LEU
Centrus Energy
Summary
What they do:
The only US-owned uranium enrichment company, operating a demonstration HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium) cascade in Piketon, Ohio, while running a legacy SWU trading and brokerage business that accounts for the vast majority of today's revenue.
Why they matter:
Advanced reactors — SMRs, HTGRs, molten salt designs — need HALEU fuel enriched to ~20% U-235, and Centrus is the sole licensed domestic producer. A $900M DOE award is funding a commercial-scale expansion, but the first new cascade is not expected online until 2029.
Recent performance:
FY2025 revenue $448.7M (+1.5% YoY), net income $77.8M. Guided 2026 revenue $425–475M. $3.8B backlog extending to 2040. Stock ~$200, market cap ~$3.9B.
Our Verdict
Only domestic HALEU enricher with a DOE contract — nuclear fuel monopoly for SMRs, but pre-revenue on HALEU with massive dilution risk and a $2.7B market cap riding on technology that may take a decade to deploy at scale.
Structural trends
Structural
76
/ 100
Moat
7/10
Only US HALEU enricher with DOE contract and NRC license — regulatory monopoly for now, but Russia can re-enter and centrifuge tech is replicable long-term
AI Exp.AI Exposure
Stub~5% AI
Play Type
SpeculativeAI Growth
~0%
Rel. Value
32
FAIRPriceLIVE
$193.11
+0.58%
Live via Yahoo Finance · refreshes every 5 min
Market Cap
$3.8B
P/E Ratio
49.5
P/S Ratio
8.5x
52W High
$464.25
52W Low
$60.52
52W Chg
219.1%
Beta
1.36
Centrus is two businesses wearing one ticker. The first — and by far the larger — is the LEU segment: a uranium enrichment services and SWU (separative work unit) trading operation. Centrus buys enrichment capacity from foreign suppliers (primarily Orano and, historically, Russian state-owned Tenex), then resells enriched uranium to US utilities under long-term contracts. This is essentially a brokerage and logistics operation with a $2.9B backlog. FY2025 LEU segment revenue was $346M.
The second business is Technical Solutions, which runs the HALEU demonstration cascade in Piketon, Ohio, under contract to the Department of Energy. This 16-centrifuge cascade produced over one metric ton of HALEU UF6 by the end of 2025 — a real milestone, but measured in kilograms, not the metric tons per year that commercial reactors will eventually need. Technical Solutions revenue was $102.5M in 2025, mostly cost-reimbursable government work.
The pivot everyone is betting on: Centrus was awarded $900M by the DOE in late 2025 to build commercial-scale HALEU enrichment at Piketon. The plan calls for a 120-centrifuge cascade producing ~6 MT/year of HALEU, with the first cascade expected online in 2029 and a target of 12+ MT/year sometime after 2030. Construction contractor Geiger Brothers has been selected. The company is also hiring 150+ new employees and advancing long-lead procurement.
The complication: the reactors that will burn this fuel — X-energy's Xe-100, Kairos Power's KP-FHR, TerraPower's Natrium — are themselves still in development. None are expected to reach commercial operation before 2030 at the earliest. So Centrus is building the gas station before the cars arrive, which is either brilliant foresight or a timing mismatch depending on your reactor deployment assumptions.
Supply Chain Dependencies
Upstream Suppliers
Downstream Customers
The Catch
The entire growth thesis depends on a technology ecosystem — advanced nuclear reactors — that is still pre-commercial. Centrus does not control when its customers will be ready to buy. The HALEU enrichment monopoly is real, but it protects a market that generates ~$100M/year in government contracts today, not the multi-billion-dollar fuel market that the stock price implies. If reactor developers hit their timelines, Centrus is a generational strategic asset. If they don't — and nuclear has a perfect track record of timeline slippage — Centrus is a $400M SWU brokerage trading at nearly 9x sales. The $900M DOE award funds the build, but it cannot manufacture customer demand.
If They Win
If the advanced reactor fleet deploys on schedule and HALEU demand scales to 10+ MT/year by the mid-2030s, Centrus becomes the fuel supply backbone of the next-generation nuclear industry. With proven centrifuge technology, first-mover commercial capacity, and years of production experience by that point, Centrus would hold a chokepoint position similar to TSMC in advanced chips — the entity everyone depends on, with no near-term alternative. Revenue could reach $1–2B with enrichment-grade margins. The strategic premium — energy security, defense applications, allied nation fuel supply — would make this one of the most irreplaceable companies in the energy infrastructure stack. The stock in that scenario is a multi-bagger from current levels.
Others in Generate the Power
Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.