ORCL

Oracle

Q4 FY2026 earnings · 2026-06-09$2.00 consensus

Summary

What they do:

Oracle operates the world's largest enterprise database business and the fastest-growing major cloud infrastructure platform (OCI), delivering compute, storage, GPU-accelerated AI services, and the Stargate AI data center partnership with OpenAI/SoftBank spanning 4.5GW+ of planned capacity.

Why they matter:

ORCL is the dark horse of AI infrastructure — OCI cloud infrastructure revenue grew 84% YoY to $4.9B quarterly with AI infrastructure revenue up 243%, backed by $553B in remaining performance obligations and the Stargate partnership that positions Oracle as a hyperscaler-grade AI compute provider alongside AWS, Azure, and GCP.

Recent performance:

Q3 FY2026 (Feb 2026) revenue $17.2B (+22% YoY); OCI cloud infrastructure $4.9B (+84% YoY); RPO $553B (+325% YoY). Stock ~$175, market cap ~$500B. FY2026 capex guided at $50B.

Our Verdict

Play TypeEstablished
Rel. ValueFair

The legacy database giant turned AI infrastructure powerhouse — OCI growing 84% with $553B in RPO and the $300B+ Stargate partnership with OpenAI validates Oracle's transformation, but 30% of total revenue is still legacy database licenses, $50B annual capex is untested at this scale, and the stock at 8x revenue already prices significant AI acceleration into a $500B market cap.

Structural trends

Enterprise database workload migration to cloudStargate-scale AI infrastructure partnershipsmulticloud adoption normalizing Oracle alongside AWS/AzureAI inference and training demand driving OCI consumption

Structural

65

/ 100

Moat

7/10

Enterprise DB lock-in + Stargate + RPO depth

AI Exp.

High

~30% AI

Play Type

Established

AI Growth

~84% YoY

Rel. Value

39

FAIR

PriceLIVE

$163.00

+4.74%

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Market Cap

$468.8B

P/E Ratio

29.3

P/S Ratio

7.3x

52W High

$345.72

52W Low

$121.24

52W Chg

34.4%

Beta

1.60

Supply Chain Dependencies

The Catch

Oracle's fundamental challenge is capital intensity at unprecedented scale. The company has committed $50B in FY2026 capex — roughly 78% of its trailing twelve-month revenue — to build infrastructure for partnerships (primarily Stargate) that haven't yet generated proportional revenue. Oracle has decades of experience running enterprise software at 40%+ operating margins; it has zero experience running infrastructure buildouts at hyperscaler scale. The Stargate partnership with OpenAI is transformational but also concentrating: if OpenAI's compute needs shift (model efficiency improvements, competitive dynamics with Microsoft/Azure) or Stargate deployment faces regulatory/construction delays, Oracle faces a capital cycle mismatch — $50B spent, revenue deferred. Meanwhile, the legacy database business continues its slow decline as enterprises adopt PostgreSQL and cloud-native alternatives, creating a ticking clock on Oracle's transformation from software margins to infrastructure margins.

If They Win

If Oracle executes the Stargate buildout, scales OCI to $30B+ annual cloud infrastructure revenue, and converts even a fraction of the $553B RPO into recurring revenue, the company becomes the fifth hyperscaler — the enterprise cloud platform that owns the world's largest AI training infrastructure alongside the world's most widely deployed enterprise database. In this scenario, Oracle generates $100B+ in total annual revenue (up from $64B) with OCI comprising 40-50% of the mix, operating margins stabilize at 30%+ as infrastructure scales, and the Stargate partnership becomes a permanent competitive advantage that no other cloud provider can replicate. The stock trades at $350-400 as the market values Oracle at $1T+ — a recognition that the 47-year-old database company executed the most ambitious infrastructure transformation in enterprise technology history, turning Larry Ellison's bet on AI infrastructure into a new pillar of the company alongside the Oracle Database franchise.

Not financial advice. All scores generated via AI algorithms using public data.