WMB

Williams Companies

Q1 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-04$0.63 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Williams Companies operates the Transco pipeline system — the largest natural gas transmission network in the United States at 33,000+ miles — transporting roughly 20% of all US natural gas consumption from production basins (Marcellus, Permian, Haynesville) to consumption centers across the Eastern Seaboard, sitting at L20 in the AI infrastructure stack as the physical fuel transport layer that feeds the gas-fired power plants powering data centers.

Why they matter:

AI data center buildout requires massive new gas-fired power generation, and Transco is the irreplaceable backbone delivering fuel to power plants in the highest-density data center corridors (Virginia, Ohio, Southeast). Williams is now directly entering data center power with $5.1B committed to its Power Innovation portfolio, including Project Socrates — a 400 MW gas-fired power facility in New Albany, Ohio, purpose-built to serve a Meta-affiliated data center campus, targeting late 2026 commissioning.

Recent performance:

Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.55 beat consensus of $0.52 by 5.8%; full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA hit a record $7.75B (five-year CAGR of 9%); 2026 guidance raised to $8.05-$8.35B adjusted EBITDA; stock trading ~$71 with ~$89B market cap, near 52-week highs.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEstablished
Rel. ValueAttractive

The natural gas highway feeding America's data center power plants — essential infrastructure with regulated returns and a growing power generation portfolio that moves WMB from fuel shipper to data center energy provider.

Structural trends

US natural gas demand resilient at ~140 Bcf/day with data center power load adding incremental demandLNG export expansion driving pipeline utilization$5.1B Power Innovation portfolio creating direct data center revenue exposureSoutheast Supply Enhancement ($1.53B1.6M Dth/day) approved by FERC with 2027 in-service targetNortheast Supply Enhancement breaking ground April 2026 — the first new gas pipeline in New York in over a decade

Structural

67

/ 100

Moat

8/10

Regulated pipeline infrastructure with 15-25yr take-or-pay contracts; dominant Eastern Seaboard corridor positioning

AI Exp.

Stub

~5% AI

Play Type

Established

AI Growth

~15-25%

Rel. Value

63

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$71.44

-0.14%

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Market Cap

$87.4B

P/E Ratio

33.4

P/S Ratio

7.4x

52W High

$76.87

52W Low

$55.56

52W Chg

28.6%

Beta

0.65

Supply Chain Dependencies

The Catch

Williams' AI relevance is real but still indirect for the core pipeline business. Data center power demand increases gas consumption at the margin — perhaps 5-10% incremental throughput over a decade. The Power Innovation portfolio changes this narrative by creating direct data center revenue, but it is early-stage with zero revenue today and $5.1B of capital committed. If Project Socrates fails, delays, or faces cost overruns, the strategic pivot narrative unwinds and the stock reverts to a pure pipeline utility valuation.

If They Win

If the Power Innovation portfolio succeeds at scale — Project Socrates commissions on time, Williams signs 3-5 more hyperscaler power deals, and modular gas-fired power becomes the default solution for data center campuses that cannot wait for nuclear or grid upgrades — Williams transforms from a pipeline toll collector into the integrated gas-to-power platform for AI infrastructure. Transco delivers the fuel, Williams' power facilities generate the electricity, and hyperscalers get turnkey energy at a single data center campus. EBITDA grows to $10B+ by 2029. The stock re-rates from pipeline utility (12x EV/EBITDA) to integrated infrastructure platform (15x EV/EBITDA). At 15x $10B EBITDA, enterprise value reaches $150B, implying ~$120 per share — 70%+ upside from current levels. Dividend grows to $2.50+. Williams becomes the Enbridge of the AI era. But this is the bull case, not the base case — execution risk on a $5.1B greenfield portfolio is substantial.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.