ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
ReNew is an Indian renewable power producer — wind, solar and hydro plants plus battery storage, alongside solar module and cell factories. It sells electricity under long-term power purchase agreements, mostly to state utilities and increasingly to corporate buyers. The AI connection is on the customer side: hyperscalers and large technology companies buy renewable power for their data centres, and ReNew serves them through its commercial and industrial platform. The company also builds storage-backed supply, which matters because data centres need round-the-clock power rather than daytime-only solar.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth | +13.6% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 62.5% |
| Net Debt | $7.6B |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Operating capacity reached 13.5 GW at June 30, 2026, up 22% net and 26% adjusted for asset sales year-on-year.
- Committed portfolio of ~20.5 GW including 1.7 GW of battery storage; pipeline of ~27 GW, more than 2.5x its August 2021 listing level.
- FY26 adjusted EBITDA of INR 98.5B exceeded the top end of guidance; profit after tax of INR 10.4B was up 2.3x, the third consecutive profitable year.
- Management disclosed run-rate adjusted EBITDA of INR 134B–140B and run-rate cash flow to equity of INR 32B–36B for the fully constructed ~20.5 GW portfolio, excluding manufacturing.
- Amazon, Microsoft and Google collectively account for around half of contracted offtake in the C&I business.
What We’re Watching
- Solar plant load factor fell about 220 bps year-on-year in Q1 FY27, split roughly half curtailment and half weather; there is no compensation mechanism for non-transmission curtailment.
- Manufacturing margin was ~34% in Q1 FY27 against ~40% a year earlier, and management chose to hold FY27 guidance rather than raise it.
- Net debt to trailing adjusted EBITDA for operating projects was 5.7x against a longer-term target of about 5.5x, with $1B of USD bonds maturing in H1 2027.
- The ~1 GW asset sale signed in August 2026 has not closed, and guidance includes it; management says it will adjust the run-rate figures on closing.
The operating case looks intact and still building: capacity, commissioning and profitability have all moved in the right direction, and India's demand backdrop is strong. FY26 adjusted EBITDA came in above the top end of guidance, and Q1 FY27 kept the construction plan on track. The uncertainties now are execution rather than demand — whether grid curtailment persists without compensation, whether manufacturing margins stabilise, and whether the proposed take-private completes. The open question is the take-private, which currently dominates how the equity is viewed.
Earnings Beat
ReNew's June 2026 quarter (Q1 FY2027) reported revenue of $473.8M with a 55.9% gross margin, EBITDA of $296.7M at a 62.6% margin, and net income of $63.3M. Operating capacity reached 13.5 GW, up 22% net year-on-year, and management reiterated its full-year FY27 guidance rather than raising it despite a strong manufacturing quarter.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 | Q4 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $474M | $346M | $455M | +4.1% |
| Gross margin | 55.9% | 48.9% | 82.8% | -2690bps |
| EBITDA | $297M | $189M | $306M | −3.2% |
| EPS | $0.17 | $0.02 | $0.16 | +5.4% |
| Operating capacity | 13.5 GW | ~12.8 GW | n/a | +22% net YoY |
| C&I portfolio | 2.9 GW | 2.7 GW | n/a | — |
ReNew entered into a binding transaction agreement with the consortium comprising of CPPIB and Sumant Sinha for the proposed take private of ReNew.— Kailash Vaswani, CFO, 2026-08-18
Management tone: The clearest tone shift is on take-private: three months earlier management said the company remained U.S.-listed and was 'not considering any listing in India,' and the latest call announced a binding agreement. On manufacturing, management moved from a general warning that margins would moderate to quantifying a fall to ~34% from ~40% and choosing to hold guidance rather than raise it, describing the decision as running 'on the side of caution.' On curtailment, a prior forward warning became a quantified current-quarter drag.
Management Guidance
Management reiterated FY27 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of INR 103B–109B, of which manufacturing is INR 10B–12B and asset sales INR 1B–2B, alongside construction of 1.6–2.4 GW and cash flow to equity of INR 18B–22B. It also disclosed a run-rate figure for the fully constructed ~20.5 GW renewable portfolio — adjusted EBITDA of INR 134B–140B and cash flow to equity of INR 32B–36B — excluding manufacturing, assuming normal weather, and including about 1 GW of assets under signed sale that will be adjusted on close. Management said it could revisit the numbers at the Q2 print.
Trajectory
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $1,509.9M, with trailing revenue growth of 13.6% year-on-year and a TTM EBITDA margin of 62.5%. The latest quarter's EBITDA margin of 62.6% was below the 67.3% of the year-ago quarter, as a larger share of revenue came from lower-margin manufacturing and solar output absorbed curtailment. Capacity keeps growing: operating capacity reached 13.5 GW at June 30, 2026, up 22% net year-on-year, against a committed portfolio of about 20.5 GW. Free cash flow was negative $233.7M in the quarter, consistent with a capital-heavy build.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $1,620M and EBITDA of $1,009M, a 62.3% margin, rising to FY+2 revenue of $1,929M and EBITDA of $1,236M, a 64.1% margin. The near-term anchor is the ~20.5 GW committed portfolio and the 6.9 GW already under construction or contracted. FY+2 assumes further commissioning and progress on the manufacturing build-out, including the 4 GW TOPCon cell facility expected fully operational by the end of FY27.
| Metric | FY2026 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| YoY Growth | — | +8.6% | +19.1% |
| EBITDA | $954M | $1.0B | $1.2B |
| EBITDA Margin | 64.0% | 62.3% | 64.1% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 3.2% above analyst consensus.
Management reiterated FY27 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of INR 103B–109B, of which manufacturing is INR 10B–12B and asset sales INR 1B–2B, alongside construction of 1.6–2.4 GW and cash flow to equity of INR 18B–22B. It also disclosed a run-rate figure for the fully constructed ~20.5 GW renewable portfolio — adjusted EBITDA of INR 134B–140B and cash flow to equity of INR 32B–36B — excluding manufacturing, assuming normal weather, and including about 1 GW of assets under signed sale that will be adjusted on close. Management said it could revisit the numbers at the Q2 print.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A named data-centre power purchase agreement, or a disclosed data-centre contracted-MW figure, would turn the AI narrative into contracted capacity.
- A curtailment compensation mechanism from the Ministry of Power would restore volume economics on curtailed assets without new construction.
- Manufacturing margin stabilising above ~34%, or a guidance raise at the Q2 print, would remove the sharpest tension in the guidance record.
- Closing the ~1 GW asset sale would bring about $190M of cash flow to equity onto the balance sheet.
- Leverage moving toward the ~5.5x target would ease the interest burden, which was 61.5% of adjusted EBITDA in FY26.
- Curtailment persisting past the stated 'next few months' and spreading beyond Rajasthan would turn a one-quarter output hit into a structural drag.
- A larger second-half manufacturing step-down than guidance implies would put the FY27 range at risk.
- Refinancing the $1B of USD bonds due in H1 2027 on worse terms would flow straight to cash flow to equity.
- A failed take-private would leave the operating business to be judged on its own.
- Customer concentration cuts both ways: one state distribution company above 10% of total income in FY25, and three hyperscalers at roughly half of contracted C&I offtake.
Looking Ahead
Over the next year the operating story and the corporate event run in parallel. The operating signposts are the Q2 FY27 print, where management has said it could revisit guidance; progress on the 4 GW TOPCon cell facility; closing of the ~1 GW asset sale; and any resolution on curtailment. The corporate signpost is the take-private, which has to clear SEC review, a court convening order, a scheme circular, a non-consortium shareholder vote and regulatory approvals, against a long-stop date of 31 March 2027. Merchant battery capacity is targeted for next year, not FY27.
- Q2 FY27Q2 results, guidance review — Management said it may revisit FY27 guidance at the Q2 print.
- 31 DecemberALMM sales extension expires — Tests the manufacturing margin trend once the extension lapses.
- Next few monthsRajasthan curtailment resolution — Fewer curtailed MW and any Ministry of Power compensation.
- End of CY2026First TOPCon cell produced — Leading indicator for FY28 manufacturing contribution.
- Q1 2027Take-private scheme effective — Subject to SEC review, court order, vote and regulatory approvals.
- End of FY274 GW TOPCon cell operational — Facility complete; contribution expected from FY28.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.5B | +29.9% |
| Gross Margin | 91.3% | 68.2% | 62.2% | 2,308bps |
| EBITDA | $859M | $954M | $944M | +11.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 74.9% | 64.0% | 62.5% | 1,089bps |
| Net Income | $46M | $119M | $122M | +158.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$313M | −$277M | −$590M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)62.2%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)62.5%
- Net Margin (TTM)8.1%
- ROIC5.6%
- FCF Conversion-62.5%
- SBC / Revenue0.4%
The Company
ReNew is an Indian renewable power producer. Its own 20-F describes it as 'a leading decarbonization solutions company' and 'one of the largest utility-scale renewable energy solutions providers in India.' It operates wind, solar and hydro generation assets plus battery storage, and sells the electricity under long-tenor power purchase agreements. Its relevance to the AI build-out runs through its customers: hyperscalers and large technology companies buy renewable power through its commercial and industrial platform, and data centres are cited by management as a driver of incremental electricity demand.
The company is vertically integrated in an unusual way: it runs its own solar module and cell manufacturing, and more than half of its utility-scale solar requirement is met by self-supply. At June 30, 2026 it had 13.5 GW in operation — 5.6 GW wind, 7.8 GW solar, 99 MW hydro and 100 MW / 250 MWh of battery storage — with a committed portfolio of about 20.5 GW and a pipeline of roughly 27 GW. Manufacturing runs 6.5 GW of module and 2.5 GW of cell capacity.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 20-F describes the field generically: 'Our primary competitors include domestic and foreign conventional and renewable energy project developers, independent power producers and utilities.' ReNew's customers are large buyers — utilities and technology companies — with global procurement functions and alternative suppliers in India. The evidence describes the company as differentiated less by geography than by its integrated manufacturing arm, its self-supply of more than half its utility-scale solar modules, and its storage-backed commercial offering.
- Adani GreenNamed in the inferred competitor set; not discussed in filings.
- NTPC GreenNamed in the inferred competitor set; not discussed in filings.
- Tata PowerNamed in the inferred competitor set; not discussed in filings.
- Greenko GroupNamed in the inferred competitor set; not discussed in filings.
- AzureNamed in the inferred competitor set; not discussed in filings.
Supply Chain
ReNew sits at the end of the renewable supply chain: it buys turbines, panels, cells and batteries, builds power plants in India, and sells the electricity under long-term contracts. Its own factories supply over half its utility-scale solar modules.
More on RNW: Earnings recap