The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Manitowoc makes and rents cranes—tower cranes, mobile hydraulic cranes, and lattice-boom crawler cranes—plus parts and services. In the AI infrastructure build-out, these machines are the lifting equipment on semiconductor fabrication and data-center construction sites; the company also services cranes already deployed there. It is an indirect, pick-and-shovel exposure, not an AI-native vendor.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.3B |
| Revenue Growth | +5.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 5.3% |
| Net Debt | $421M |
| Earnings Beats | 0 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Q2 orders rose 56.1% year over year to $708.7 million, and backlog ended at $1,050.1 million.
- Non-new machine sales reached a trailing-twelve-month record of roughly $706 million, supporting the Cranes+50 aftermarket strategy.
- Net leverage fell to approximately 2.6x, below management’s 3x target, and S&P upgraded the corporate credit rating from B to B+.
- Roughly 100 Potain tower cranes were operating at the SK Hynix and Samsung semiconductor projects in South Korea, per management.
- U.S. anti-dumping tariffs of 12% to 20% on Japanese crawler cranes may improve the U.S. competitive environment.
What We’re Watching
- Customs prior disclosure on Section 232 tariff methodology remains unresolved.
- Q2 order strength included dealer replenishment; management says dealer inventory is low, but the mix of restocking versus end-user demand is not disclosed.
- Middle East shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stopped, and management says prolonged instability could affect customer investment decisions.
- Several previously flagged items went quiet: the Australian power transmission project and planned service locations in Portugal, Mexico, Chile, and France.
The order-and-backlog recovery is strengthening, and the balance-sheet repair is now in hand. The open question is how much of the 2026 EBITDA raise rests on $16 million of net tariff refund benefit and how much is repeatable operating performance.
Earnings
Manitowoc reported Q2 2026 net sales of $594.9 million, up 10.3% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $49 million, up 85.9% from the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 330 basis points to over 8%, and orders were $708.7 million, up 56.1% year over year.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $495M | $677M | $471M | +5.0% |
| Gross margin | 19.1% | 16.7% | 19.1% | +0bps |
| EBITDA | $19M | $40M | $22M | −13.4% |
| EPS | $-0.17 | $0.19 | $-0.18 | −5.8% |
| Orders | $708.7M | $645.7M | n/a | +56.1% YoY |
| Backlog | $1,050.1M | $939.9M | n/a | +$321M YoY |
We are updating our guidance and expect full-year net sales of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $150 million to $170 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.80 to $1.20, and free cash flow of $50 million to $70 million.— Brian Regan, Chief Financial Officer, August 7, 2026
Management tone: Management’s tone shifted from cautious optimism to an explicit earnings inflection: after describing “light at the end of the tunnel” in Q1, the Q2 call framed core financial performance as among the strongest quarters in recent years. The shift was supported by reported orders, backlog, and margin expansion rather than only qualitative optimism.
Management Guidance
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to net sales of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $150 million to $170 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80 to $1.20, and free cash flow of $50 million to $70 million. The EBITDA bridge moved the midpoint from $137.5 million to $160 million, including a $16 million net tariff refund benefit partially offset by higher variable compensation; the risk from the conflict in Iran is considered within the range.
Trajectory
Revenue is improving, driven by orders and backlog, while local nonresidential construction remains mixed. Q2 2026 net sales rose 10.3% year over year to $594.9 million, after Q1 2026 net sales of $494.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled in Q2 to $49 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 330 basis points to over 8% on operating leverage, SG&A discipline, and a net tariff refund benefit.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $2,310 million and EBITDA of $141 million (6.1% margin), rising to FY+2 revenue of $2,550 million and EBITDA of $181 million (7.1% margin). The FY+1 path is anchored by the $1,050.1 million backlog and roughly $750 million expected to ship in 2026; FY+2 reflects continued growth in non-new machine sales and management’s expectation that data-center and semiconductor demand continues well into 2027.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.5B |
| YoY Growth | — | +3.1% | +10.4% |
| EBITDA | $124M | $141M | $181M |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 12.5% above analyst consensus.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to net sales of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $150 million to $170 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80 to $1.20, and free cash flow of $50 million to $70 million. The EBITDA bridge moved the midpoint from $137.5 million to $160 million, including a $16 million net tariff refund benefit partially offset by higher variable compensation; the risk from the conflict in Iran is considered within the range.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Backlog continues to build as book-to-bill stays at or above 1.2x and July orders exceeded $200 million in a normally slow month.
- Non-new machine sales keep compounding beyond the TTM record of roughly $706 million.
- Data-center and semiconductor demand stays strong into 2027 and converts into machinery orders.
- Middle East pent-up demand converts into equipment orders if regional uncertainty subsides.
- Oil and gas or mining begins contributing meaningfully to orders, adding a demand source that has not yet been meaningful.
- The Q2 order surge proves to be mostly dealer restocking, and subsequent order rates fall back.
- Data-center or semiconductor capex slows; MTW does not disclose AI-linked revenue, so the exposure cannot be quantified.
- Customs prior disclosure results in a material payment or changes future Section 232 tariff methodology.
- Middle East instability delays orders and deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Service expansion costs run ahead of profitable revenue as new centers and the ServiceMax work-order module remain unproven.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months hinge on converting the $1,050.1 million backlog, with roughly $750 million expected to ship in 2026, while management expects data-center and semiconductor demand to continue well into 2027. Near-term signposts are Q3 order commentary, about $4 million of incremental IEEPA tariff benefit in Q3, and whether Middle East pent-up demand converts into orders.
- September 2026September order cadence — Tests Q4 order momentum after July exceeded $200 million.
- Q3 2026About $4M tariff benefit — Expected incremental IEEPA tariff benefit in Q3.
- 2026Backlog shipment conversion — Roughly $750 million of Q2 backlog expected to ship in 2026.
- 2026Self-erecting tower crane EN transition — Build schedule sold out for the remainder of 2026 on affected models.
- 2027Data-center and semiconductor demand — Management expects strong demand to continue well into 2027.
- 2027800-ton all-terrain crane field units — First field units targeted for 2027.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.3B | +2.9% |
| Gross Margin | 17.3% | 18.2% | 18.1% | +98bps |
| EBITDA | $115M | $124M | $633M | +8.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | +26bps |
| Net Income | $56M | $7M | $8M | -87.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3M | −$15M | −$599M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)18.1%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)5.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)0.3%
- ROIC4.2%
- FCF Conversion1.5%
- SBC / Revenue0.4%
The Company
Manitowoc designs, manufactures, markets, rents, and sells cranes and lifting accessories under seven brands: Grove, Manitowoc, National Crane, Potain, Shuttlelift, Upfits by Aspen Equipment, and MGX Equipment Services. Its principal product families are lattice-boom crawler cranes, tower cranes, mobile hydraulic cranes, and non-new machine sales—parts, service, rebuilds, accessories, rentals, and used equipment. The 10-K says the company is “transforming from a product-focused company into a customer-centric business focused on providing a full suite of lifting services to grow our aftermarket presence.”
It operates three reportable segments—Americas, Europe and Africa (EURAF), and Middle East and Asia Pacific (MEAP)—with manufacturing facilities in China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Pennsylvania, and Portugal. The company runs global manufacturing plus a growing aftermarket and service network, including Shady Grove rapid response and East Coast boom refurbishment shops opened in Q2 2026 and announced service expansion in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 10-K lists primary competitors across tower cranes and mobile telescopic cranes, including Liebherr, Terex, Sany, XCMG, Liugong, Zoomlion, and Tadano. In Q2 2026, management noted U.S. trade authorities applied anti-dumping tariffs of 12% to 20% on Japanese crawler cranes, describing the action as leveling the playing field.
- LiebherrNamed in 10-K as a primary competitor in tower cranes and mobile telescopic cranes.
- TerexNamed in 10-K as a primary competitor in mobile telescopic cranes and tower cranes through Raimondi/Terex.
- SanyNamed in 10-K as a primary competitor in tower cranes and mobile telescopic cranes.
- XCMGNamed in 10-K as a primary competitor in tower cranes and mobile telescopic cranes.
- ZoomlionNamed in 10-K as a primary competitor in tower cranes and mobile telescopic cranes via Zoomlion/Wilbert.
Supply Chain
Manitowoc sits between suppliers of steel and hydraulic components and construction-project end users, including semiconductor fabs and data-center builders. Direct 10-K or earnings-call evidence carries more weight than generated relationships, so most supplier and customer links are inferred.
More on MTW: Earnings recap