CEG

Constellation Energy

Q1 FY2026 earnings · 2026-05-11$2.57 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Operates the largest fleet of nuclear power plants in the United States — 21 reactors post-Calpine acquisition — generating reliable, carbon-free baseload electricity and selling it directly to hyperscaler data centers through long-term power purchase agreements, sitting upstream of every AI data center as the company that keeps the lights on.

Why they matter:

AI data centers need 24/7, carbon-free, gigawatt-scale power that solar and wind cannot deliver alone — nuclear is the only proven source that meets all three requirements, and Constellation has more uncommitted clean firm megawatt-hours (147 million MWh) than all other US competitive-market nuclear operators combined.

Recent performance:

FY2025 adjusted operating EPS $9.39, beating guidance for the fourth consecutive year. Initiated 2026 EPS guidance of $11-$12, projecting a 20% base EPS CAGR through 2029. Stock trading at ~$287, down 30% from 52-week high of $413.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEmerging
Rel. ValueAttractive

The largest US nuclear fleet is being re-rated from a utility into an AI infrastructure play — 20% base EPS CAGR through 2029 with 147M MWh of uncommitted clean power, but PJM regulatory clarity and deal execution remain the swing factors on a stock trading at ~39x after a 30% pullback.

Structural trends

Nuclear renaissance for AI data centerspower as the binding constraint on AI infrastructurehyperscaler direct PPA model replacing grid procurementgas turbines as bridge power

Structural

87

/ 100

Moat

10/10

Irreplaceable nuclear fleet

AI Exp.

Embedded

~20% AI

Play Type

Emerging

AI Growth

~50%+

Rel. Value

57

ATTRACTIVE

PriceLIVE

$296.61

+1.68%

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Market Cap

$107.5B

P/E Ratio

40.1

P/S Ratio

4.2x

52W High

$412.70

52W Low

$188.01

52W Chg

57.8%

Beta

1.19

The Catch

Constellation is the right company with the right assets at the right time — but the premium valuation (39x earnings) is built on the assumption that AI power demand sustains and converts into signed PPAs at premium prices. PJM regulatory proceedings could structurally change how nuclear power reaches data centers, and the Crane restart is a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar project subject to NRC and FERC approvals. If regulatory clarity does not arrive in 2026, the deal pipeline that justifies the premium stalls — and enhanced earnings (40% of 2026 total) expose the stock to more volatility than a traditional utility. The Calpine integration adds execution complexity: $3.4 billion of debt to pay down, higher-than-expected depreciation, and divested assets leaving holes in the earnings base.

If They Win

If Constellation restarts Crane on schedule, signs multiple hyperscaler PPAs from the 147 million MWh uncommitted position, and integrates Calpine's gas fleet into bundled nuclear-plus-peaking solutions, they become the power utility of the AI economy — the company that supplies the electricity every major AI data center runs on, with 20-year contracts, a nuclear fleet no competitor can replicate, government-backed tax credits that adjust for inflation, and a $5 billion buyback compressing the share count while earnings grow 20%+ annually. The base case alone — without any new deals — projects $11.40-$11.90 base EPS by 2029. With new PPAs on even a fraction of the uncommitted capacity, the compounding accelerates into the next decade.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.