VST
Vistra Corp
Summary
What they do:
Largest competitive power generator in the United States with ~41 GW of installed capacity spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage — increasingly contracting its nuclear and gas fleet directly to hyperscaler data centers through long-term power purchase agreements.
Why they matter:
AI data centers require massive, reliable, always-on power, and Vistra's 6,400 MW nuclear fleet (including Comanche Peak) plus its unmatched gas generation portfolio represent some of the most difficult-to-replicate baseload capacity in the country — assets that cannot be built on any reasonable timeline.
Recent performance:
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.9B (+22% YoY guidance for 2026 to $6.8-7.6B), with landmark 20-year nuclear PPAs signed with Amazon Web Services (~1,200 MW from Comanche Peak) and Meta (PJM nuclear fleet), plus a $4B acquisition of Cogentrix's 5,500 MW gas fleet announced in January 2026.
Our Verdict
Largest competitive power generator in the US with a 6,400 MW nuclear fleet and 20-year AWS PPA — real AI power exposure, but the stock has risen 540% since early 2024 and trades at 8-9x 2026E EBITDA, pricing in most known catalysts.
Structural trends
Structural
79
/ 100
Moat
7/10
6,400 MW nuclear fleet is irreplaceable baseload with 20+ year PPAs — cannot be replicated, but gas fleet is commodity
AI Exp.AI Exposure
Embedded~18% AI
Play Type
EstablishedAI Growth
~20%
Rel. Value
75
COMPELLINGPriceLIVE
$163.97
+3.65%
Live via Yahoo Finance · refreshes every 5 min
Market Cap
$55.5B
P/E Ratio
75.2
P/S Ratio
3.1x
52W High
$219.82
52W Low
$103.34
52W Chg
58.7%
Beta
1.50
Vistra Corp is headquartered in Irving, Texas, and operates the largest competitive power generation fleet in the United States. After completing its $3.4B acquisition of Energy Harbor in 2024 and announcing the $4B Cogentrix deal in January 2026, Vistra's portfolio spans approximately 41,000 MW of generation capacity across nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage — with another 5,500 MW of modern gas plants incoming from Cogentrix. The company also runs one of the largest retail electricity businesses in the country under brands including TXU Energy, Dynegy, and Luminant, serving approximately 5 million residential and commercial customers.
The AI narrative transformed Vistra's investment thesis beginning in 2024. The company's nuclear fleet — Comanche Peak's two units in Texas (~2,400 MW) plus the three Energy Harbor plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio (Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse, Perry, totaling ~4,000 MW) — became among the most sought-after power assets in the country when hyperscalers began competing for long-term, carbon-free baseload electricity. In September 2025, Vistra signed a 20-year PPA with Amazon Web Services for 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak, with delivery beginning Q4 2027 and ramping to full capacity by 2032. The agreement includes options to explore nuclear uprates and small modular reactor development. Vistra also signed nuclear PPAs with Meta for capacity at its PJM facilities, bringing total contracted nuclear capacity to approximately 3,800 MW. These contracts convert what was formerly merchant power exposure into decades-long contracted revenue at premium pricing.
Beyond nuclear, Vistra's natural gas fleet is the backbone of the story. The Cogentrix acquisition adds 10 modern gas facilities (three combined-cycle, two combustion turbine in PJM, four combined-cycle in ISO-NE, one cogeneration in ERCOT), and the company is expanding its Permian Basin Power Plant from 325 MW to 1,185 MW. Gas generation provides the dispatchable, fast-ramping capacity that data centers need for reliability — and that renewables alone cannot deliver. Vistra is actively engaged in co-location discussions with large load customers like data centers for potential power sales from both nuclear and gas plants through long-term agreements.
Vistra also operates one of the largest battery energy storage portfolios in the US, anchored by the Moss Landing facility in California (750 MW / 3,000 MWh — the world's largest lithium battery storage system). Total BESS capacity is expected to exceed 1,200 MW by 2026. The integrated retail business contributed $1.6B in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, providing a natural hedge against wholesale market volatility and a stable cash flow base. Full year 2025 revenue was $17.7B, adjusted EBITDA was $5.9B, and adjusted free cash flow before growth was $3.6B. The company has ~$1.8B remaining in share repurchase authorization and targets at least $1B in additional buybacks through 2027.
Supply Chain Dependencies
Upstream Suppliers
Downstream Customers
The Catch
Vistra's stock has risen ~540% from early 2024 to April 2026, driven almost entirely by the narrative that nuclear and gas power plants are the foundational layer of the AI buildout. The narrative is correct — data center power demand is real and growing — but the stock price now embeds substantial expectations. The Q4 2025 earnings miss (EPS $2.13 vs $2.33 consensus, revenue $4.58B vs $5.3B) demonstrates that Vistra is still a power company subject to weather, outages, commodity prices, and seasonal patterns, not a software company with predictable recurring revenue. The Cogentrix deal adds execution risk: $4B in total consideration, $1.5B of assumed debt, and integration of 10 gas facilities across three ISOs. Coal assets (~4,000 MW) remain a declining liability with environmental remediation costs. And the nuclear co-location model that underpins the highest-value part of the thesis faces regulatory uncertainty — FERC is actively reviewing whether behind-the-meter nuclear arrangements should be permitted, and an unfavorable ruling could restrict future nuclear PPA structures.
If They Win
If Vistra successfully closes Cogentrix, executes on the AWS and Meta nuclear PPAs, converts additional gas and nuclear capacity into long-term data center contracts, and navigates the regulatory landscape favorably, it becomes the dominant infrastructure-layer power provider for the AI buildout — a company with 45,000+ MW of dispatchable generation, 6,400+ MW of irreplaceable nuclear baseload, and multi-decade contracted revenue from the largest technology companies on earth. The financial model transforms: from a cyclical merchant power generator trading at 5-6x EBITDA to a contracted infrastructure company warranting 10-12x — implying meaningful upside on $8B+ EBITDA. The integrated retail business provides a natural hedge and stable cash generation, battery storage adds grid services revenue, and nuclear uprates and SMR optionality extend the growth runway into the 2030s. In this scenario, Vistra is not just a utility that benefits from AI — it is the power backbone that makes AI physically possible.
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Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.