Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Amrize is a North American building-solutions company spun off in June 2025. It supplies cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and roofing and wall systems—from foundation to rooftop. Its materials go into data-center site work, foundations, structural concrete, surrounding infrastructure, and high-spec commercial roofing. Demand from data centers, energy, advanced manufacturing, and infrastructure modernization reaches the business through both the Building Materials and Building Envelope segments.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $11.9B |
| Revenue Growth | +2.5% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 23.2% |
| Net Debt | $5.6B |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 4 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Q2 2026 revenue growth of 8.6% with organic growth of 6.7%, led by above-market cement and aggregates volumes.
- More than 30 data-center projects supplied in 2025; management says the footprint can serve over 90% of the 300+ planned North American data centers.
- Building Envelope revenue turned from -11.8% in Q4 2025 to +9.4% in Q2 2026.
- ASPIRE program targets about $80 million of savings in 2026 and $250 million through 2028 against a $7 billion third-party cost base.
- Balance sheet remains investment-grade at 1.7x leverage with roughly $4 billion of total liquidity.
What We’re Watching
- Q4 2026 price-over-cost turn—management’s key margin inflection; if oil, freight, or chemical costs stay elevated, it slips to 2027 or beyond.
- Cement pricing progression into H2; Q2 was still -0.2% year over year after guidance was cut to flat or up low single digits.
- Residential roofing sell-through versus distributor stocking; part of the record Q2 was distributor inventory build.
- Malarkey plant commissioning expected end of 2026; tests the Midwest/East residential shingle expansion.
The demand side of the thesis is strengthening: volumes, projects, and revenue are coming through as management described. The margin side is under pressure from oil-driven cost inflation and pricing lags, which forced a lower adjusted EBITDA guide. The open question is whether the Q4 2026 price-over-cost turn and assumed Q4 cost moderation arrive as management expects.
Earnings
Amrize reported Q2 2026 revenue growth of 8.6% and organic growth of 6.7%. Adjusted EBITDA was $986 million, up 5.8%, with net income up 14.4%. Building Materials revenue was $2.4 billion, up 8.2%, while Building Envelope revenue was $1.0 billion, up 9.4%.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $2.8B | $2.1B | +4.7% |
| Gross margin | 9.7% | 26.8% | 10.7% | -100bps |
| EBITDA | $152M | $722M | $198M | −23.2% |
| EPS | $-0.21 | $0.54 | $-0.16 | +33.2% |
| Building Materials revenue | $2.4B | $1.5B | n/a | +8.2% YoY |
| Building Envelope revenue | $1.0B | $678M | n/a | +9.4% YoY |
If we didn't have that geopolitical disturbance starting in March, we would have very healthy EBITDA margins for the second quarter.— Jan Jenisch, Chairman and CEO, Aug 7, 2026
Management tone: Management shifted from emphasizing expected demand acceleration on the Q4 2025 call to describing delivered demand and directly addressing oil-driven margin pressure on the Q2 2026 call. The CFO added a granular cost bridge and broke the EBITDA guidance change into three roughly equal factors.
Management Guidance
Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion, while revising adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion. The company assumes cement pricing flat to up low single digits, residential roofing volumes up high single digits, and Building Envelope price-over-cost positive in Q4 2026. It expects Q3 costs to remain elevated and Q4 to moderate.
Trajectory
Reported revenue is moving higher as volumes and price realization build; Q2 2026 revenue growth was 8.6% with organic growth of 6.7%. Margins are compressing, though: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose only 5.8% year over year as oil-driven freight, diesel, and raw-material costs and price lags weighed on the quarter. Management expects price-over-cost to improve through the second half and turn positive in Q4 2026.
The Model
The model’s locked projections are FY+1 revenue of $12,600 million and EBITDA of $3,314 million (26.3% margin), rising to FY+2 revenue of $13,550 million and EBITDA of $3,753 million (27.7% margin). The near-term revenue anchor is management’s raised FY2026 revenue range and current volume momentum; FY+2 builds on continued commercial, infrastructure, and data-center demand plus ASPIRE margin expansion.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.8B | $12.6B | $13.6B |
| YoY Growth | — | +6.6% | +7.5% |
| EBITDA | $2.8B | $3.3B | $3.8B |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.7% | 26.3% | 27.7% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 3.3% above analyst consensus.
Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion, while revising adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion. The company assumes cement pricing flat to up low single digits, residential roofing volumes up high single digits, and Building Envelope price-over-cost positive in Q4 2026. It expects Q3 costs to remain elevated and Q4 to moderate.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Q4 2026 price-over-cost turns positive and holds into 2027, confirming the cost-timing view.
- Cement pricing returns to clear low-single-digit growth in H2, restoring the original Building Materials pricing assumption.
- Residential roofing strength proves to be sell-through, not distributor stocking, making the raised high-single-digit guide durable.
- Commercial-to-roofing conversion accelerates after the 12-to-18-month lag management described.
- Additional M&A closes on the PB Materials pattern, adding reserves and network density in Texas and other growth markets.
- Q4 cost moderation fails to materialize; freight, diesel, and raw-material costs stay elevated.
- Cement pricing stagnates or rolls over after guidance was cut to flat or up low single digits.
- Distributor consolidation in roofing creates channel conflict for Amrize's distributor partners.
- Residential roofing strength reverses if Q2 reflected distributor inventory stocking rather than durable demand.
- Data-center construction demand decelerates if hyperscaler capex or project timing shifts.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months turn on whether price realization closes the cost gap. Management expects price-over-cost to improve through the second half and turn positive in Q4 2026, with cost moderation beginning in Q4. Capacity projects are scheduled through 2026—including Malarkey commissioning expected at year-end—while Midlothian, Exshaw, and Saint-Constant remain underway. Management also says the M&A pipeline is healthy and growing.
- Q3 2026Q3 earnings and price realization — Tests H2 price realization and whether Q3 costs stayed elevated as assumed.
- Q4 2026Price-over-cost turns positive — Management's named margin inflection; validates the cost-timing thesis.
- End of 2026Malarkey shingle plant commissioning — Tests Indiana residential shingle capacity and Midwest/East expansion.
- 2026Capacity projects remain underway — Midlothian, Exshaw, Saint-Constant, and quarry projects progress toward commercialization.
- 2026M&A pipeline execution — Management expects more M&A; next deal tests the Texas network logic.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $11.8B | $11.9B | +0.9% |
| Gross Margin | 25.1% | 24.3% | 25.4% | 80bps |
| EBITDA | $3.1B | $2.8B | $6.7B | -8.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 26.2% | 23.7% | 23.2% | 245bps |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.2B | -16.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.4B | $3.3B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)25.4%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)23.2%
- Net Margin (TTM)9.7%
- ROIC7.8%
- FCF Conversion47.8%
- SBC / Revenue0.1%
The Company
Amrize is a North American building-solutions company spun off in June 2025. It operates two segments: Building Materials—cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and other construction materials—and Building Envelope—roofing and wall systems, insulation, waterproofing, and adhesives, tapes and sealants. Its products feed data-center site work, foundations, structural concrete, and high-performance commercial roofing.
The company operates more than 1,000 sites and facilities, including 18 cement plants, 273 ready-mix concrete plants, 467 aggregates operations, and 50 asphalt operations. Building Envelope operates 51 facilities across North America—34 manufacturing sites, 12 warehouses, and 5 R&D centers. Operations are in the United States, Canada, Colombia, Switzerland, and Jamaica.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Amrize's 10-K names Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH as its principal U.S. competitors, with Carlisle, CertainTeed, GAF, Johns Manville, Owens Corning and RPM competing across North America products. Management describes the company's footprint and distribution network as leading for reaching planned North American data centers, but the material also notes ample alternative suppliers of cement, aggregates, and roofing materials exist.
- CRHNamed in 10-K as a principal U.S. competitor.
- RPMNamed in 10-K as a principal competitor across North America products.
Supply Chain
Amrize is a heavy-materials producer and roofing supplier to construction projects. The only customer named directly in supplied transcripts is Amazon; the 10-K extracts do not name raw-material suppliers.
More on AMRZ: Earnings recap