VST

Vistra Corp

Q1 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-07$1.25 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Largest competitive power generator in the United States with ~41 GW of installed capacity spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage — increasingly contracting its nuclear and gas fleet directly to hyperscaler data centers through long-term power purchase agreements.

Why they matter:

AI data centers require massive, reliable, always-on power, and Vistra's 6,400 MW nuclear fleet (including Comanche Peak) plus its unmatched gas generation portfolio represent some of the most difficult-to-replicate baseload capacity in the country — assets that cannot be built on any reasonable timeline.

Recent performance:

Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.9B (+22% YoY guidance for 2026 to $6.8-7.6B), with landmark 20-year nuclear PPAs signed with Amazon Web Services (~1,200 MW from Comanche Peak) and Meta (PJM nuclear fleet), plus a $4B acquisition of Cogentrix's 5,500 MW gas fleet announced in January 2026.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEstablished
Rel. ValueCompelling

Largest competitive power generator in the US with a 6,400 MW nuclear fleet and 20-year AWS PPA — real AI power exposure, but the stock has risen 540% since early 2024 and trades at 8-9x 2026E EBITDA, pricing in most known catalysts.

Structural trends

Explosive data center electricity demand (projected 4% to 10% of US grid by 2030)nuclear renaissance driven by carbon-free baseload scarcitylong-duration PPAs replacing merchant power exposurenatural gas as the bridge fuel for AI buildoutbattery storage providing grid flexibility and peaking capacity

Structural

79

/ 100

Moat

7/10

6,400 MW nuclear fleet is irreplaceable baseload with 20+ year PPAs — cannot be replicated, but gas fleet is commodity

AI Exp.

Embedded

~18% AI

Play Type

Established

AI Growth

~20%

Rel. Value

75

COMPELLING

PriceLIVE

$163.97

+3.65%

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Market Cap

$55.5B

P/E Ratio

75.2

P/S Ratio

3.1x

52W High

$219.82

52W Low

$103.34

52W Chg

58.7%

Beta

1.50

The Catch

Vistra's stock has risen ~540% from early 2024 to April 2026, driven almost entirely by the narrative that nuclear and gas power plants are the foundational layer of the AI buildout. The narrative is correct — data center power demand is real and growing — but the stock price now embeds substantial expectations. The Q4 2025 earnings miss (EPS $2.13 vs $2.33 consensus, revenue $4.58B vs $5.3B) demonstrates that Vistra is still a power company subject to weather, outages, commodity prices, and seasonal patterns, not a software company with predictable recurring revenue. The Cogentrix deal adds execution risk: $4B in total consideration, $1.5B of assumed debt, and integration of 10 gas facilities across three ISOs. Coal assets (~4,000 MW) remain a declining liability with environmental remediation costs. And the nuclear co-location model that underpins the highest-value part of the thesis faces regulatory uncertainty — FERC is actively reviewing whether behind-the-meter nuclear arrangements should be permitted, and an unfavorable ruling could restrict future nuclear PPA structures.

If They Win

If Vistra successfully closes Cogentrix, executes on the AWS and Meta nuclear PPAs, converts additional gas and nuclear capacity into long-term data center contracts, and navigates the regulatory landscape favorably, it becomes the dominant infrastructure-layer power provider for the AI buildout — a company with 45,000+ MW of dispatchable generation, 6,400+ MW of irreplaceable nuclear baseload, and multi-decade contracted revenue from the largest technology companies on earth. The financial model transforms: from a cyclical merchant power generator trading at 5-6x EBITDA to a contracted infrastructure company warranting 10-12x — implying meaningful upside on $8B+ EBITDA. The integrated retail business provides a natural hedge and stable cash generation, battery storage adds grid services revenue, and nuclear uprates and SMR optionality extend the growth runway into the 2030s. In this scenario, Vistra is not just a utility that benefits from AI — it is the power backbone that makes AI physically possible.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.