Vistra Corp. (VST) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure

The Verdict

Vistra owns and operates the power generation and retail electricity that AI data centers increasingly rely on. Its fleet spans nuclear, gas, coal, solar, and battery assets across all major competitive U.S. wholesale power markets, and its AI role runs through long-term power contracts, co-location, new build, and a rack-to-grid partnership.

Earnings

Vistra's latest quarter, Q2 2026, is reported through Adjusted EBITDA rather than revenue or gross margin in the source material. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.767B, up more than 30% year over year from ~$1.35B, with Generation at ~$994M and Retail at ~$773M; GAAP net income was $305M including a $472M unrealized hedge loss.

Management tone: Management shifted from Q1 confidence that ERCOT forwards would improve to Q2 acknowledgment that current ERCOT forward curves are meaningfully lower. It widened the ERCOT load-growth lower bound from 5% to 4% through 2030, disclosed a lower-end 2027 bias before pending items, and replaced much of the Q1 bridge-power discussion with Helix and co-location emphasis.

Management Guidance

Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8B–$7.6B and Adjusted FCF before Growth of $3.925B–$4.725B, saying 2026 should land at or above the midpoint. The 2027 midpoint opportunity range of $7.4B–$7.8B was maintained but described as not guidance; management said 2027 would likely trend toward the lower end before Cogentrix and Meta, which together would add roughly $700M to the midpoint opportunity, absent other impacts. Guidance excludes Cogentrix, Meta, and any nuclear PTC benefit.

Trajectory

On the audited data spine, reported revenue is decelerating: $4,971M in Q3 2025 fell to $2,338M in Q4 2025 before rebounding to $4,654M in Q1 2026, with trailing revenue growth of -25.5% YoY. Gross margin compressed 170bps and EBITDA margin compressed 400bps, while TTM FCF conversion was 50% of net income. The latest Q2 adjusted print is stronger, but the reported bar remains very hard.

The Model

The model's FY+1 projection is revenue of $23,000M and EBITDA of $7,383M, a 32.1% margin; FY+2 is revenue of $26,500M and EBITDA of $8,400M, a 31.7% margin. The FY+1 EBITDA projection sits within management's 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range, while FY+2 depends on conversion of the ~4,500 MW organic pipeline and the excluded Cogentrix and Meta uplift.

Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 8.1% below analyst consensus.

Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8B–$7.6B and Adjusted FCF before Growth of $3.925B–$4.725B, saying 2026 should land at or above the midpoint. The 2027 midpoint opportunity range of $7.4B–$7.8B was maintained but described as not guidance; management said 2027 would likely trend toward the lower end before Cogentrix and Meta, which together would add roughly $700M to the midpoint opportunity, absent other impacts. Guidance excludes Cogentrix, Meta, and any nuclear PTC benefit.

What Could Go Right — and Wrong

Looking Ahead

The next 12 months are defined by the pending Cogentrix close, the Q3 2026 guidance update, and regulatory actions in ERCOT and PJM. The ERCOT Batch Zero audit is expected to run "a couple months," the PJM/FERC co-location compliance filing is expected within roughly 30–60 days, and Comanche Peak data center energization remains targeted for the end of 2027. Helix is early-stage but is intended to broaden origination, while the ~4,500 MW development pipeline is scheduled to be mostly online by 2028.

Financials

Annual Summary

Key Ratios (Trailing)

The Company

Vistra owns and operates an integrated retail electricity and power generation business serving customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine, with operations in 18 states and the District of Columbia across all major competitive U.S. wholesale power markets. Its AI-infrastructure role is indirect but direct at the point of power: AI data centers need electricity, and Vistra owns and develops generation. The clearest links are long-term PPAs with Meta and AWS, co-location at existing nuclear and gas sites, new-build development, and the Helix Digital Infrastructure partnership with KKR, NVIDIA, and Kuwait Investment Authority.

The company operates five disclosed segments—Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure—and pairs merchant generation with a retail book of approximately 5 million customers. It controls hundreds of thousands of acres and 70 sites. Disclosed nuclear assets include Comanche Peak, Beaver Valley, Perry, and Davis-Besse; pending organic development totals about 4,500 MW, with the majority expected online by 2028, and it is pursuing coal-to-gas conversions at Coleto Creek and Miami Fort.

Business Segments

Competitive Landscape

The disclosed competitive picture is crowded: AEP is locking up data-center load with regulated capital and pre-secured turbines, Constellation and Talen appear alongside Vistra in the nuclear-renaissance theme, and Cipher Mining is exploring behind-the-meter self-generation. Vistra's answer is speed to power from existing interconnected assets, but the material leaves open how much large-load demand chooses merchant bilateral contracts versus regulated or self-generation paths.

Supply Chain

Vistra sits between fuel and equipment suppliers and power-hungry customers. The supply-chain file identifies supplier and customer relationships—many inferred rather than confirmed in company disclosures. Cipher Mining's transcript names Luminant, Vistra's merchant generation subsidiary.