Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
KEEL develops, owns, and plans to operate data centers and energy infrastructure for HPC and AI workloads. It sells the physical layer the AI buildout needs: permitted, developable capacity near constrained power, to be leased to hyperscalers, cloud providers, AI companies, and enterprises. The company is the former Bitfarms Bitcoin mining business, now deliberately winding down mining to convert its assets into HPC campuses.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $199M |
| Revenue Growth | −4.8% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -24.9% |
| Net Debt | $234M |
| Earnings Beats | 2 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- $819 million liquidity as of August 7, 2026, supports site development and cash SG&A through 2028 per management.
- 2.2 GW power capacity pipeline, with PJM interconnections in Pennsylvania and approximately 100% renewable hydro capacity in Québec and Washington.
- Management says new large-load interconnections in PJM, Québec, and Washington can take 4 to 10 years, and KEEL has already done that long-lead work.
- Ganesh Aiyer joined as President of Keel in July 2026 after nearly seven years as Digital Realty's Chief Business Officer, leading commercial efforts.
- Pre-purchased Vertiv modules delivered to Moses Lake; transformers delivered at Sharon; fiber contracts across all three U.S. sites began execution.
What We’re Watching
- No signed HPC/AI lease and no HPC revenue; first HPC revenue is not expected until 2027.
- Q2 call did not explicitly reaffirm Q1's target of signing three leases by year-end 2026.
- Panther Creek environmental permits are taking a few months longer than anticipated; Moses Lake is delayed a couple of months.
- No company-specific CapEx guidance; management pointed analysts to industry rules of thumb.
The structural half of the thesis has strengthened: liquidity, equipment, permitting progress, and commercial leadership all moved forward. The commercial half remains unproven, and the Q2 call softened the year-end three-lease target. The open question is whether KEEL can convert stated demand into a first signed, financeable HPC lease.
Earnings
Q2 2026 revenue was $30 million, down from $61 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $24 million versus positive $7 million a year earlier, and the operating loss of $141 million included $63 million of accelerated depreciation tied to mining shutdowns at Panther Creek and Scrubgrass.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37M | $15M | $67M | −44.6% |
| Gross margin | -71.1% | -65.0% | -0.8% | -7030bps |
| EBITDA | −$25M | −$26M | −$3M | +840.7% |
| EPS | $-0.24 | $-0.25 | $-0.07 | +236.2% |
| Total liquidity | $819M (Aug 7, 2026) | $533M (May 8, 2026) | n/a | — |
A lease is not a trophy for a press release, it is a 15-year commitment of infrastructure, credit and trust.— Benjamin Gagnon, CEO, August 10, 2026
Management tone: Management shifted from Q1's transformational, target-focused posture to a more patient, negotiation-focused tone on the Q2 call. It did not explicitly reaffirm the year-end three-lease target, emphasized lease economics over speed, and described itself as "incredibly optimistic" while declining to name tenants or detail negotiation status.
Management Guidance
No formal revenue, margin, or EPS guidance was issued. Management's project-level guidance includes cash SG&A tracking about $100 million for 2026, Bitcoin hashrate declining from about 14 EH/s to roughly 5 EH/s by end-2026, and first HPC revenue in 2027. It did not explicitly reaffirm the Q1 target of signing three leases by year-end 2026.
Trajectory
Revenue is decelerating and margins are compressing through the transition. Q1 FY2026 revenue was $37.0 million with gross margin of -71.1% and EBITDA margin of -68.8%; the Q2 2026 call showed revenue of $30 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $24 million. The weakness reflects the deliberate wind-down of Bitcoin mining and rising depreciation, infrastructure, and energy costs, not the HPC segment, which remains pre-revenue.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $122 million and EBITDA of -$109 million (-89% margin). FY+2 revenue is projected at $45 million with EBITDA of -$102 million (-227% margin). The near-term projection is anchored by no signed HPC leases and a shrinking Bitcoin base; FY+2 remains deeply negative because the model does not yet reflect converted HPC revenue.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $229M | $122M | $45M |
| YoY Growth | — | −46.8% | −63.1% |
| EBITDA | −$27M | −$109M | −$102M |
| EBITDA Margin | -11.8% | -89.0% | -227.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
No formal revenue, margin, or EPS guidance was issued. Management's project-level guidance includes cash SG&A tracking about $100 million for 2026, Bitcoin hashrate declining from about 14 EH/s to roughly 5 EH/s by end-2026, and first HPC revenue in 2027. It did not explicitly reaffirm the Q1 target of signing three leases by year-end 2026.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A signed HPC lease at any near-term site, especially with investment-grade credit support, converts the development pipeline into contracted cash flow.
- A portfolio-level deal materializes; management said multiple tenants want all three sites.
- The roughly 2 GW Pennsylvania expansion applications convert into secured ESAs, extending the runway beyond the near-term sites.
- The 96 MW Sherbrooke project receives provincial approval, consolidating three legacy Bitcoin PPAs into an HPC/AI PPA.
- Moses Lake is energized and generates first HPC revenue in 2027 as planned.
- No lease is signed in 2026; the Q2 call did not explicitly reaffirm the year-end three-lease target.
- Panther Creek or Moses Lake permitting slips further, pushing delivery beyond the 2027 ready-for-service window.
- The first lease carries non-investment-grade credit support or modified gross terms, reducing financing efficiency and margin predictability.
- Legacy Bitcoin losses widen while cash SG&A runs near $100 million, consuming liquidity before HPC revenue begins.
- Expansion capacity remains unsecured if regulatory or utility changes interfere with the 2 GW Pennsylvania applications.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the watch items are permit completions, lease conversion, and expansion optionality. Moses Lake's go-vertical permit is expected later in Q3 2026, and a Pennsylvania expansion and Scrubgrass load-study update is expected as early as December 2026 or January 2027. First HPC revenue remains targeted for 2027, led by Moses Lake.
- August 20, 2026Panther Creek DEP meeting — Described by management as routine; final environmental permits remain the gating item.
- Later Q3 2026Moses Lake go-vertical permitting — Tests whether the first HPC site keeps its 2027 path.
- December 2026 / January 2027Pennsylvania expansion update — Covers roughly 2 GW applications and the 750 MW Scrubgrass load study.
- 2027First HPC revenue — Moses Lake expected first energized and revenue-generating HPC data center.
- No date statedSherbrooke provincial approval — Only remaining approval for the 96 MW HPC/AI consolidation.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $193M | $229M | $199M | +18.8% |
| Gross Margin | -18.0% | -19.2% | -22.4% | 123bps |
| EBITDA | $33M | −$27M | −$121M | -182.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.1% | -11.8% | -24.9% | 2,884bps |
| Net Income | −$54M | −$285M | −$394M | -427.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$530M | −$327M | −$1.4B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)-22.4%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-24.9%
- Net Margin (TTM)-197.6%
- ROIC-20.6%
- SBC / Revenue7.2%
The Company
KEEL develops, owns, and plans to operate data centers and energy infrastructure for HPC and AI workloads. It is the former Bitfarms Bitcoin mining business, redomiciled to the United States effective April 1, 2026, and rebranded as Keel Infrastructure Corp. The company's pitch is near-term, permitted power in constrained North American markets; management says new large-load interconnections in PJM, Québec, and Washington can take 4 to 10 years, and KEEL says it has already done that work at its sites.
The 10-K describes two segments: HPC Infrastructure, the intended growth business, and Bitcoin Mining, the legacy business managed for cash while assets are redeployed. KEEL relies on third-party utilities and construction partners including PPL, FirstEnergy, Hydro-Sherbrooke, Grant County PUD, Turner Construction, Corgan, and T5, and pre-purchased Vertiv modular equipment at Moses Lake. It sold its final Latin American site, Paso Pe, on April 21, 2026.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
KEEL competes with other Bitcoin miners converting to HPC and with established data center operators. Management's stated edge is time-to-power: it says it has already completed interconnection and permitting work that would otherwise take 4 to 10 years. The 10-K identifies competitive risks from pivoting Bitcoin miners and established data center operators.
- Named in 10-K self-constructed peer group.
- Hut 8Named in 10-K self-constructed peer group.
- Named in 10-K self-constructed peer group.
- Named in 10-K self-constructed peer group.
- IRENNamed in 10-K self-constructed peer group.
Supply Chain
KEEL sits between electric utilities and construction/equipment suppliers upstream, and hyperscale/AI tenants downstream. Its product is powered, permitted data center capacity, not compute itself.
More on KEEL: Earnings recap