ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
ReNew Energy Global Plc generates utility-scale renewable power—wind, solar, hydro—and manufactures solar modules and cells. Its commercial and industrial segment supplies electricity to technology companies and data centres, providing the clean power that supports AI infrastructure growth in India. The company’s integrated manufacturing, from modules to planned wafer production, gives it a regulatory advantage under India’s domestic content mandates.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth | +29.9% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 64.0% |
| Net Debt | $7.4B |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Delivered record FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of INR 98.5 billion, exceeding the top-end of guidance and growing ~25% year-on-year.
- Commissioned 2.4 GW of new capacity in FY2026, the highest annual addition, with a total committed portfolio of 20.2 GW providing multi-year visibility.
- Manufacturing contributed 15% of group EBITDA and is self-funding a 4 GW cell expansion and a 6.5 GW ingot-wafer plant, aligned with ALMM domestic content mandates.
- Capital recycling engine raised $375 million in FY2026 via subsidiary stake sales and project divestments, funding growth without parent equity dilution.
- C&I segment grew 7x in five years to 2.7 GW, with ~50% of contracted capacity serving hyperscalers and data centre demand.
What We’re Watching
- Grid curtailment in Rajasthan is expected to pressure generation in H1 FY2027; persistent curtailment would reduce plant load factors and revenue.
- DSM regulation proposal could cost INR 0.5 billion in FY2027 if not relaxed; management expects a relaxation but outcome is uncertain.
- Manufacturing EBITDA guided to INR 10–12 billion for FY2027, down from INR 14.8 billion, reflecting margin normalisation before new cell output ramps.
- The 6.5 GW ingot-wafer plant is targeted for June 2028 commissioning, but funding relies on manufacturing cash flows and external fundraising, not parent equity.
The thesis strengthened in FY2026 with record earnings, capital recycling, and the pivot to solar+BESS, but near-term manufacturing margin pressure and grid curtailment test the FY2027 outlook. The open question is whether the cell and wafer ramp can meet ALMM timelines and restore manufacturing margins on schedule.
Earnings Beat
Revenue of $345.5 million, gross margin of 48.9%, and EBITDA of $188.7 million, with net income of $8.4 million.
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $346M | $282M | $340M | +1.8% |
| Gross margin | 48.9% | 56.6% | 81.5% | -3260bps |
| EBITDA | $189M | $176M | $231M | −18.4% |
| EPS | $0.02 | $-0.01 | $0.08 | −69.9% |
For fiscal 2027, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of INR 103 billion to INR 109 billion— Kailash Vaswani, May 18, 2026
Management tone: Management opened the call with a confident framing of energy security as a structural tailwind and then directly addressed near-term headwinds—grid curtailment, DSM regulation, and manufacturing margin compression—with transparency and specific estimates.
Management Guidance
For FY2027, management guided adjusted EBITDA to INR 103–109 billion, manufacturing EBITDA to INR 10–12 billion, construction of 1.6–2.4 GW, cash flow to equity of INR 18–22 billion, and asset recycling of INR 1.2 billion. The CFO characterized the guide as a 17% increase over the prior year’s guidance range, with manufacturing margins moderating before new cell capacity contributes.
Trajectory
Full-year total income rose approximately 40% in FY2026, driven by a record 2.4 GW of new capacity. However, gross margin declined from 81.5% in Q4 FY2025 to 48.9% in Q4 FY2026, reflecting the integration of lower-margin manufacturing revenue and grid-related output constraints. Adjusted EBITDA grew ~25% in INR terms, and net debt to EBITDA improved by 1.1x year-on-year, supported by capital recycling.
The Model
The model projects FY2027 revenue of $1,613 million and EBITDA of $1,140 million (70.7% margin). For FY2028, the model forecasts revenue of $1,917 million and EBITDA of $1,302 million (67.9% margin). Near-term projections are anchored by the large committed portfolio and the first full contribution from the 2.4 GW commissioned in FY2026; FY2028 benefits from the ramp of the 4 GW cell facility. The ingot-wafer plant is expected to commission in June 2028, with EBITDA contribution beginning in FY2029.
| Metric | FY2026 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| YoY Growth | — | +8.2% | +18.8% |
| EBITDA | $954M | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| EBITDA Margin | 64.0% | 70.7% | 67.9% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 2.8% below analyst consensus.
For FY2027, management guided adjusted EBITDA to INR 103–109 billion, manufacturing EBITDA to INR 10–12 billion, construction of 1.6–2.4 GW, cash flow to equity of INR 18–22 billion, and asset recycling of INR 1.2 billion. The CFO characterized the guide as a 17% increase over the prior year’s guidance range, with manufacturing margins moderating before new cell capacity contributes.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- The 4 GW cell facility reaches commercial production on schedule, lifting manufacturing EBITDA above FY2026 levels in FY2028.
- The 6.5 GW ingot-wafer plant commissions by June 2028, capturing ALMM-3 domestic demand and driving group EBITDA beyond current projections.
- C&I hyperscaler power purchase agreements accelerate, with data centre demand making the segment a larger share of earnings.
- Grid curtailment eases as transmission capacity expands, boosting generation output and plant utilization.
- Grid curtailment in Rajasthan persists beyond H1 FY2027, depressing generation and EBITDA.
- The DSM regulation is not relaxed, imposing sustained penalty costs that reduce cash flow.
- The 4 GW cell facility faces yield issues or delays, pushing manufacturing EBITDA recovery into FY2029 or later.
- ALMM-3 is postponed or weakened, leaving the ingot-wafer plant underutilized and its returns diminished.
Looking Ahead
Over the next twelve months, ReNew will execute on 1.6–2.4 GW of construction, navigate grid curtailment and the new ALMM-2 domestic cell mandate, and refinance $1 billion in maturing debt. The critical milestone is the start of trial cell production at the 4 GW facility by the end of FY2027.
- June 2026ALMM-2 cell mandate effective — Tests domestic cell demand and ReNew’s ability to sell captive output.
- H1 FY2027Debt refinancing ($1B) — $400m already committed; tests interest cost reduction.
- H1 FY2027Grid curtailment outcome — Management expects easing; persistent curtailment would pressure earnings.
- FY2027 quarterlyConstruction progress — Track 1.6–2.4 GW of new renewable capacity execution.
- 2H FY20274 GW cell trial production — Start of commercial output validates manufacturing scale-up.
- By FY2028DSO days below 50 — AP receivables resolution expected to improve working capital.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.5B | +29.9% |
| Gross Margin | 91.3% | 68.2% | 70.5% | 2,308bps |
| EBITDA | $859M | $954M | $1.8B | +11.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 74.9% | 64.0% | 64.0% | 1,089bps |
| Net Income | $46M | $119M | $119M | +158.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$313M | −$277M | −$590M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)70.5%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)64.0%
- Net Margin (TTM)8.0%
- ROIC5.9%
- FCF Conversion-29.0%
- SBC / Revenue0.6%
The Company
ReNew is one of India’s largest renewable energy platforms, generating utility‑scale solar, wind, and hydro power while manufacturing solar modules and cells. Its 12.8 GW operating portfolio and 20.2 GW committed pipeline make it a key supplier of clean electricity to the grid and to commercial customers, including technology firms expanding data centre capacity for AI workloads.
The company operates a vertically integrated model with module and cell factories in Jaipur and Dholera that supply its own projects and third‑party developers. It is shifting from a wind‑heavy generation base toward solar‑plus‑battery storage to improve capital efficiency. Manufacturing contributed 15% of group EBITDA in FY2026 and is funding further expansion into 4 GW of additional cells and 6.5 GW of ingots and wafers.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
ReNew competes with large Indian developers such as Adani Green, Greenko, Tata Power, and NTPC Green Energy, but its captive cell manufacturing and planned wafer plant give it a supply‑chain advantage under ALMM mandates that peers without domestic production lack. Its scale and 20 GW committed portfolio also provide procurement and financing benefits.
- Adani Green Energy Ltd.Named in filings; not discussed.
- Greenko GroupNamed in filings; not discussed.
- Tata PowerNamed in filings; not discussed.
- NTPC Green Energy (NGEL)Named in filings; not discussed.
Supply Chain
ReNew sits between upstream equipment makers and downstream power buyers. Its own module and cell factories reduce solar panel import dependence, while its generation fleet sells power to state utilities and, increasingly, to technology firms for data centres.