IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
IDACORP is a holding company whose main operating subsidiary, Idaho Power, generates, transmits, distributes, sells, and purchases electric energy and capacity. It does not report an AI segment, but its service area contains semiconductor fabrication and data-center facilities that require large amounts of firm power, so its energy service agreements and delivery infrastructure sit beneath the AI infrastructure buildout.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.8B |
| Revenue Growth | −0.5% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 36.3% |
| Net Debt | $4.0B |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Five-year capital plan of roughly $7 billion supports a projected 16.7% rate base CAGR through 2030.
- Large-load pipeline exceeds 4,000 MW and runs well into the 2030s; management's published 8.3% IRP load growth is deliberately conservative.
- Industrial energy sales grew 5.7% year over year in Q1 2026, and management says the large-customer ramp will accelerate during 2026.
- Operating cash flow exceeded $600 million in 2025 for the first time, expected to fund more than half of 2026-2030 capital needs.
- Idaho Power rates are 20% to 30% below the national average, with rates up 23% over the past decade versus 41% nationally.
What We’re Watching
- Moody's downgraded IDACORP to Baa3 and Idaho Power to Baa2 in March 2026; management is not targeting 18% FFO/debt this year or next.
- Management says the company is at maximum capacity to get work done between now and 2028.
- 2026 hydropower guidance top end was trimmed from 7.5 million to 7.0 million MWh on low snowpack.
- No customer-concentration table is disclosed, so revenue dependence on Micron and Meta is not quantified; delays would shift load, revenue, and rate-case timing.
The operational evidence is strengthening: large-load revenue is beginning to appear, the company has set aside a 2026 Idaho general rate case, and the Q2 press release raised the lower end of earnings guidance. The open question is whether credit metrics can stay above rating thresholds while the five-year capital program and execution load strain the balance sheet.
Earnings Beat
IDACORP reported Q2 2026 revenue of $469.8 million and gross margin of 28.0%. Net income attributable to IDACORP was $102.6 million, and the quarter was achieved without recording any additional tax credits under the Idaho regulatory mechanism.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $470M | $402M | $451M | +4.2% |
| Gross margin | 28.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | +560bps |
| EBITDA | $197M | $119M | $163M | +20.5% |
| EPS | $1.79 | $1.21 | $1.76 | +1.9% |
| Diluted EPS | $1.79 | $1.21 | $1.76 | +1.7% |
Management tone: No earnings call on record for the latest period.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $6.25 to $6.45 on the April 30 call, along with O&M expense of $525 million to $535 million and capital expenditures of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Hydropower generation guidance was trimmed to 5.5 million to 7.0 million MWh. The July 30 press release stated the lower end of EPS guidance was increased, but the exact revised range was not included in the supplied excerpt.
Trajectory
Revenue was $402.5 million in Q1 2026 and $469.8 million in Q2 2026. Gross margin rose from 12.8% in Q1 to 28.0% in Q2, while retail revenue benefited from rate increases and customer growth even as wholesale and derivative-related lines fell. Industrial energy sales grew 5.7% year over year in Q1 2026.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $1,900 million and EBITDA of $671 million at a 35.3% margin, rising to $2,100 million and $775 million at a 36.9% margin in FY+2. The near-term anchor is the ramp in contracted large-load revenue and rate-base growth; FY+2 assumes continued industrial load additions and transmission and generation contributions.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.1B |
| YoY Growth | — | +4.8% | +10.5% |
| EBITDA | $618M | $671M | $775M |
| EBITDA Margin | 34.1% | 35.3% | 36.9% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 2.4% below analyst consensus.
Management reaffirmed 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $6.25 to $6.45 on the April 30 call, along with O&M expense of $525 million to $535 million and capital expenditures of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Hydropower generation guidance was trimmed to 5.5 million to 7.0 million MWh. The July 30 press release stated the lower end of EPS guidance was increased, but the exact revised range was not included in the supplied excerpt.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Micron Fab 2 is included in the Q4 2026 IRP, lifting official load growth above 8.3%.
- B2H, SWIFT North, and Gateway West transmission projects enter service by 2028 as scheduled.
- Company-owned resources win in the 2026-2032 RFP, adding CapEx beyond the current plan; historical win rate is about 50%.
- Large-load revenue offsets depreciation, interest, and wildfire mitigation costs enough to avoid a 2026 general rate case.
- Credit metrics stabilize as large-load revenue ramps.
- Micron or Meta ramp slips, delaying large-load revenue and rate-case timing.
- FFO/debt falls toward Moody's downgrade threshold while financing the build-out.
- Execution delays hit the three transmission lines and three gas plants as management says the company is at maximum capacity to get work done through 2028.
- Hydropower generation finishes below the trimmed 5.5 million to 7.0 million MWh range.
- Gas pipeline concentration tightens as the new 167 MW, 222 MW, and 430 MW plants increase demand.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months are about converting pipeline into committed load and executing the build. The Q4 2026 IRP update could lift the official 8.3% load-growth forecast and may include Micron Fab 2. SWIFT North groundbreakings, Oregon sale regulatory filings, and the 2026-2032 RFP process run in parallel.
- September 2026SWIFT North Idaho groundbreaking — Tests construction start; final BLM authorization still pending.
- 2026Oregon sale regulatory filings — Tests whether approvals stay on the 10-month-plus timeline.
- Q4 2026IRP load-growth update — Tests upside to 8.3%; possible Micron Fab 2 inclusion.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | -0.8% |
| Gross Margin | 17.6% | 19.7% | 21.7% | +210bps |
| EBITDA | $556M | $618M | $5.1B | +11.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.4% | 34.1% | 36.3% | +365bps |
| Net Income | $289M | $323M | $339M | +11.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$415M | −$578M | −$1.6B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)21.7%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)36.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)18.8%
- ROIC3.9%
- FCF Conversion-169.0%
- SBC / Revenue0.0%
The Company
IDACORP is a holding company whose principal operating subsidiary, Idaho Power, is a regulated electric utility engaged in generation, transmission, distribution, sale, and purchase of electric energy and capacity. As of December 31, 2025, Idaho Power served approximately 664,000 retail customers in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon.
The company operates 17 hydropower plants, three natural gas-fired plants in southern Idaho, interests in the Jim Bridger and North Valmy plants, and 1,228 MWh of battery storage across 9 facilities. Through Ida-West Energy, it also holds a 50% interest in nine hydropower projects totaling 44 MW in Idaho and California.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
IDACORP operates as a regulated territorial utility in a high-growth, low-cost region. The 10-K names fuel distribution companies, including natural gas providers, as competitors for end-use energy. Management also says Idaho Power competes equally with independent power producers in request-for-proposal processes and has won about 50% of such bids historically.
- Fuel distribution companies, including natural gas providersNamed in the 10-K as competitors for space heating, water heating, and appliance energy needs.
- Independent power producersManagement says Idaho Power competes equally with them in request-for-proposal processes, with a historical win rate of about 50%.
Supply Chain
IDACORP sits between fuel suppliers and the large-load customers in its service territory. Its supply relationships are documented in the 10-K; most peer utility relationships in the supplied read-throughs are inferred, not direct.