed Q2 with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, an increase of $900 million since March 31, 2026.— Robert Hamady, Chief Financial Officer, 2026-08-05
Management tone: Management's tone shifted from Q1's pointed competitive fire and "later this year" PPA language to Q2's more sober readiness message. It added no new commercial certainty, declined to provide PPA gating details or unit economics, and was direct on cash and liquidity. The posture moved from "it's coming later this year" to "we are ready when others decide."
Management Guidance
No formal revenue or earnings guidance was issued. Management declined to provide capital cost per NPM or dollars per kilowatt-hour. The CFO said, "As project activity advances, we expect both our product and services revenue to grow." The Q1 2026 hope to be operationally cash flow positive by end of 2026 was not repeated in Q2. On RoPower, the CEO said in Q&A that if the contract is in place, "there will be revenue next year," pointing to 2027 rather than 2026.
Trajectory
Revenue has decelerated to near zero as the RoPower technology license agreement and Fluor FEED Phase 2 work completed in late 2025. Q1 2026 revenue was $0.6 million, down from $13.4 million a year earlier, and gross margin turned negative. Free cash flow was negative $316.2 million in Q1 2026. The decline is driven by contract completion, not by weakening demand; the next revenue inflection depends on a PPA or OEM contract.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $2.1 million with EBITDA of -$235 million, an EBITDA margin of -11,190%. FY+2 revenue is projected at $3.0 million with EBITDA of -$259 million, an EBITDA margin of -9,067%. Near-term revenue is anchored by contract-dependent services with no signed PPA, and FY+2 reflects only a slight step-up while the business remains pre-commercial.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32M | $2M | $3M |
| YoY Growth | — | −93.3% | +42.9% |
| EBITDA | −$688M | −$235M | −$259M |
| EBITDA Margin | -2185.4% | -11190.0% | -9067.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
No formal revenue or earnings guidance was issued. Management declined to provide capital cost per NPM or dollars per kilowatt-hour. The CFO said, "As project activity advances, we expect both our product and services revenue to grow." The Q1 2026 hope to be operationally cash flow positive by end of 2026 was not repeated in Q2. On RoPower, the CEO said in Q&A that if the contract is in place, "there will be revenue next year," pointing to 2027 rather than 2026.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A definitive TVA/ENTRA1 PPA would restart COLA work and begin OEM negotiations, converting the 6 GW pipeline from optionality to a concrete program.
- A signed OEM contract with staged payments from ENTRA1 would be a cash-positive event for NuScale.
- RoPower pre-EPC start would provide a second visible revenue stream; the CEO said if a contract is in place, revenue would arrive next year.
- A named hyperscaler, data-center, or behind-the-meter customer would directly evidence the AI demand thesis converting beyond the TVA channel.
- The August 11, 2026 8-K material agreement could resolve several open commercial questions at once if it is commercially significant.
- The TVA/ENTRA1 PPA may not convert or may keep slipping; the source material shows no equally large disclosed substitute.
- RoPower remains gated on financing, the Fluor prime contract, and a newly seated Romanian government; final notice to proceed is "probably another year from now."
- Revenue could stay near zero while quarterly operating expense remains in the $55 million to $58 million range, pressuring EBITDA.
- Utility first-of-a-kind risk resistance could keep SMRs as optionality rather than committed procurement.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months are event-driven. The disclosed sequence is PPA, then OEM contract, then COLA and pre-FEED work, then production and delivery. Management has given no dated certainty for the first link, but has said additional supplier announcements are expected across cranes, module handling, and valves. RoPower's pre-EPC phase depends on financing and the new Romanian government, with final notice to proceed "probably another year from now."
- August 11, 2026Unexplained 8-K material agreement — Counterparty and scope not disclosed; highest-priority unresolved item.
- Later August 2026RoPower Bucharest meetings — CEO and COO planned to meet new Romanian government.
- Timing unknownDefinitive TVA/ENTRA1 PPA — If signed, restarts COLA, pre-FEED, and OEM negotiations.
- Following PPAOEM contract negotiation — Staged payments from ENTRA1; expected cash-positive for NuScale.
- 2027RoPower revenue possible — CEO: if contract is in place, revenue next year.
- Expected, no dateAdditional supplier announcements — Cranes, module handling, valves, and more.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37M | $32M | $19M | -15.1% |
| Gross Margin | 46.9% | 26.0% | 22.3% | 2,095bps |
| EBITDA | −$137M | −$688M | −$1.6B | -403.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | -368.7% | -2185.4% | -3800.0% | 181,666bps |
| Net Income | −$137M | −$356M | −$386M | -160.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$109M | −$460M | −$1.3B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)22.3%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-3800.0%
- Net Margin (TTM)-2062.6%
- ROIC-202.6%
- SBC / Revenue78.6%
The Company
NuScale develops and sells a factory-fabricated light-water small modular reactor called the NuScale Power Module, currently rated at 77 MWe, plus associated nuclear steam supply system equipment and services. It holds NRC standard design approvals for two designs, the 50 MWe and 77 MWe modules, and in May 2025 received its second standard design approval for the 6-unit, 77 MWe configuration. The company operates as a single segment and runs on commercial low-enriched uranium.
NuScale describes itself as an asset-light technology provider, not a manufacturer, developer, or plant owner. ENTRA1 Energy is its exclusive global strategic partner for commercialization and development. Doosan Enerbility is the primary manufacturer of NPM major components, and Fluor Corporation is the prime contractor on the RoPower project. Facilities include a Corvallis, Oregon engineering center of about 29,203 square feet, a Houston Energy Corridor operations center opened April 29, 2026, and a Rockville, Maryland NRC-facing office of 2,014 square feet.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Management positions NuScale as the only SMR company to have earned NRC standard design approval, and in Q1 2026 pointed to Part 50 applicants and ACRS warnings. It also contrasts its commercial low-enriched uranium fuel with competitors dependent on HALEU. The 10-K names Rosatom and China National Nuclear Corporation as operating commercial SMRs abroad; X-energy appears only via Fluor's neighbor transcript.
- Rosatom10-K names Rosatom as currently operating commercial SMRs in Russia.
- China National Nuclear Corporation10-K names China National Nuclear Corporation as currently operating commercial SMRs in China.
Supply Chain
NuScale sits upstream as a technology licensing layer between reactor component suppliers and plant developers. Neighbors Mirion and Curtiss-Wright disclosed SMR order growth, but the $35 million Mirion award is not confirmed as NuScale.
More on SMR: Earnings recap