Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Amrize is a North America-focused building solutions company. It sells the physical materials that go into construction — cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, roofing and wall systems. Its role in the AI build-out is indirect: it supplies materials to the contractors who build, rather than anything that computes. Data centers are one of the end markets management names, alongside energy, water and transport infrastructure, and management frames that demand as long-duration.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $12.2B |
| Revenue Growth | +5.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 23.3% |
| Net Debt | $5.9B |
| Earnings Beats | 1 of 4 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Q2 2026 revenue grew 8.6% y/y with 6.7% organic growth; cement volumes rose 5% and aggregates volumes 6.5%.
- Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $12.5B-$12.7B while holding aggregates pricing at up mid-single digits on a freight-adjusted basis.
- Management cites more than 300 planned data centers across North America and says its network can serve over 90% of them, after supplying 30+ in 2025.
- ASPIRE delivered $29 million of savings in Q2 2026, on track for about $80 million in 2026 and $250 million through 2028.
- The company holds $729 million of cash and $4 billion of total available liquidity at 1.7x leverage, funding a $900 million capex plan and $502 million of shareholder returns in Q2.
What We’re Watching
- FY2026 costs are guided $140 million to $170 million higher against only $60 million to $80 million of price; management says fuel surcharges have not fully offset incremental freight.
- The second-half recovery rests on management's assumption that costs stay elevated in Q3 and moderate in Q4 — a checkable base case that an analyst challenged on the call.
- Cement pricing was cut to flat or up low single digits for the year after a Q2 print of -0.2% y/y; the CFO attributes part of the shortfall to an unquantified geographical mix impact.
- Building Envelope adjusted EBITDA was still down 5.2% y/y in Q2, and the previously targeted price-cost-neutral quarter was not confirmed.
The volume side of the thesis is strengthening: revenue guidance was raised, volumes are running above the market, and management describes a large planned pipeline of data centers. The margin side is weakening: EBITDA guidance was cut in the same quarter, and every remaining fix is a timing fix. The open question is whether price over cost actually turns positive in the fourth quarter of 2026, or whether cost inflation proves more durable than management's base case.
Earnings
Amrize reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $3,494 million, up 8.6% year over year, with a gross margin of 28.4%. Organic growth was 6.7%, which management called industry-leading. The standout was residential roofing, which management said delivered the highest revenue quarter in company history, while cement volumes rose 5% and aggregates volumes 6.5%.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B | $2.2B | $3.2B | +8.5% |
| Gross margin | 28.4% | 9.7% | 30.0% | -160bps |
| EBITDA | $967M | $152M | $891M | +8.5% |
| EPS | $0.86 | $-0.21 | $0.78 | +11.3% |
| Building Materials revenue | $2.4B | $1.5B | n/a | +8.2% |
| Building Envelope revenue | $1B | $678M | n/a | +9.4% |
We are not happy with this. And now we have a sequential price increase 2.1%.— Jan Jenisch, CEO, 2026-08-07
Management tone: Management revised revenue guidance up and adjusted EBITDA guidance down in the same release, and framed the shortfall as timing and cost rather than demand. The CEO said the company was not happy with the result and declined to attribute the margin shortfall to project mix, pointing to cost instead. Under questioning, the CFO gave a decomposition of the EBITDA change as roughly three equal parts. Management guided volume growth to moderate in the second half and said price over cost should turn positive in the fourth quarter.
Management Guidance
For FY2026, management guides revenue of $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion. Cement pricing is guided to be flat or up low single digits, aggregates pricing up mid-single digits on a freight-adjusted basis, commercial roofing volumes at low single-digit growth and residential roofing volumes up high single digits. Costs are guided $140 million to $170 million higher, with the explicit assumption that elevated levels continue in Q3 and moderate in Q4. Net interest expense is guided at about $340 million, capex at $900 million and ASPIRE savings at about $80 million in 2026.
Trajectory
Revenue is growing but margins have compressed. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $3,494 million against $3,220 million a year earlier, and gross margin fell to 28.4% from 30.0%. The first quarter was softer still: $2,178 million of revenue at a 9.7% gross margin, against 10.7% a year before. Management attributes the compression to oil-driven freight, diesel and raw-material inflation outrunning price, and guides price over cost to improve in the second half, turn positive in Q4 2026 and improve into 2027. Volume growth is guided to moderate in the second half on tougher comparisons.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $12,650 million and EBITDA of $3,162 million, a 25.0% margin, and FY+2 revenue of $13,550 million and EBITDA of $3,523 million, a 26.0% margin. FY+1 sits within management's guided FY2026 revenue range of $12.5B-$12.7B. The near-term anchor is above-market volume growth plus the price increases announced for July and August; FY+2 assumes those price gains hold, ASPIRE savings accumulate toward $250 million through 2028, and cost inflation moderates as management expects.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.8B | $12.7B | $13.6B |
| YoY Growth | — | +7.1% | +7.1% |
| EBITDA | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.5B |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.7% | 25.0% | 26.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 3.3% above analyst consensus.
For FY2026, management guides revenue of $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion. Cement pricing is guided to be flat or up low single digits, aggregates pricing up mid-single digits on a freight-adjusted basis, commercial roofing volumes at low single-digit growth and residential roofing volumes up high single digits. Costs are guided $140 million to $170 million higher, with the explicit assumption that elevated levels continue in Q3 and moderate in Q4. Net interest expense is guided at about $340 million, capex at $900 million and ASPIRE savings at about $80 million in 2026.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Price over cost turns positive in the fourth quarter of 2026 on schedule, validating both the cost-moderation assumption and the price-realization mechanics.
- Volumes keep running above market, with aggregates volume growth continuing to accelerate on a two-year stack while pricing holds at up mid-single digits.
- Data-center and mega-project demand converts into reported volumes, and a disclosed data-center revenue share would make the exposure modellable.
- The Malarkey shingles plant commissions on time at the end of 2026 and distribution into Midwest and Eastern markets begins.
- M&A continues at the 2026 cadence — PB Materials closed in the first half and Rapid Redi-Mix on July 31 — with management's stated value discipline.
- Costs stay elevated into the fourth quarter and beyond, and the guidance is missed from an already-lowered base.
- Cement pricing turns negative for the full year rather than flat, with the unquantified geographical mix impact proving structural.
- Building Envelope price over cost stays negative past the fourth quarter, a second consecutive year of a recovery described as one quarter away.
- Residential roofing volumes prove to be channel fill rather than end demand, and a destock leaves the high-single-digit guide unachievable.
- Commercial roofing demand outside data centers fails to accelerate.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the pivotal test is the fourth-quarter 2026 price-over-cost inflection. Management also points to price increases effective in July and August, ASPIRE savings trending toward about $80 million this year, and a Malarkey shingles plant targeted for commissioning at the end of 2026. On demand, it cites more than 300 planned data centers across North America and named projects in West Texas, Illinois, Arizona and Louisiana. M&A is expected to continue from what management calls a healthy and growing pipeline.
- Q3 2026Next quarterly report — Tests above-market volumes and realized Q3 pricing.
- Q4 2026Price-over-cost crossover — Management expects price over cost to turn positive.
- End 2026Malarkey plant commissioning — Indiana shingles plant targeted; opens Midwest and East.
- FY2026ASPIRE savings target — About $80 million of savings targeted for the year.
- 6-12 monthsMore M&A — Management expects more deals from its growing pipeline.
- MultiyearInfrastructure successor bill — Build America 250 Act would extend the civil tailwind.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $11.8B | $12.2B | +0.9% |
| Gross Margin | 25.1% | 24.3% | 25.0% | 80bps |
| EBITDA | $3.0B | $2.8B | $2.8B | -7.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 25.9% | 23.7% | 23.3% | 217bps |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.2B | -16.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.3B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)25.0%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)23.3%
- Net Margin (TTM)9.9%
- ROIC7.9%
- FCF Conversion46.6%
- SBC / Revenue0.1%
The Company
Amrize is a North America-focused building solutions company that sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, roofing systems and other building products. The 10-K describes the offering as a broad range of advanced building solutions from foundation to rooftop. The physical products matter to the AI build-out because data centers, and the power, water and transport infrastructure around them, consume cement, aggregates and concrete as they are built — and commercial roofing later, on a lag management puts at 12 to 18 months. The company does not disclose a data-center revenue share.
Amrize operates through two segments. Building Materials covers cement and aggregates plus downstream ready-mix concrete, asphalt and other construction materials. Building Envelope covers roofing and wall systems — single-ply membranes, insulation, shingles, sheathing, waterproofing and protective coatings. The company runs more than 1,000 sites and facilities, including 18 cement plants, 143 terminals, 273 ready-mix concrete plants and 467 aggregates operations. Building Envelope has 51 facilities, 34 of them manufacturing plants. Management describes a local-to-local model: it invests domestically to serve local builders rather than importing.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 10-K names Amrize's principal U.S. cement and materials competitors as Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH, as well as numerous local and regional players. For roofing and envelope, it names Carlisle, CertainTeed, GAF, Johns Manville, Owens Corning and RPM. The products are commodity specifications available from named competitors at the same job site. The data-center demand story is contested: peers including CRH, Martin Marietta and Knife River describe similar positioning.
- CRHNamed in the 10-K as a principal U.S. cement and materials competitor; not otherwise discussed.
- CemexNamed in the 10-K as a principal U.S. cement and materials competitor; not otherwise discussed.
- Heidelberg MaterialsNamed in the 10-K as a principal U.S. cement and materials competitor; not otherwise discussed.
- Owens CorningNamed in the 10-K as a principal North American roofing and envelope competitor; not otherwise discussed.
- Named in the 10-K as a principal North American roofing and envelope competitor; not otherwise discussed.
Supply Chain
Amrize sits downstream in the construction chain: it buys energy, fuel and raw materials, and sells cement, aggregates, concrete and roofing to contractors and distributors. One customer, Amazon, is named in the supply-chain wiring; no customer concentration is disclosed.
More on AMRZ: Earnings recap