Earnings Recap — Q2 FY2026
CY Q3 2026 · Reported August 4, 2026 · Beat 6 of last 7 quarters
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Duke's accelerating ESA signings and $5–10 billion of incremental capital upside underscore the scale of AI-driven electricity demand in its territories. The company's expanded gas turbine framework with GE Vernova and the delivery of the first turbine signal a ramp in the AI infrastructure supply chain. Management's emphasis on customer protection and regulatory settlements may shape how other utilities structure large-load contracts.
Adjusted EPS of $1.43 beat consensus, driven by Electric Utilities growth from customer additions and infrastructure investments, partially offset by higher depreciation and interest. The company signed an additional 0.2 GW of ESAs, bringing total to 7.8 GW, and announced a comprehensive settlement in the DEC rate case with a 9.8% ROE and 53% equity structure. They also introduced the Customer Protection Plus commitment and signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge. The first GE Vernova turbine for Person County was delivered in July, and the company is on track to add 15 GW of generation by 2031.
Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $6.55–$6.80 and the 5%–7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030, expressing confidence in delivering in the top half of that range beginning in 2028. They expect the remaining 15.4 GW pipeline to convert to ESAs by the first half of 2027, with $5–10 billion of incremental capital upside to the current 5-year plan, particularly in Indiana and Florida. They are evaluating a potential genco structure in Indiana to address affordability concerns and provide additional customer protection. New nuclear remains contingent on derisking financial risks, with no timeline committed. FFO to debt target of 14.5% for 2026 and 15% longer term remains on track.
“We are also reaffirming our long-term earnings per share growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030, and we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs.”
on Growth outlook
“Our contracts ensure that large users of energy pay the cost of serving their facilities, and these projects are expected to deliver billions of dollars in benefits for existing customers over time.”
on Customer protection
“We are taking a proactive approach to equity funding, locking in attractive pricing today to derisk our future equity needs.”
on Balance sheet
How are you thinking about the 3Q update? Is there a point where we could see some upward pressure in the CAGR?
Harry Sideris reaffirmed confidence in the top half of the 5%–7% range starting in 2028, noting the pipeline is advancing but negotiations are complex. He said they typically update EPS growth in Q4, but would update earlier if something material changes.
How much of the $5B–$10B incremental capital could make its way into the 5-year plan roll-forward?
Brian Savoy clarified that the $5B–$10B is incremental to the current 5-year plan and would be triggered when ESAs are signed and generation/transmission is modeled. It would be within the remaining 4 years of the plan.
Can you expand on how you see new nuclear coming together and set expectations for the road ahead?
Harry Sideris said they are focused on maximizing existing nuclear (uprates and license extensions) and are working with government, state officials, and hyperscalers to offset financial risks for new nuclear. They will not move forward until risks are mitigated, with no timeline committed.