Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Keel Infrastructure develops powered land and data centers and intends to lease that capacity to AI and HPC customers. It was Bitfarms, a Bitcoin miner, and is converting its existing sites — grid interconnections, power generation and data center shells — into HPC/AI campuses. The company's bet is that deliverable power in constrained markets, not chips or capital, is the bottleneck of the AI buildout, and that whoever already holds that power can lease it. Its legacy Bitcoin mining is being wound down to fund the transition.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $152M |
| Revenue Growth | −38.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -68.2% |
| Net Debt | $323M |
| Earnings Beats | 2 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Total liquidity reached $819M as of Aug 7, up from $533M in early May, after a $458M convertible closed in June (upsized from $350M). Management says it fully funds site development and cash SG&A through 2028.
- Three near-term sites hold 478 MW of secured capacity: Panther Creek 350 MW (PPL ESA), Sharon 110 MW (FirstEnergy ESA) and Moses Lake 18 MW owned.
- Management says interest 'far exceeds the capacity we have to lease,' that its challenge is 'choosing among' demand, and that multiple tenants want all three sites.
- A 2.2 GW power capacity pipeline gives long-dated option value; Scrubgrass alone is a 1 GW+ campus concept with a 750 MW load study and a 550 MW on-site generation plan.
- Zoning is complete at all three near-term sites, long-lead equipment is delivered at Moses Lake and Sharon, and final fiber contracts are being executed across all three.
What We’re Watching
- No HPC lease has been signed. The Q1 2026 target of three leases by year-end was not formally reconfirmed on the Q2 call, and management declined to update the timing.
- Panther Creek environmental permitting is 'taking a few months longer than originally anticipated,' against a Q1 confident 'mid- to late summer' framing. Management says power delivery, economics and commercial progress are unchanged.
- Scrubgrass remains in the energy application stage with no permits or proposals submitted; its update slipped from Q4 2025 framing to 'as early as December or January.'
- Sherbrooke's 96 MW HPC/AI PPA still needs provincial approval — the last gate — after local approvals were secured.
The transition is real but unmonetized. Keel has exited Bitcoin and Latin America, rebuilt liquidity, secured power and bought long-lead equipment — and yet has no signed lease and no HPC revenue. The demand signals are strong and echoed by competitors, but a demand story is not a contract. The thesis weakens if the lease window passes without a signature or if 2027 ready-for-service dates slip. The open question is whether management's stated patience — refusing to 'cap the upside of a generational asset in order to deliver a headline' — is disciplined pricing or a milestone slipping.
Earnings
Q2 2026 revenue was $30M, compared with $61M in Q2 2025, as the legacy Bitcoin mining business wound down. Gross margin was negative 285.1%. The operating loss was $141M, including $63M of accelerated depreciation tied to rig shutdowns at Panther Creek and Scrubgrass, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $24M. Keel sold 1,085 BTC for $75M between April 1 and Aug 7, ending the period with a 1,861 BTC treasury.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $30M | $37M | $78M | −60.9% |
| Gross margin | -285.1% | -71.1% | -7.0% | -27810bps |
| EBITDA | −$57M | −$25M | −$3M | +2076.9% |
| EPS | $-0.11 | $-0.24 | $-0.05 | +107.2% |
| Total liquidity | $819M as of Aug 7 | ~$533M as of May 8 | n/a | — |
We said we would exit Latin America and Bitcoin and become an American HPC and AI company. We did.— Ben Gagnon, CEO, 2026-08-10
Management tone: Management's tone stayed confident and shifted further toward the demand side. Between the Q1 and Q2 2026 calls the framing escalated from demand 'as strong as it was 90 days ago' to 'interest across the portfolio far exceeds the capacity we have to lease.' On the harder questions they were direct: they declined to formally reconfirm the three-lease target, confirmed the Moses Lake +10 MW option was given up, and disclosed that Panther Creek permitting is taking 'a few months longer.' They also named macro, not execution, as the biggest risk.
Management Guidance
Management gave no formal revenue, EPS or margin guidance. On the Q2 2026 call it said cash SG&A is tracking $100M for the year and that $819M of liquidity funds site development through lease signing and cash SG&A through 2028. It intends to liquidate the Bitcoin treasury in 2026 and models zero Bitcoin cash contribution. Panther Creek and Sharon ready-for-service dates remain end of 2027; Moses Lake slipped 'maybe a couple of months' but remains the first site expected online in 2027. Updates on the Pennsylvania expansion pipeline and Scrubgrass are expected 'as early as December or January.'
Trajectory
Revenue is falling as the legacy Bitcoin business is switched off: $78M in Q2 2025, $69M in Q3 2025, $15M in Q4 2025, $37M in Q1 2026 and $30M in Q2 2026. Margins are deeply negative — gross margin was -71.1% in Q1 2026 and -285.1% in Q2 2026 — driven by accelerated depreciation of retired mining rigs, infrastructure build-out and energy costs, not by the pricing of the legacy product. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $17M in Q1 and negative $24M in Q2, and TTM free cash flow is negative $358.1M. Management says it models no Bitcoin cash contribution and intends to liquidate the treasury in 2026, which points the financial inflection to 2027 and the first energized HPC megawatt.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $110M and EBITDA of negative $116M (-105.5%), and FY+2 revenue of $110M and EBITDA of negative $72M (-65%). The near-term anchor is a shrinking legacy Bitcoin business with no HPC revenue yet; management expects first HPC revenue in 2027 at the earliest. The model's five runs diverge widely — a 12% revenue spread at FY+1 and a 48% spread at FY+2 — reflecting how much depends on whether leases sign and sites energize.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $229M | $110M | $110M |
| YoY Growth | — | −52.0% | +0.0% |
| EBITDA | −$27M | −$116M | −$72M |
| EBITDA Margin | -11.8% | -105.5% | -65.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
Management gave no formal revenue, EPS or margin guidance. On the Q2 2026 call it said cash SG&A is tracking $100M for the year and that $819M of liquidity funds site development through lease signing and cash SG&A through 2028. It intends to liquidate the Bitcoin treasury in 2026 and models zero Bitcoin cash contribution. Panther Creek and Sharon ready-for-service dates remain end of 2027; Moses Lake slipped 'maybe a couple of months' but remains the first site expected online in 2027. Updates on the Pennsylvania expansion pipeline and Scrubgrass are expected 'as early as December or January.'
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A signed lease at Panther Creek, Sharon or Moses Lake. Management calls a lease the 'single most important inflection point' that converts development assets into contracted cash flow and unlocks project financing.
- Conversion of the ~2 GW Pennsylvania expansion pipeline into additional signed ESAs, which management expects to update on 'as early as December or January.'
- Provincial approval at Sherbrooke, converting three legacy Bitcoin PPAs into a single 96 MW HPC/AI PPA in a market management calls captive.
- Moses Lake commissioning and first HPC revenue, keeping it the first site online in 2027 and the first source of contracted cash flow.
- Panther Creek expansion beyond 500 MW, and the potential 60 MW ISA-to-firm-service conversion (400-430 MW gross) that management discussed in Q1 but did not mention in Q2.
- No lease is signed. The Q1 2026 target of three leases by year-end was not reconfirmed on the Q2 call, and the milestone is now undated.
- Ready-for-service dates slip out of 2027 at Panther Creek or Sharon. Management says as long as RFS stays 2027 it does not expect any impact on the commercial process.
- Scrubgrass fails to secure power — still in the energy application stage with no permits or proposals submitted.
- A lease is signed at non-investment-grade credit. The CFO says the cost of financing against a non-investment-grade partner is 'meaningfully higher' with less market depth.
- Macro and capital-market deterioration, which the CEO named as the biggest risk, slowing tenant decisions or raising the cost of project finance.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months turn on one event. Moses Lake go-vertical permitting is expected later in Q3 2026, with the site framed as the first to generate HPC revenue in 2027. Management pointed to an update 'as early as December or January' on converting the ~2 GW Pennsylvania pipeline into signed ESAs, alongside a Scrubgrass update and, by adjacency, the Sherbrooke provincial decision. Panther Creek and Sharon ready-for-service dates remain end of 2027, and the Bitcoin treasury is intended for liquidation in 2026.
- Q3 2026Moses Lake permitting — Go-vertical permitting expected to wrap 'later this quarter.'
- November 2026Q3 2026 earnings — Management said 'we'll see you all in November with more to show you.'
- December or JanuaryPA expansion update — Fulsome update on converting the ~2 GW pipeline into signed ESAs.
- December or JanuaryScrubgrass power update — Update on securing power; no permits or proposals submitted yet.
- End of 2026Bitcoin wind-down — Hash rate down toward ~5 EH/s; treasury intended for liquidation.
- End of 2027Panther Creek, Sharon RFS — Both sites' ready-for-service dates remain end of 2027.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $193M | $229M | $152M | +18.8% |
| Gross Margin | -18.0% | -19.2% | -82.8% | 123bps |
| EBITDA | $33M | −$27M | −$104M | -182.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.1% | -11.8% | -68.2% | 2,884bps |
| Net Income | −$54M | −$285M | −$430M | -427.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$530M | −$347M | −$358M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)-82.8%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-68.2%
- Net Margin (TTM)-283.1%
- ROIC-32.9%
- SBC / Revenue13.5%
The Company
Keel Infrastructure develops data centers and energy infrastructure and intends to lease capacity to HPC and AI customers. It was formerly Bitfarms, a Bitcoin miner, and its 2.2 GW power capacity pipeline includes owned and operated power generation, grid interconnections within the PJM market administered by PJM Interconnection, and approximately 100% renewable hydroelectric energy from Hydro-Québec and Grant County Public Utility District. Its bet is that deliverable power — not chips or capital — is the constraint on AI growth, and that sites already through interconnection can be leased to hyperscalers, cloud service providers, AI companies and enterprises under long-term contracts.
Keel reports two segments: HPC Infrastructure, its primary growth area, and Bitcoin Mining, a legacy business line managed for cash generation during the transition. It has redomiciled to the United States and rebranded, exited Latin America, and decommissioned all U.S. Bitcoin mining, with Canadian rigs remaining. Its near-term sites are Moses Lake, Washington (18 MW owned), Sharon, Pennsylvania (110 MW secured), and Panther Creek, Pennsylvania (350 MW secured), with a Sherbrooke, Québec consolidation and a Scrubgrass campus behind them. It works with Turner Construction, Corgan, T5 and Vertiv, and has named PPL, FirstEnergy and Hydro-Sherbrooke as utility partners.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Keel frames its advantage as scarce, deliverable power in constrained markets. Management says a new large-load interconnection in PJM, Quebec and Washington can take four to ten years and that Keel has already done that work. It describes intense competition: the 10-Q risk list cites 'intense competition from other pivoting Bitcoin mining companies and established data center operators, some of which may have greater resources and experience.' No HPC tenant has been named. The competitive question the record leaves open is whether Keel's sites and timelines are hard enough to replace that it can capture rising pricing in the window.
- IREN LimitedNamed in Keel's 10-K peer group; not discussed.
- Hut 8 Corp.Named in Keel's 10-K peer group; not discussed.
- Named in Keel's 10-K peer group; not discussed.
- Named in Keel's 10-K peer group; not discussed.
- HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.Named in Keel's 10-K peer group; HIVE names Keel, IREN and Hut 8 as competitors in its own filings.
Supply Chain
Keel's chain runs from power and equipment suppliers into data center construction, then out to HPC/AI tenants it has not yet named. Documented suppliers are utilities PPL, FirstEnergy and Hydro-Sherbrooke, plus equipment maker Vertiv; separate firms handle construction and design.
More on KEEL: Earnings recap