MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
MARA Holdings owns and operates power and data-center infrastructure, with Bitcoin mining as its current revenue base. The company is repositioning around AI and high-performance computing: it sells powered land and, through its Starwood joint venture, plans to develop hyperscale data-center campuses for lease. Its argument is that power is the scarce input for AI, and it has assembled an operating gas plant at Long Ridge, a Texas site with existing transmission lines, and a sovereign-cloud business in Exaion. The AI data-center leases the plan depends on are not yet signed.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $804M |
| Revenue Growth | +0.7% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 2.3% |
| Net Debt | $2.0B |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Power portfolio expected to reach ~4.8 GW on completion of pending transactions and approvals; management says this is nearly 2.5 times its size at the beginning of the year.
- Long Ridge: a ~505 MW combined-cycle gas plant plus 1,600 contiguous acres for a $1.5 billion enterprise value, with ~$144 million annualized EBITDA at close and ~70% of output under long-term contracts.
- Matagorda County site: 1,200 acres and up to ~2 GW of potential capacity, with multiple transmission lines already at the site and, per management, no utility infrastructure build needed.
- Starwood joint venture illustrative economics: $50 million to $100 million of net annualized stabilized cash flow per 200 MW, on a 9% to 15% yield on cost.
- Mining unit cost: $27.70 per petahash per day, improved 27% over nine quarters, and 4 cents per kilowatt-hour at owned sites.
What We’re Watching
- No AI data-center leases signed yet; management targets 'at least 2 leases before year end' 2026.
- Long Ridge closing waits on FERC approval, expected before year end 2026; Matagorda waits on ERCOT and interconnection approvals.
- 54% of Bitcoin holdings pledged as collateral under borrowings; holdings fell to 35.6 thousand BTC from 50 thousand a year ago.
- The initial 200 MW Long Ridge AI build (construction H1 2027, online mid-2028) was not reaffirmed on the August 6, 2026 call.
The thesis is intact but unproven. MARA has moved from a scaled Bitcoin miner toward a power-first developer: it added a ~2 GW Texas site, financed a $1.5 billion power acquisition with Bitcoin-backed debt, and put dollar-scale figures on two new revenue lines. What has not moved is the thing the strategy rests on — a signed AI lease. Until at least one tenant signs, the AI revenue is a plan. The open question is whether MARA can convert powered sites into signed leases before competitors take the best tenants.
Earnings
MARA reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $175 million, down from $239 million a year earlier. CFO Salman Khan attributed the decline to a 28% lower average Bitcoin price, a $65.9 million revenue impact, partly offset by Bitcoin production. The quarter's net loss was $611 million, or negative $1.60 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $361 million; about $343 million of the net loss came from unrealized Bitcoin mark-to-market adjustments.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $175M | $175M | $238M | −26.7% |
| Gross margin | 72.1% | -93.0% | 82.5% | -1040bps |
| EBITDA | −$93M | −$57M | $842M | −111.1% |
| EPS | $-1.60 | $-3.31 | $1.83 | −187.2% |
| Energized hash rate | 70.3 EH/s | 72.2 EH/s | 57.4 EH/s | +22% YoY |
| Bitcoin holdings | 35.6K BTC | 35.3K BTC | 50K BTC | Down from 50K BTC |
we are funding a $1.5 billion enterprise value acquisition through a Bitcoin backed debt and assumption of Long Ridge's balance sheet. All non dilutive financings. This is the capital discipline we committed to.— Salman Khan, CFO, August 6, 2026
Management tone: Across the two calls in the source material, the framing stayed consistent — power as the binding constraint, mining as a flexible workload, AI as the growth vector — while the register shifted from plan to execution. On the August 6, 2026 call, management said shareholders should judge it "not by our vision, but by our execution," and narrowed its lease promise from "multiple tenant leases by year-end" to "at least 2 leases before year end." It disclosed that financing had moved from selling Bitcoin to pledging it, and it did not reaffirm the 200 MW Long Ridge build timeline given in May.
Management Guidance
On the August 6, 2026 call, management guided to at least 2 tenant leases before year end, a ~4.8 GW power portfolio on completion of pending transactions and approvals, and a Long Ridge close after FERC approval it expects before year end. It put Exaion revenue at 'low 8 digits' this year and HUM at an '8 digit a year business' annualized, both described as not material near term. It expects quarterly G&A, excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition and integration costs, to trend lower, and said its most significant third-party hosting arrangements expire beginning Q3 2027 and conclude by Q1 2028. The Bitcoin fair-value sensitivity guide was lowered to ~$350 million per $10,000 move from $538 million previously.
Trajectory
MARA's revenue has been decelerating. It moved from $252 million in the September 2025 quarter to $202 million, then $175 million in each of the next two quarters, and fell year over year in both reported quarters on lower average Bitcoin prices. Computed signals show gross and EBITDA margins compressing, with trailing-twelve-month EBITDA of $18.3 million on $804.2 million of revenue. Free cash flow was negative $565.6 million in the June 2026 quarter. Offsetting this, mining unit cost is improving: $27.70 per petahash per day, improved 27% over nine quarters, and 4 cents per kilowatt-hour at owned sites. The AI data-center revenue the strategy is built around has not started.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $691 million with EBITDA of negative $281 million, a negative 40.7% margin, reflecting a business still carrying heavy costs against a Bitcoin-denominated revenue base. FY+2 revenue rises to $941 million with EBITDA turning positive at $31 million, a 3.3% margin. The near-term anchor is the timing of signed AI leases and the Long Ridge close; the FY+2 shift depends on AI data-center capacity beginning to earn revenue. Across the model's five runs, FY+2 revenue ranged from $817 million to $1,019 million. These are the model's locked projections, not company guidance.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $907M | $691M | $941M |
| YoY Growth | — | −23.8% | +36.2% |
| EBITDA | $627M | −$281M | $31M |
| EBITDA Margin | 69.1% | -40.7% | 3.3% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
On the August 6, 2026 call, management guided to at least 2 tenant leases before year end, a ~4.8 GW power portfolio on completion of pending transactions and approvals, and a Long Ridge close after FERC approval it expects before year end. It put Exaion revenue at 'low 8 digits' this year and HUM at an '8 digit a year business' annualized, both described as not material near term. It expects quarterly G&A, excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition and integration costs, to trend lower, and said its most significant third-party hosting arrangements expire beginning Q3 2027 and conclude by Q1 2028. The Bitcoin fair-value sensitivity guide was lowered to ~$350 million per $10,000 move from $538 million previously.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- At least 2 signed AI tenant leases before year end 2026, converting powered sites into contracted revenue.
- Long Ridge closing after FERC approval, adding ~$144 million of annualized EBITDA with ~70% contracted.
- Matagorda advancing through ERCOT with up to ~2 GW of potential and existing transmission lines.
- Starwood joint venture projects reaching the illustrative $50 million to $100 million net annualized stabilized cash flow per 200 MW.
- Exaion and HUM growing beyond their current 'low 8 digits' and '8-digit annualized' scale.
- No AI tenant lease is signed; a slip past year end 2026 defers first meaningful AI data-center revenue to a 2028-or-later event.
- FERC delay to Long Ridge or an adverse ERCOT ruling for Matagorda sets back the ~4.8 GW portfolio.
- A further Bitcoin price decline cuts revenue and weakens the collateral backing the Bitcoin-backed facilities.
- Rising collateral encumbrance — 54% of holdings pledged — reduces balance-sheet flexibility.
- Competitors have already signed contracts, so the best tenants may be committed before MARA leases.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the record points to three tests: whether MARA signs at least 2 AI tenant leases before year end 2026, whether FERC approves the Long Ridge acquisition in time to close, and whether Matagorda advances through ERCOT. Management also plans an Investor Day later in 2026. The revenue ramp is dated further out: the initial Long Ridge AI build, if the May 11 timeline holds, starts construction in H1 2027 and comes online in mid-2028, and the source's estimate places first meaningful AI data-center revenue at 2028 or later.
- Before year end 2026Sign AI tenant leases — Targets at least 2; tests whether the tenant pipeline converts.
- Before year end 2026FERC Long Ridge decision — Gate for closing; would add ~$144M annualized EBITDA.
- Later in 2026Investor Day — Management plans a deeper look at the strategy.
- Q3 2027Hosting contracts expire — Roll-off begins and concludes Q1 2028, removing hosting costs.
- 2027Convertible notes put date — Management is planning for 2027 debt puts.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $656M | $907M | $804M | +38.2% |
| Gross Margin | 14.0% | 31.5% | -8.5% | +1,745bps |
| EBITDA | $733M | $627M | $18M | -14.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 111.7% | 69.1% | 2.3% | 4,260bps |
| Net Income | $541M | −$1.3B | −$3.5B | -342.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$930M | −$1.2B | −$1.6B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)-8.5%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)2.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)-429.7%
- ROIC-17.1%
- FCF Conversion-8555.7%
- SBC / Revenue21.9%
The Company
MARA Holdings is a Bitcoin miner repositioning itself as an energy and digital infrastructure company. It mines Bitcoin at owned and operated sites and is developing AI inference and high-performance computing capacity, which it expects to sell as inference compute and private, dedicated cloud solutions to third-party customers. Revenue today is almost entirely Bitcoin-driven: the largest line is mining operator block rewards, which the filing shows at $156.250 million in the first quarter of 2026 out of $174.614 million total. Management frames mining as a flexible workload that monetizes power while AI sites are developed.
The company operates its own sites rather than relying mainly on third parties. The 10-K lists US sites including Granbury, Texas (~300 MW), other Central Texas sites (~250 MW), East Ohio (~225 MW), a 180 MW wind farm in North Texas, Central Ohio (150 MW), and Central Nebraska (142 MW), plus five international facilities in three countries. The August 6, 2026 call said a little under 30% of the mining portfolio is hosted and the rest is owned and operated, and cited '19 data centers across 4 continents.' The two footprint descriptions do not reconcile.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
MARA competes in a crowded and overlapping field of Bitcoin miners pivoting into AI and high-performance computing colocation. The source's relationship map names a cohort of 10+ companies targeting 10+ GW, including CleanSpark, IREN, Riot, Core Scientific, Cipher Mining, HIVE, Bitdeer, Applied Digital, and TeraWolf. MARA's stated edge is power — energized, permitted capacity in the right places. The neighbors' own disclosures show MARA is late to contracting: several peers have signed AI leases or disclosed contracted revenue while MARA still has none.
- IRENPeer disclosure shows more than $4 billion of ARR under contract by the December quarter, 3-year contract pricing up about 125% since November, and 'our 2026 capacity is largely sold out.'
- CleanSpark (CLSK)Peer disclosure says AI lease signing is 'highly accelerated,' with mining gross margin falling to 47% from 57%.
- HIVEPeer disclosure shows contracted GPU cloud revenue of $180M ARR, including a 5-year $350M total-contract-value deal.
- Applied Digital (APLD)Peer disclosure shows $36 billion of total contracted long-term lease value and 1.41 GW of contracted critical IT load.
- TeraWolf (WULF)Peer disclosure shows a 20-year Anthropic lease worth about $19 billion of contracted revenue and 102 MW of revenue-generating critical IT capacity.
Supply Chain
MARA sits between power generation upstream and AI and hyperscale tenants downstream. Its scarce inputs are energization and mining equipment; its scarce output is powered land and shell. No neighbor transcript in the source material mentions MARA by name, so the read-through is inferred.
More on MARA: Earnings recap