Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Centrus Energy Corp. supplies nuclear fuel components and enrichment services. It operates a low-enriched uranium segment serving commercial utilities and a technical solutions segment that produces HALEU for advanced reactors and government customers. In the AI buildout, it is not a compute or data-center company; its role is the fuel behind the nuclear reactors tied to AI-driven electricity demand. The company is building domestic centrifuge manufacturing and enrichment capacity to move from a government demonstration program toward commercial supply.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $452M |
| Revenue Growth | −4.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 9.1% |
| Net Cash | $690M |
| Earnings Beats | 4 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Total backlog reached $4.5 billion and extends through 2040, including $3.0 billion of LEU/HALEU enrichment sales within the LEU segment.
- All financial contingencies were removed on more than $3 billion of customer contracts; $2.4 billion of the enrichment backlog is under definitive agreements.
- The $900 million DOE HALEU enrichment contract was signed July 1, 2026, with DOE options up to $170 million.
- X-energy signed a definitive LEU and HALEU supply agreement, and Oklo has an HALEU LOI covering up to 5 Aurora powerhouses with deliveries from 2029.
- Critical supplier contracts increased from about one-third in Q1 to about 75% in Q2, and Piketon hiring guidance was raised to over 175 net new employees.
What We’re Watching
- First centrifuge completion is targeted for 2026 but not yet complete; first new Piketon enrichment capacity is targeted for 2029.
- Through 2027, well over half of expected LEU deliveries are sourced under the TENEX Supply Contract, and the 10-K says other sources are not sufficient to replace it.
- Customer concentration is high: the top four customers represented 16%, 15%, 13%, and 11% of FY2025 revenue, and one Q1 Technical Solutions customer was $31.5 million of $32.1 million segment revenue.
- The new HALEU offtakers are early-stage: Oklo is still at LOI stage, and X-energy delivery cadence and terms were not disclosed.
The commercial-order evidence is strengthening: backlog grew, contingencies were removed, the DOE contract was signed, and first HALEU offtake agreements arrived. The thesis remains intact directionally, but near-term revenue is still broker, uranium, and government-led, and the core manufacturing proof is pending. The key open question is whether first-of-a-kind centrifuge production can reach the 2029 capacity target on time and on cost while TENEX dependence persists through 2027.
Earnings Beat
Centrus reported Q2 2026 revenue of $176.1 million, up 14% year over year, with gross profit of $49.9 million. GAAP net income was $16.8 million, down from $28.9 million a year earlier, while adjusted net income was $38.7 million. The standout was the backlog: $4.5 billion, with all financial contingencies removed from the $3.0 billion LEU/HALEU enrichment backlog.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $77M | $146M | $73M | +4.9% |
| Gross margin | 38.7% | 23.9% | 45.0% | -630bps |
| EBITDA | $3M | $16M | $22M | −86.4% |
| EPS | $0.45 | $0.79 | $1.60 | −72.1% |
| Total backlog | $4.5B | $3.9B | n/a | — |
We grew our backlog to $4.5 billion that extends through 2040. This is comprised of $3.7 billion in our LEU segment and $0.8 billion in our Technical Solutions segment.— Amir Vexler, CEO, Q2 2026 call
Management tone: Management's tone became more declarative from Q1 to Q2. It moved from describing the build-out as 'historic' and deconversion as 'exploring' to stating Centrus is 'leading the pack' and 'the go-to for HALEU supplies.'
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million and total capital spend of $350 million to $500 million. Piketon workforce additions were raised from over 100 to over 175 net new employees, while Oak Ridge remains at least 100. The company still targets 100% of critical partner contracts finalized and release of the first certified-for-construction package in FY2026.
Trajectory
Revenue is lumpy rather than linear: Q1 2026 was $76.7 million, up 5% year over year, and Q2 2026 was $176.1 million, up 14% year over year, with the Q2 increase carried by $53.4 million of uranium sales. SWU volume fell 47% in Q1 and 23% in Q2, while average SWU price rose 52% and 3%. Reported gross margin was 38.7% in Q1 and 28.3% in Q2, reflecting a mix shift toward lower-margin uranium sales; management points to TTM and adjusted figures because quarterly revenue is not a reliable trend signal.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $490 million and EBITDA of $81 million, a 16.6% margin, and FY+2 revenue of $660 million and EBITDA of $104 million, a 15.8% margin. The FY+1 revenue sits within management's current-year guidance band of $450 million to $500 million; the FY+2 step-up depends on continued conversion of the long-dated order book and build-out execution.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $449M | $490M | $660M |
| YoY Growth | — | +9.2% | +34.7% |
| EBITDA | $60M | $81M | $104M |
| EBITDA Margin | 13.4% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 33.5% above analyst consensus.
Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million and total capital spend of $350 million to $500 million. Piketon workforce additions were raised from over 100 to over 175 net new employees, while Oak Ridge remains at least 100. The company still targets 100% of critical partner contracts finalized and release of the first certified-for-construction package in FY2026.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- First Oak Ridge centrifuge is completed in 2026 and the certified-for-construction package is released, proving the manufacturing supply chain.
- The existing 16-centrifuge HALEU cascade transitions to private commercial operation before the 2029 capacity arrives.
- Oklo converts its LOI into a definitive HALEU agreement, and X-energy delivery cadence becomes visible.
- More utility LEU offtake follows the removal of financing contingencies, expanding the $3.0 billion enrichment backlog.
- NNSA awards a material sole-source enrichment contract, adding another government-funded leg.
- TENEX supply is disrupted through 2027, and alternative suppliers cannot replace it.
- First centrifuge completion slips past 2026 or the 2029 first-capacity target slips.
- X-energy or Oklo stumble before definitive delivery obligations bind.
- DOE discussions stall on private commercial operation of the existing cascade.
- SWU volume weakness continues, as seen in the 47% Q1 and 23% Q2 declines.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months are defined by manufacturing-readiness milestones rather than new capacity revenue. Management expects the first Oak Ridge centrifuge in 2026, the first certified-for-construction package in FY2026, and 100% of critical supplier contracts by year-end. Into early 2027, the IRS $62.4 million credit allocation certification is due on January 10, 2027.
- 2026First Oak Ridge centrifuge completion — Tests whether the domestic manufacturing supply chain has come together.
- FY2026First certified-for-construction package — Engineering readiness marker for new enrichment capacity.
- FY2026100% critical supplier contracts — Reached about 75% by Q2; target is full coverage.
- FY2026Piketon 175+ net hires — Workforce expansion target raised twice during 2026.
- 2029First new Piketon capacity — First new capacity from the transition expected online by 2029.
- January 10, 2027IRS credit allocation certification due — Evidence due for the $62.4 million credit allocation.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $442M | $449M | $452M | +1.5% |
| Gross Margin | 20.2% | 24.5% | 25.3% | +430bps |
| EBITDA | $59M | $60M | $240M | +2.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | 13.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% | +9bps |
| Net Income | $73M | $78M | $61M | +6.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $33M | $31M | $134M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)25.3%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)9.1%
- Net Margin (TTM)13.4%
- ROIC28.1%
- FCF Conversion-149.4%
- SBC / Revenue1.3%
The Company
Centrus Energy Corp. supplies nuclear fuel components and enrichment services across two segments. The LEU segment provides SWU, natural uranium hexafluoride, uranium concentrates, uranium conversion, and enriched uranium product to commercial utilities. The Technical Solutions segment provides HALEU and advanced manufacturing and engineering services, mainly to government and private customers. The company's role is fuel supply for existing reactors and emerging advanced reactors that are increasingly tied to AI-driven electricity demand.
Operations are anchored by three sites: an owned 440,000 square foot centrifuge manufacturing facility on 72 acres in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; a DOE-leased enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio with an existing 16-centrifuge HALEU cascade; and a leased 24,000 square foot headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland. The company is building out Oak Ridge manufacturing under a $560 million investment and expanding Piketon under a $900 million DOE task order. It uses Fluor as EPC contractor and Palantir as a strategic AI partner to optimize the build-out.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Centrus management describes the company as the only company with a proven American technology that can meet commercial LEU, HALEU, and national security demand; this is a management claim. The 10-K names Rosatom/TENEX, Urenco, CNEIC, and Orano as competitors. Management also frames the SWU market as a seller's market, with demand outstripping supply.
- Rosatom / TENEXRussian government entity; sells LEU through TENEX. Named in 10-K.
- UrencoConsortium owned/controlled by British and Dutch governments and two German utilities. Named in 10-K.
- CNEICChinese government-owned. Named in 10-K.
- OranoLargely French government-owned; also Centrus's second-largest SWU supplier.
Supply Chain
Centrus sits between enriched uranium suppliers and nuclear utilities and advanced reactor developers while building domestic centrifuge capacity to reduce reliance on imported SWU.
More on LEU: Earnings recap