TeraWulf Inc. (WULF) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
TeraWulf is a vertically integrated owner, developer, and operator of large-scale digital infrastructure in the United States. It builds and operates power-advantaged data-center campuses and leases powered critical IT capacity to AI compute customers under long-duration contracts. Its role matters because, in the company's framing, the AI buildout is constrained by power, transmission, and interconnection rather than GPU demand. TeraWulf converts controlled power sites and utility relationships into contracted HPC capacity delivered in phases.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $168M |
| Revenue Growth | +27.2% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -83.3% |
| Net Debt | $2.5B |
| Earnings Beats | 0 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- HPC lease revenue grew from $9.7M in Q4 2025 to $31.9M in Q2 2026, with HPC at ~71% of total revenue.
- Anthropic lease: ~401 MW, initial 20-year term, ~$19B contracted revenue at Justified/Hawesville; management cites investment-grade credit support.
- Google credit support for FluidStack lease obligations became effective after CB-3 delivery.
- Muskie adds 1 GW of utility-backed service under a Kentucky PSC-approved data-center tariff, with expansion potential to as much as 2 GW.
- Parent liquidity after the initial Abernathy payment is ~$1.45B; management says the current order book can be funded without equity capital markets.
What We’re Watching
- CB-4 first data hall: Level 3 expected mid-August 2026; lease revenue expected late September 2026.
- CB-5 first data hall energization very early January 2027 tests whether the revised customer-aligned schedule holds.
- Hawesville project-level debt financing has no committed date; Muskie financing is likely H1 2027.
- Reported HPC segment margin is ~28% versus the ~85% long-term target; watch convergence as pre-revenue and development costs roll off.
The thesis is strengthening on contract evidence: Anthropic was signed in the promised Q2 window, CB-3 delivery activated $600M of Google credit support, FERC authorized Chesapeake/Morgantown, Muskie added a utility-backed 1 GW site, and management says no new equity is needed for the current order book. Execution remains the gate. The open question is whether the next Lake Mariner halls and the larger Kentucky and Muskie milestones convert on schedule without cost per critical IT MW moving outside the $8-10M guidance range.
Earnings
Q2 2026 total revenue was $44.8M, with HPC lease revenue of $31.9M, up 52% quarter-over-quarter and about 71% of the total. Reported HPC segment margin was ~28% versus ~80% adjusted; adjusted EBITDA was negative $18.3M, and GAAP net loss was $939.9M including a $755.7M non-cash Google warrant fair-value loss.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34M | $36M | $34M | −1.2% |
| Gross margin | 93.1% | 47.3% | 28.6% | +6450bps |
| EBITDA | −$106M | −$57M | −$43M | +144.5% |
| EPS | $-1.01 | $-0.32 | $-0.16 | +530.7% |
| HPC lease revenue | $31.9M | $21.0M | n/a | — |
Following quarter end, we executed a long-term lease with Anthropic for approximately 401 megawatts of critical IT capacity at our Justified Data campus in Hawesville. The agreement expands our relationship with Anthropic and represents approximately $19 billion of contracted revenue over the initial 20-year lease term.— Paul Prager, CEO, 2026-08-05
Management tone: Management's tone remained confident and execution-focused from Q1 into Q2. The CEO repeated the power-constrained and contract-first framing, and the CFO directly separated reported versus adjusted HPC margin while detailing schedule and cost changes.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted SG&A excluding stock compensation and charitable contributions of $75-100M and the 250-500 MW annual contracted capacity target. CB-4 first data hall lease revenue was refined to late September 2026, CB-5 first energization moved to very early January 2027, and WULF Compute cost was estimated at $9.1M per critical IT MW, within the original $8-10M guidance range.
Trajectory
Total revenue decelerated from $48M in Q2 FY2025 to $34M in Q1 FY2026, then rose to $44.8M in Q2 2026 as the mix shifted. HPC lease revenue grew 117% quarter-over-quarter to $21.0M in Q1 2026 and another 52% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, reaching ~71% of total. Reported HPC segment margin fell from ~50% in Q1 to ~28% in Q2 on higher pre-revenue, fit-out, and development costs; adjusted HPC margin was ~80%.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $325M and EBITDA of negative $254M (-78% margin), then FY+2 revenue of $931M with EBITDA of $372M (40% margin). Near-term revenue is anchored by the Lake Mariner data-hall ramp; the FY+2 step-up reflects a materially larger HPC capacity base, including the targeted 480 MW Kentucky project in H2 2027. Dispersion around the projection is wide: FY+1 revenue across runs spans $262M to $459M, and FY+2 spans $737M to $1,265M.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $168M | $325M | $931M |
| YoY Growth | — | +93.0% | +186.5% |
| EBITDA | −$77M | −$254M | $372M |
| EBITDA Margin | -45.8% | -78.0% | 40.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted SG&A excluding stock compensation and charitable contributions of $75-100M and the 250-500 MW annual contracted capacity target. CB-4 first data hall lease revenue was refined to late September 2026, CB-5 first energization moved to very early January 2027, and WULF Compute cost was estimated at $9.1M per critical IT MW, within the original $8-10M guidance range.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- CB-4 and CB-5 complete on revised schedules, stepping up HPC lease revenue into late 2026 and early 2027.
- The Kentucky 480 MW target comes online H2 2027, converting the Anthropic lease into revenue.
- Muskie signs a tenant and expands toward 2 GW, pulling forward capacity beyond Q4 2028.
- Reported HPC segment margin converges toward ~85% as pre-revenue and development costs decline.
- A direct lease with another high-IG hyperscaler diversifies the customer base beyond Anthropic, FluidStack/Google, and Core42.
- Further slippage at CB-4 or CB-5 defers lease revenue again and weakens the execution narrative.
- Cost per critical IT MW escalates beyond the original $8-10M guidance range.
- Hawesville or Muskie project-level debt financing fails to close or closes on worse terms.
- Loss, delay, or credit event at Core42, FluidStack/Google, or Anthropic hits the concentrated HPC revenue base.
- Regulatory or permitting delays in Kentucky, Maryland, or New York slow capacity delivery.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months turn on Lake Mariner's data-hall ramp—CB-4 lease revenue expected late September 2026 and CB-5 first energization very early January 2027—alongside ISO feedback on the incremental 250 MW interconnect expected midyear 2026. Farther out, watch Hawesville project-level financing with no committed date, Muskie financing likely in H1 2027, and the Kentucky 480 MW target in H2 2027.
- Mid-Aug 2026CB-4 Level 3 commissioning — First CB-4 data hall reaches Level 3; lease revenue expected late September 2026.
- Late Sep 2026CB-4 lease revenue begins — Tests whether the next Lake Mariner hall reaches Level 4 on the revised schedule.
- Dec 31 2026Abernathy $150M payment due — Second deferred payment from the Abernathy JV sale is due on or before this date.
- Very early Jan 2027CB-5 first energization — Revised customer-aligned start; then commissioning toward Level 4 revenue.
- H1 2027Muskie project financing expected — Project-level debt financing likely in the first half of 2027.
- H2 2027Kentucky 480 MW target online — Justified/Anthropic capacity expected energized and generating revenue.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $140M | $168M | $168M | +20.2% |
| Gross Margin | 54.1% | 48.9% | 64.0% | 525bps |
| EBITDA | −$15M | −$77M | −$278M | -411.3% |
| EBITDA Margin | -10.8% | -45.8% | -83.3% | 3,507bps |
| Net Income | −$72M | −$662M | −$1.0B | -813.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$292M | −$1.2B | −$2.3B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)64.0%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-83.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)-611.7%
- ROIC-8.1%
- SBC / Revenue44.6%
The Company
TeraWulf is a vertically integrated owner, developer, and operator of large-scale digital infrastructure in the United States, purpose-built for high-performance computing including AI, machine learning, and advanced cloud applications. It leases powered critical IT capacity to AI compute customers under long-term data-center leases, typically with base terms of 10 to 25 years. It is not a GPU owner or AI service provider; it sits in the physical power and infrastructure layer.
The company reports two segments: HPC Platform/HPC Leasing and Bitcoin Mining. HPC leasing is the growth engine and became ~71% of Q2 2026 revenue; legacy mining is being wound down with no significant new capital and an expected exit by the next halving. TeraWulf controls power-advantaged sites including Lake Mariner, Abernathy, Hawesville/Justified, Muskie, Morgantown/Chesapeake, and Cayuga, and recognizes lease revenue only when a data hall completes Level 4 commissioning.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 10-K describes a broad competitive set: data center REITs, independent developers, hyperscalers, infrastructure funds, and digital asset miners with HPC conversion potential. TeraWulf positions itself as power-first and contract-first, but the mining-to-AI pivot is an industry-wide wave, with named peers also converting capacity.
- Named in peer read-through as having signed three hyperscale leases; says premium sites with near-term power are pricing up and lease rates are not declining.
- Named in peer read-through as saying 2027 capacity is extremely scarce and all operational capacity is fully contracted.
- Named in peer read-through; says H100 pricing increased about 40% since late 2025 and the AI compute imbalance may persist into 2027 and beyond.
- MARANamed in peer read-through; says available connected energy is the bottleneck on AI compute growth.
- RIOTNamed in peer read-through; generated first operating lease revenue and expanded an AMD lease from 25 MW to 50 MW.
Supply Chain
TeraWulf sits between power utilities and AI compute tenants. It buys construction, power, cooling, and networking inputs, and sells powered data-hall capacity. Documented utility and EPC partners include Kentucky Power/AEP, Big Rivers, Fluor, and Hypertec.
More on WULF: Earnings recap