AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
AirJoule Technologies is a pre-commercial company whose platform pulls pure distilled water out of ambient air. Its metal-organic-framework sorbent coating adsorbs water vapor, then releases it as distilled water when regenerated with heat. The company says its MOF regenerates at much lower temperatures than conventional desiccant wheels, which is why low-grade waste heat — the kind data centers and industrial sites already produce — is enough to run it. AirJoule Prime is the industrial-scale system pitched at data centers and large sites; Core is the smaller platform serving dehumidification and distributed water generation. Commercialization runs through a 50/50 joint venture with GE Vernova and partnerships with Carrier and TenX.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $0M |
| Net Cash | $41M |
| Earnings Beats | 3 of 6 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Combined cash of $43 million (AIRJ plus JV) with no debt, and management extended the guided liquidity runway to into 2028.
- The BitSink acquisition (2026-09-14) adds a data-center cooling, electrical distribution and racking business that the press release characterizes as profitable, with 220+ MW of equipment deployments across North America.
- Kubota signed as exclusive residential sales channel in Texas and California, with two AirJoule Core systems deploying in Q3 2026.
- Core DH head-to-head testing shows up to approximately 40% energy savings versus incumbent desiccant wheels, targeting an estimated 1.2 million unit installed base at 30%–50% relative humidity.
- Policy tailwinds: New York's moratorium on data-center permits over 50 MW and Texas' pause on grid-connected data centers raise the need for on-site water.
What We’re Watching
- Q3 2026: the first Prime unit ships to Europe via the Net Zero Innovation Hub, and two Kubota Core systems start near Corpus Christi, Texas and Irvine, California.
- Prime output is still 'tracking toward' 2,000 liters per day — 'up to' at higher humidity, with specific measures identified to close the gap.
- Several items went silent on the latest call: the leading hyperscaler evaluation, water purchase agreements, the Core AWG late-2026 launch and the ERDC CRADA, and certification progress.
- The FY2026 cash-spend guide was raised, and management gave no formal 2027 guidance; it said incremental capital above the prior guide goes to the JV and additional units.
The thesis is intact but unproven. The company keeps widening its footprint — a named exclusive Kubota channel, a UAE shipment, a European Hub collaboration, and now an acquired data-center infrastructure business — faster than it is converting that footprint into revenue. The 10-Q shows no revenue, and management continues to place meaningful commercial revenue in 2027. The strengthening evidence is real: Prime is commissioned and running, Core design is locked, and runway is extended. The weakening evidence is the raised cash-spend guide and the items that went silent this quarter. The open question is whether the 2026 demonstration units convert into contracted 2027 revenue — and what BitSink actually adds.
Earnings
AirJoule reported no meaningful product revenue in the second quarter of 2026, so there is no gross margin to report. Net operating expenses at the AirJoule Technologies level were $4.1 million, including $0.8 million of administrative and engineering expenses reimbursed by the JV. The net loss was $8.5 million, driven primarily by $5.1 million of non-cash losses from fair-value increases in earn-out and subject vesting share liabilities. Combined cash across the company and its JV was $43 million, with no debt.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | $0M | — |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | −$4M | −$4M | −$4M | −2.4% |
| EPS | $-0.12 | $-0.74 | $0.04 | −393.7% |
| Net operating expenses | $4.1M | $3.6M | n/a | — |
| Combined cash (AIRJ + JV) | $43M | $35M | n/a | — |
The second quarter moved AirJoule from validating the technology to building defined commercial channels.— Matthew Jore, 2026-08-14
Management tone: Across the two most recent calls, management's tone was confident on commercial progress and moved from technology validation toward channel building. On the Q2 2026 call it named an exclusive Kubota channel, reported a UAE shipment and an Expo City green license, and said the first Prime system was commissioned and running 24/7. It stayed measured on financials, raising the FY2026 cash-spend guide while extending the liquidity runway, and declined to give formal 2027 guidance. It also qualified the Prime output target as 'up to' at higher humidity and said measures are identified to close the gap.
Management Guidance
For FY2026, management guides combined cash spend at AirJoule Technologies and the JV to approximately $27 million to $28 million — 'slightly higher' than the prior ~$25 million guide, which it attributes to increased commercialization activities. It says liquidity is sufficient to fund operations, the JV and planned commercial deployments into 2028. Revenue timing is unchanged: modest paid deployment revenue at the JV during 2026, with more meaningful commercial revenue beginning in 2027. Management declined formal 2027 guidance but said next year should trend 'similar' to current thinking. Prime is described as on time for 2027 contract-manufacturing conversations.
Trajectory
Revenue is still zero. The 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 states that no revenue was earned, and no meaningful product revenue printed in the following quarter either. The visible trajectory is cost and cash: corporate net operating expenses were $3.6 million in Q1 2026 and $4.1 million in Q2 2026, while JV operating expenses ran roughly $5.5 million and $5 million. Combined cash rose from $35 million to $43 million, helped by $14.2 million of net proceeds from a registered direct offering completed in early June 2026. The reported net loss swung from $49.8 million in Q1 2026, on a large JV impairment, to $8.5 million in Q2 2026, so the loss line reflects non-cash items more than operations.
The Model
AirJoule's locked model projections show FY+1 revenue of $7.0 million and EBITDA of -$16 million (-168%), rising to FY+2 revenue of $32.0 million and EBITDA of -$11 million (-35%). The dispersion across the five underlying runs is wide — FY+1 revenue ranges from $0 to $18 million and FY+2 revenue from $0 to $95 million — a sign of how little of the commercial ramp is contracted. The near-term anchor is the modest paid deployment revenue management guides at the JV for 2026; the FY+2 step-up assumes Core and Prime deployments convert to commercial revenue beginning in 2027.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $7M | $32M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | +357.1% |
| EBITDA | −$14M | −$16M | −$11M |
| EBITDA Margin | — | -168.0% | -35.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
For FY2026, management guides combined cash spend at AirJoule Technologies and the JV to approximately $27 million to $28 million — 'slightly higher' than the prior ~$25 million guide, which it attributes to increased commercialization activities. It says liquidity is sufficient to fund operations, the JV and planned commercial deployments into 2028. Revenue timing is unchanged: modest paid deployment revenue at the JV during 2026, with more meaningful commercial revenue beginning in 2027. Management declined formal 2027 guidance but said next year should trend 'similar' to current thinking. Prime is described as on time for 2027 contract-manufacturing conversations.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A signed volume order or water purchase agreement turns the 2026 demonstration units into contracted recurring revenue.
- The leading hyperscale operator's evaluation converts into a deployment, validating the data-center thesis.
- BitSink's profitability and 220+ MW deployed base are confirmed with financials, pulling the revenue narrative forward.
- Prime reaches 2,000 liters per day across humidity conditions, removing the 'up to' caveat, and the Europe unit converts to a named Hub-member engagement.
- A contract-manufacturing partner is named, lowering the incremental capital needed to scale.
- Revenue timing slips past 2027, breaking the modest-2026 and meaningful-2027 frame and pressuring the runway-to-2028 math.
- Cash burn accelerates beyond the ~$27M–$28M guide, or a financing is done on weakening terms.
- Data centers have ample alternatives for water and cooling, so the perceived need for on-site generation may not materialize at scale.
- BASF's sole-source MOF position, plus AirJoule's low-volume purchaser status, binds once volumes are needed.
- Another large non-cash impairment hits on a share-price or fair-value trigger, as in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the task is conversion. The first Prime unit ships to Europe in Q3 2026 through the Net Zero Innovation Hub, and two Kubota Core systems start in the same window near Corpus Christi, Texas and Irvine, California. Management targets a Core AWG commercial launch in Q4 2026 and Core DH in 2027, with contract-manufacturing conversations set for 2027 and volume scale anticipated in 2028. Revenue is guided as modest paid deployment at the JV in 2026 and more meaningful commercial revenue beginning in 2027. BitSink, acquired 2026-09-14, adds an operating data-center infrastructure business whose financial contribution is not disclosed.
- Q3 2026Prime ships to Europe — First AirJoule Prime unit goes to the Net Zero Innovation Hub.
- Q3 2026Kubota Core systems start — Two Core systems begin near Corpus Christi, TX and Irvine, CA.
- Q4 2026Core AWG target launch — Targeted commercial launch for military and small residential.
- 2027Core DH commercial launch — Target launch for the dehumidification variant; effort to accelerate.
- 2027Contract manufacturing talks — Prime on time for 2027 contract-manufacturing conversations.
- 2028Volume-scale manufacturing — Company anticipates volume-scale contract manufacturing in 2028.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | $0M | — |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | −$66M | −$14M | −$14M | +79.3% |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $216M | −$9M | −$85M | -104.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$23M | −$6M | −$7M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- ROIC-5.3%
The Company
AirJoule Technologies is a pre-commercial advanced-materials and hardware company. Its platform technology, AirJoule, uses a metal-organic-framework sorbent coating that adsorbs water vapor from ambient air and releases it as pure distilled water when regenerated with heat. The company says its MOF regenerates at 60–70°C versus 120–150°C for conventional desiccant wheels — the basis of its efficiency claim, and why low-grade waste heat at data centers and industrial sites is a sufficient energy source. AirJoule Prime targets on-site industrial-scale distilled water at data centers; AirJoule Core serves dehumidification and distributed water generation. The 10-K describes the company's purpose as freeing the world from its water and energy constraints.
AirJoule commercializes through a 50/50 joint venture with GE Vernova Inc. and commercial partnerships with Carrier Global Corporation and TenX Investment. Its Newark, Delaware facility — 45,000 square feet, operated by the JV — handles manufacturing, assembly, quality assurance and environmental testing, and hosts the first operating full-scale Prime system. It also leases a 4,000 square-foot office and R&D site in Polson, Montana, lab space in Wilmington, Delaware for coating-formulation research, and a 12,000 square-foot R&D facility supporting the GE Vernova Advanced Research Center collaboration.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
AirJoule's 10-K lists Carrier, Trane Technologies plc, Lennox International, Inc., Mitsubishi Electric Corporation and Rheem Manufacturing Company among the largest companies in the HVAC market, and names startups Blue Frontier, Mojave Systems and Transaera. The company's stated edge is its MOF regenerating at lower temperatures than conventional desiccant wheels, which it says shows up to approximately 40% energy savings in head-to-head testing. In data centers, management frames AirJoule as a way to get a project back on track where water permitting has stalled it.
- Carrier Global CorporationNamed in the 10-K's HVAC competitor list; also discussed on the Q2 2026 call as a data-center heat-recovery collaborator.
- Trane Technologies plcNamed in the 10-K's HVAC competitor list; not discussed.
- Lennox International, Inc.Named in the 10-K's HVAC competitor list; not discussed.
- Mitsubishi Electric CorporationNamed in the 10-K's HVAC competitor list; not discussed.
- Rheem Manufacturing CompanyNamed in the 10-K's HVAC competitor list; not discussed.
Supply Chain
AirJoule sits just upstream of data centers and industrial sites as a supplier of water-from-air equipment, and downstream of a small set of material and component providers. Its most critical input is a sorbent made by a single manufacturer.
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