HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
HIVE Digital Technologies runs data centers. It mines Bitcoin at sites in Canada, Sweden and Paraguay, and through its BUZZ HPC subsidiary it rents NVIDIA GPU compute and powered, cooled data-center space to AI customers. Management describes the model as dual engine: the mining business generates cash, and management says all growth capital goes to HPC and AI. That makes HIVE a small but genuine participant in the AI build-out — a compute landlord and GPU-cloud operator whose assets are power, land and data-center shells.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $329M |
| Revenue Growth | +156.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 1.1% |
| Net Debt | $144M |
| Earnings Beats | 3 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Contracted GPU-cloud ARR reached $180M, up roughly 5x in one quarter, against ~$35M active today.
- HIVE signed roughly $600M of GPU-cloud total contract value this year, including a 5-year, $350M TCV deal at $70M ARR and a 3-year Cohere contract at $225M TCV.
- Cash rose to $208M at June 30, 2026 from ~$23M at March 31, after ~$245M of 0% coupon convertible notes.
- The new GB300 cluster is stated at a 75%–80% EBITDA margin against mining at 36%–40%, so a mix shift toward HPC could raise the consolidated margin level.
- Execution this cycle: hashrate rose from 6 EH/s to 25 EH/s, and the B200 cluster that went live in May lifted HPC revenue off a four-quarter plateau near $5M.
What We’re Watching
- Q4 2026: the 2,088 GB300s at Bell Merritt and the Cohere GB200 cluster must be delivered and deployed. The backlog-to-revenue bridge is one quarter wide.
- By end-September 2026: the Boden colo lease goes definitive. The disclosed term and total contract value matter as much as the signature.
- The Swedish VAT dispute: an $84.7M non-cash provision management says it will not pay and is appealing. Any cash outcome changes the capital plan.
- Both Paraguay power agreements — under 296.7 MW of the 384.6 MW of utilized capacity — expire December 31, 2027.
The thesis is strengthening on paper and unproven in the reported numbers. Contracted GPU-cloud ARR reached $180M and cash rose to $208M from ~$23M, but only ~$35M of that ARR is live, and the mix is still about 90% Bitcoin mining. The sharpest open question is concentration: roughly $575M of the ~$600M of GPU-cloud TCV signed this year sits in two deals, one with an unnamed counterparty and one routed through Bell, which is also a supplier. Whether that backlog converts into reported revenue on schedule is the case.
Earnings
HIVE reported $77.1M of revenue in FY2027 Q1, the quarter ended June 30, 2026, up from $45.6M in the prior-year quarter. EBITDA was $10.0M, or 13.0% of revenue. The GAAP net loss of $139.3M was driven by non-cash items, including an $84.7M Swedish VAT provision. Gross operating margin, the company's own non-GAAP measure that excludes depreciation, was $24.2M, or 31% of revenue, down from 35% a year earlier even as margin dollars rose.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 | Q4 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $77M | $72M | $46M | +69.1% |
| Gross margin | -37.3% | -159.6% | 34.7% | -7200bps |
| EBITDA | $10M | −$109M | $57M | −82.5% |
| EPS | $-0.52 | $-0.34 | $0.18 | −388.2% |
| HPC/AI revenue | $7.1M | $4.6M | $4.8M | +48% |
| Contracted GPU cloud ARR | $180M | n/a | n/a | — |
Management tone: Management's tone on the FY2027 Q1 call was confident and forward-leaning, with a sharp step-up in the HPC narrative versus the prior call. Contracted GPU revenue, cash and the HPC ARR target all moved up. Management volunteered the non-cash composition of the GAAP loss and the legacy-GPU margin drag before being asked, and answered the Swedish tax question directly. Disclosure on the largest forward project, the GTA Gigafactory, stayed deliberately limited.
Management Guidance
HIVE issues no formal annual guidance; the 10-K and press release contain no forward numbers, so all targets are spoken. On the FY2027 Q1 call, management reaffirmed a ~$200M GPU-cloud ARR target by Q4 2026 from $180M contracted, and said roughly 500 B300s in Quebec would add ~$20M of ARR. It said a definitive Boden colo lease by end-September 2026 would lift contracted HPC ARR to ~$225M, and raised the two-year AI/HPC ARR target to ~$700M — $200M GPU cloud plus ~$500M colocation. Management also projected HPC at ~40% of revenue within the next few months.
Trajectory
Revenue is growing year over year but is choppy quarter to quarter, because roughly 90% of it comes from Bitcoin mining. Across the spine's last five quarters, revenue ran $45.6M, $87.3M, $93.1M, $71.8M and $77.1M; the Q4 FY2026 dip tracks what management called the lowest mining economics of that period. The GAAP bottom line stays deeply negative, with the net loss widening to $139.3M in Q1 FY2027 on non-cash charges. The line that matters forward is HPC, which sat near $5M a quarter for four quarters and then reached $7.1M — the first evidence in this record of a signed GPU contract showing up in reported revenue.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $383.2M with EBITDA of $78M, a 20.35% margin. For FY+2 it projects revenue of $566.5M and EBITDA of $186M, a 32.8% margin. The near-term figure rests on converting the contracted GPU-cloud backlog into reported HPC revenue as the Q4 2026 clusters deploy. The FY+2 step-up depends on the HPC mix continuing to rise and on the colocation pipeline — Boden, Toronto, Iguazú and the Gigafactory — coming online at the stated economics.
| Metric | FY2026 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $298M | $383M | $566M |
| YoY Growth | — | +28.7% | +47.8% |
| EBITDA | $51M | $78M | $186M |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.0% | 20.4% | 32.8% |
Projections are the median of 4 independent model runs.
HIVE issues no formal annual guidance; the 10-K and press release contain no forward numbers, so all targets are spoken. On the FY2027 Q1 call, management reaffirmed a ~$200M GPU-cloud ARR target by Q4 2026 from $180M contracted, and said roughly 500 B300s in Quebec would add ~$20M of ARR. It said a definitive Boden colo lease by end-September 2026 would lift contracted HPC ARR to ~$225M, and raised the two-year AI/HPC ARR target to ~$700M — $200M GPU cloud plus ~$500M colocation. Management also projected HPC at ~40% of revenue within the next few months.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- The 2,088 GB300s and the Cohere GB200 cluster deploy in Q4 2026 and begin producing HPC revenue, moving active ARR toward the $180M contracted level.
- The Boden colo lease goes definitive on a long term at the stated ~$150/kW/month, lifting contracted HPC ARR to ~$225M.
- HPC's share of revenue reaches the projected ~40% and, because HPC carries a stated 75%–80% EBITDA margin against mining's 36%–40%, the consolidated margin level rises.
- A corporate or investment-grade project bond is closed against a signed offtake, moving the cost of capital toward the cohort HIVE benchmarks against.
- The Swedish VAT dispute resolves without a cash payment.
- The Q4 2026 GPU deployments slip, pushing the mix-shift projection right by at least a quarter and turning contracted ARR into aspiration.
- A counterparty event inside the two large GPU contracts — one unnamed, one routed through Bell — removes most of the contracted HPC backlog.
- Hash price falls below the ~$30/PH/day floor management reads, pressuring the mining cash engine that funds the build.
- The Swedish VAT appeal fails and requires cash, changing the capital plan.
- Dilution or further leverage outpaces revenue and EBITDA growth.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the central question is whether HIVE converts contracts into reported revenue. The 2,088 GB300s go to Bell Merritt and the Cohere GB200 cluster deploys in Q4 2026; the Boden colo lease is targeted for signature by end-September 2026; the Iguazú substation is targeted for energization by the end of calendar 2026; and management targets ~$200M GPU-cloud ARR by Q4 and Russell 2000 qualification by year-end. Further out, the GTA Gigafactory is scheduled to energize at the end of 2027, with compute live in early 2028.
- By end-September 2026Boden colo definitive — Signature would lift contracted HPC ARR to ~$225M.
- Q4 2026GB300 and GB200 deploy — 2,088 GB300s at Bell Merritt plus the Cohere GB200 cluster.
- Q4 2026$200M GPU-cloud ARR — Target from $180M contracted; ~500 B300s in Quebec add ~$20M.
- End of calendar 2026Iguazú substation energized — 200 MW substation; two 80 MVA transformers installed.
- By end of 2026Russell 2000 qualification — Index inclusion targeted by management.
- End-2027 / early-2028Gigafactory energize / live — Energize end-2027, compute live early-2028.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $115M | $298M | $329M | +158.5% |
| Gross Margin | 19.9% | -21.4% | -32.5% | 4,138bps |
| EBITDA | $39M | $51M | $4M | +28.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 34.1% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 1,716bps |
| Net Income | −$25M | −$148M | −$323M | -503.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$159M | −$116M | −$125M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)-32.5%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)1.1%
- Net Margin (TTM)-98.0%
- ROIC-27.9%
- FCF Conversion-3560.0%
- SBC / Revenue8.1%
The Company
HIVE Digital Technologies describes itself as a sustainable-energy-focused digital infrastructure company. It runs two revenue streams: a Bitcoin mining business that turns cheap, mostly hydroelectric power into hashrate, and an HPC business, run through its BUZZ HPC subsidiary, that rents NVIDIA GPU compute and powered data-center space to AI customers. Mining is the cash engine; AI is the growth story. The company's own framing is that it converts energy access into compute capacity, moving from a hashrate provider toward a vertically integrated, capital-efficient AI infrastructure platform.
The company owns or leases 12 named facilities across Canada, Sweden and Paraguay, with 860 MW of global footprint and 440 MW active. The two Paraguay sites, Yguazú at 200 MW and Valenzuela at 107 MW, carry most of the utilized capacity and sit near the Itaipu hydro dam. Management allocates no growth capex to Bitcoin mining and directs all growth capital to HPC. The AI build rests on a mix of its own conversions — Boden, Toronto, New Brunswick and a 25-acre Greater Toronto Area site it calls the Gigafactory — and a low-CapEx arrangement placing GPU clusters inside Bell Canada's AI Fabric data centers.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
HIVE's 10-K names two competitive sets. In ASIC and Bitcoin mining it lists Bitdeer Technologies Group, Keel Infrastructure Corp., Cipher Digital, CleanSpark, Core Scientific, Hut 8, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms and TeraWulf. In HPC and AI it cites established data-center operators and infrastructure providers with significant capital resources, brand recognition and technical expertise — such as Equinix, Crusoe Cloud, Applied Digital and CoreWeave — plus Keel, IREN and Hut 8. The evidence pack reads HIVE as replaceable in colocation, where the product is powered shell and the differentiator is price, power cost and location, and less replaceable in the Canadian sovereign GPU cloud niche, where it has an exclusive Bell AI Fabric partnership.
- CoreWeaveNamed in the 10-K's HPC/AI set of established data-center operators with significant capital resources and technical expertise.
- EquinixNamed in the same 10-K HPC/AI competitive set.
- Applied DigitalNamed in the same 10-K HPC/AI competitive set.
- Named in both the 10-K's ASIC/Bitcoin mining set and its HPC/AI set.
- IREN Ltd.Named in the 10-K's HPC/AI competitive set; not discussed further.
Supply Chain
HIVE buys silicon and builds or leases the shell around it. The 10-K names its ASIC and GPU suppliers and its power providers. No supplied neighbor transcript mentions HIVE by name, so the read-through from peers is inferred rather than stated.
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