MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
MARA Holdings is an energy and digital infrastructure company that grew up as a Bitcoin miner and is now trying to convert accumulated power, land, and operating capability into AI/HPC data center campuses. It uses Bitcoin mining as a flexible, energy-responsive workload, and in parallel is developing AI inference and high-performance computing capabilities; management describes digital infrastructure as its primary growth focus.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $868M |
| Revenue Growth | +23.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 109.8% |
| Net Debt | $1.9B |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- After pending deals, management expects the power portfolio to reach approximately 4.8 GW, more than double current capacity.
- Long Ridge adds an operating ~505 MW gas plant with about $144 million annualized adjusted EBITDA and a path to 600 MW of AI/critical IT load.
- Starwood JV partner has developed more than 7 GW of data center capacity; an illustrative 200 MW project could generate $50–100 million of net annualized stabilized cash flow.
- Owned-site mining cost base remains low at $0.04 per kWh, and daily cost per petahash improved 4% YoY to $27.70.
- Balance-sheet actions removed dilution overhang: about $1.5 billion of Bitcoin sold, roughly one-third of outstanding debt retired, and no ATM usage since September 2025.
What We’re Watching
- No AI/HPC tenant lease has been signed; management targets at least two leases before year-end 2026.
- Long Ridge close still needs FERC approval; management expects a response 'definitely before year end,' but no approval has been received.
- Matagorda's up to 2 GW potential depends on ERCOT and interconnection approvals; power arrives gradually over about two years.
- 54% of Bitcoin holdings are pledged as collateral after new credit facilities, up from 28% in Q1 2026, creating collateral-call risk if Bitcoin falls.
The thesis is strengthening in asset terms but remains commercially unproven. The power portfolio is scaling toward approximately 4.8 GW, and the balance sheet has been de-risked through Bitcoin sales, debt retirement, and non-dilutive financing. Yet the core proof point—signed AI/HPC tenant leases—has not arrived. The open question is whether MARA can sign at least two leases before year-end 2026 and close Long Ridge on schedule.
Earnings
Q2 2026 revenue was $175 million, down from $239 million a year earlier, with the decline driven by a 28% lower average Bitcoin price. MARA does not report a conventional gross margin; the standout metric was a $343 million non-cash Bitcoin mark-to-market loss within a reported net loss of $611 million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $361 million.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $175M | $202M | $214M | −18.4% |
| Gross margin | -93.0% | -119.2% | 79.7% | -17270bps |
| EBITDA | −$57M | −$46M | −$383M | −85.0% |
| EPS | $-3.31 | $-4.81 | $-1.55 | +113.8% |
| Energized hashrate (EH/s) | 70.3 | 72.2 | 57.4 | +22.5% |
As a reminder, every $10 thousand change in Bitcoin price results in an approximate $350 million impact on the fair value of digital assets on our income statement which is an unrealized noncash adjustment.— Salman H. Khan, CFO, 2026-08-06
Management tone: Management shifted from transformation language to execution language, repeating that shareholders should judge the company by execution rather than vision. On the Q2 2026 call, management acknowledged market focus on signed contracts and gave direct answers on FERC timing, lease timing, and the rough sizes of Exaion and HUM.
Management Guidance
No traditional annual revenue or EPS guidance was issued. Management's stated milestones and assumptions include signing at least two AI/HPC tenant leases before year-end 2026; closing Long Ridge after FERC approval, with a FERC response expected 'definitely before year end'; quarterly G&A excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition/integration costs expected to trend lower; and a power portfolio of approximately 4.8 GW after pending transactions and approvals.
Trajectory
Revenue has decelerated and then declined, from $252.4 million in Q3 2025 to $202.3 million in Q4 2025 to $174.6 million in Q1 2026, and the Q2 2026 call reported $175 million. The top line remains driven by Bitcoin price: in Q2, higher production contributed $7.2 million year over year, but a 28% lower average Bitcoin price reduced revenue by $65.9 million. Reported profitability is dominated by non-cash Bitcoin fair-value marks, while the mining base itself improved at $0.04 per kWh and a $27.70 daily cost per petahash.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $813 million with EBITDA of $0 million (0.0% margin), and FY+2 revenue of $1,044 million with EBITDA of $149 million (14.3% margin). The near-term anchor is the current Bitcoin-mining revenue base, while FY+2 assumes the start of AI/HPC-related cash flow as the Long Ridge build progresses.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $907M | $813M | $1.0B |
| YoY Growth | — | −10.4% | +28.4% |
| EBITDA | $627M | $0M | $149M |
| EBITDA Margin | 69.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
No traditional annual revenue or EPS guidance was issued. Management's stated milestones and assumptions include signing at least two AI/HPC tenant leases before year-end 2026; closing Long Ridge after FERC approval, with a FERC response expected 'definitely before year end'; quarterly G&A excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition/integration costs expected to trend lower; and a power portfolio of approximately 4.8 GW after pending transactions and approvals.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- At least two AI/HPC tenant leases are signed by year-end 2026, with disclosed contracted megawatts and named tenants.
- Long Ridge receives FERC approval and closes, adding roughly $144 million annualized EBITDA and a path to 600 MW of AI/critical IT load.
- Matagorda receives ERCOT and interconnection approvals, advancing up to 2 GW of future capacity.
- Starwood converts a first project, validating the illustrative $50–100 million net annualized stabilized cash flow on a 200 MW site.
- G&A excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition/integration costs continues to trend lower toward the underlying Q2 level.
- No AI/HPC lease is signed by year-end, leaving the digital-infrastructure pivot commercially unproven.
- Bitcoin price falls while 54% of holdings are pledged as collateral, forcing deleveraging or further Bitcoin sales.
- Long Ridge FERC approval slips past year-end, delaying the $144 million annualized EBITDA and AI campus build.
- Matagorda fails to secure ERCOT or interconnection approvals and MARA exercises its terminal step-away option.
- Hosted mining contracts expire beginning Q3 2027 before Matagorda or other owned capacity is ready to absorb the hashrate.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months hinge on execution: management expects to sign at least two AI/HPC tenant leases before year-end 2026 and to close Long Ridge after FERC approval. Beyond that, construction at Long Ridge is planned to begin around H1 2027, with initial capacity online in mid-2028; Matagorda power would come online gradually over about two years if ERCOT and interconnection approvals proceed. An Investor Day later in 2026 is expected to provide more detail on the portfolio.
- Before year-end 2026AI/HPC tenant leases — At least 2 leases targeted; tests contracted megawatts and named tenants.
- Before year-end 2026Long Ridge FERC approval — Tests closing, ~$900M debt assumption, and $144M annualized EBITDA.
- Later in 2026Investor Day — Expected portfolio disclosure and strategy review.
- H1 2027Long Ridge construction start — Initial 200 MW AI build begins.
- Q3 2027 – Q1 2028Hosted mining roll-off — Contracts expire; Matagorda must absorb capacity.
- Mid-2028Long Ridge AI capacity online — Initial 200 MW energization and first occupancy.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $656M | $907M | $868M | +38.2% |
| Gross Margin | 14.0% | 31.5% | 0.3% | +1,745bps |
| EBITDA | $733M | $627M | −$10.0B | -14.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 111.7% | 69.1% | 109.8% | 4,260bps |
| Net Income | $541M | −$1.3B | −$2.0B | -342.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$930M | −$1.2B | −$3.4B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)0.3%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)109.8%
- Net Margin (TTM)-234.8%
- ROIC2.8%
- FCF Conversion-134.6%
- SBC / Revenue17.7%
The Company
MARA Holdings is an energy and digital infrastructure company that uses Bitcoin mining as a flexible, energy-responsive workload while developing AI inference and HPC capabilities. The company built a distributed compute platform spanning 19 data centers across 4 continents and expects the power portfolio to reach approximately 4.8 GW after pending transactions. Its AI exposure is strategic but pre-revenue: the Starwood JV is the conversion vehicle, Exaion provides sovereign/enterprise AI cloud, and Vertebra AI and HUM remain early-stage technology initiatives.
MARA owns and operates the majority of its mining portfolio—roughly 70% owned and operated, with less than 30% hosted—and manages sites across Texas, Ohio, Nebraska, and international facilities. The portfolio includes Granbury, described as one of the largest containerized liquid immersion-cooled sites worldwide, and Long Ridge and Matagorda are being added to deepen power control and provide a path from mining to AI/HPC capacity.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The competitive dynamic is defined by power scarcity. Management says the constraint is no longer who can fund compute but who has the power, and argues that peers without a track record still need to build tenant trust. The neighbor read-through validates the power-bottleneck thesis but also shows several peers—IREN, WULF, HIVE—are further along on contracted AI revenue while MARA is still in the pre-lease stage.
- IRENSigned a $3.54B five-year AI cloud contract with NVIDIA; ARR under contract $3.1B with 5 GW secured power.
- WULFQuoted 'The constraint is not GPUs. It is power.'; generating $21M quarterly HPC lease revenue from 60MW Core42 deployment.
- Building its own 1.2 GW gas-fired generation vehicle; cited hyperscaler capex 'nearly $700 billion.'
- HIVEBuzz HPC reached $20M ARR; targeting $100M HPC ARR in 2026.
- AI pipeline but no lease signed yet.
Supply Chain
MARA sits at the intersection of power assets and compute demand: it sources power, land, and cooling, then supplies Bitcoin mining or future AI/HPC capacity.
More on MARA: Earnings recap