Oshkosh Corp (OSK) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure

——Mkt cap — · 52-wk —–— · YTD — · delayed
Updated Aug 12, 2026Q2 FY2026 reviewed
Oshkosh Corp designs and manufactures aerial work platforms and other vehicles used in data-center construction.
Access orders $1.5B
Backlog reached $2B; full-year Access revenue now expected to grow vs 2025.
FCF +$348M
Q2 free cash flow rose from $49M; full-year guide held at $550–650M.
NGDV >35M miles
Fleet miles up from >20M in Q1; Q2 delivery revenue about $262M.
FY26 EPS cut to ~$11.00
Fire truck throughput slowed; 2026 shipments now expected below prior plan.
The Buildout Takeaway
Access demand is strengthening on data-center and mega-project construction, but the year now hinges on fire-truck production execution and a back-half NGDV order. The headline is a two-speed business: Access improving while Vocational slips.
Analyst coverage
37 analysts·22 Buy14 Hold1 Sell
Median target$178  Range $138–$197 · 7 estimates
Management guidance
FY2026 adjusted EPS ~$11.00 · Free cash flow $550–650 million · Access revenue growth versus 2025 · Vocational margin below low end of 16–18% a little
Important: The Buildout is a data analytics platform. Content is generated by algorithms and AI agents using public filings, earnings transcripts, and market data. This is not personalized investment advice.
Our View

The Verdict

Oshkosh designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles and equipment across construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse, defense, and delivery. Its Access segment produces aerial work platforms and telehandlers bought by rental companies and contractors for large construction sites, including data centers — the company's clearest link to the AI buildout. Vocational and Transport serve municipal, airport, and defense customers, with an early-stage portfolio of direct AI-enabled products such as McNeilus IQ and an autonomous airport ground support robot.

Market Cap—
Revenue (TTM)$10.6B
Revenue Growth+2.2%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)9.8%
Net Debt$699M
Earnings Beats4 of 7
P/E (TTM)—
EV/EBITDA (TTM)—

What We Like

  • Access orders exceeded $1.5B in Q1 and held at $1.5B in Q2, with book-to-bill of 1.6x and 1.1x; backlog reached $2B.
  • Management raised full-year Access revenue guidance from a modest decline to growth versus 2025.
  • NGDV fleet surpassed 35 million miles, up from over 20 million in Q1; Q2 delivery vehicle revenue reached about $262M, nearly half of Transport sales.
  • Q2 free cash flow was $348M versus $49M a year ago; full-year free cash flow guidance held at $550–650M.
  • Defense received $142M in FMTV A2 orders and $92M in ROGUE-Fires orders in Q2; new FMTV contract pricing described as materially higher.

What We’re Watching

  • Fire-truck production ramp: sequential increases expected in Q3 and Q4 2026, but 2026 shipments are now expected lower than previously planned.
  • Additional USPS NGDV order is planned for Q4 2026, with Q3 possible; Q2 had no order.
  • Transport underlying profitability: Q2 operating income of $16M included a $17M one-time NGDV item, leaving the segment roughly breakeven before it.
  • Refuse unit backlog at March 31 was down 43.9% year over year; management points to 2027 for normalization.
Bottom Line

The thesis is intact but now more execution-dependent. Access demand has strengthened, while the fire-truck manufacturing transformation slipped enough to cut EPS guidance. The key open question is whether the Q3/Q4 production ramp and the expected Q4 NGDV order arrive as planned.

Next upThe next discrete catalyst is the additional USPS NGDV order, with management's planning assumption at Q4 2026 and Q3 possible. Q3 fire-truck production actuals will test the beginning of the sequential ramp.
Last Quarter — Q2 FY2026

Earnings Beat

Oshkosh reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $2.9 billion, up 6.7% year over year, with gross margin of 16.5%. Adjusted EPS was $2.87 versus $3.41 a year ago. Free cash flow was $348 million, up from $49 million in the prior-year quarter.

MetricQ2 FY2026Q1 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Revenue$2.9B$2.3B$2.7B+6.7%
Gross margin16.5%12.8%19.2%-270bps
EBITDA$305M$143M$348M−12.1%
EPS$0.05$0.09$3.16−98.5%
Access book-to-bill1.1x1.6xn/amore than double year-ago
Mega projects are continuing to drive demand for our access equipment, we are working to ensure we have the inventory and production flexibility to support the demand.— John Pfeifer, July 28, 2026

Management tone: Management's tone shifted from confident but sober in Q1 to more candid and realistic in the second quarter. They cut full-year adjusted EPS guidance, acknowledged 2026 fire-truck shipments would be lower than previously planned, while citing the Access recovery and a back-half ramp.

Management Guidance

Management guided full-year adjusted EPS to approximately $11.00, down from approximately $11.50, with the reduction attributed to fire-truck throughput. Free cash flow guidance was unchanged at $550–650 million. Access full-year revenue is now expected to grow versus 2025. Vocational margin is expected below the low end of 16–18% a little. Transport margin is expected to improve in the back half on the NGDV ramp, past fixed-price contract transition, and an expected additional NGDV order. Q4 is expected to be stronger than Q3; management accepted Q3 could be flat to down year over year.

Business Trajectory

Trajectory

Revenue recovered sharply in Q2 FY2026 to $2.9 billion, up 6.7% year over year after a flat Q1. Gross margin improved sequentially to 16.5% from 12.8% in Q1, but EBITDA margin remained below the prior-year quarter. The improvement is led by Access order strength and NGDV scaling, while fire-truck throughput and refuse weakness weigh on Vocational.

Revenue & Margin Trajectory
RevenueGross margin$0$1.0B$2.0B$1.8B$1.2B$1.6B$2.0B$2.0B$1.6B$1.9B$2.2B$2.1B$1.8B$2.0B$2.4B$2.2B$1.7B$1.8B$1.6B$1.8B$1.6B$1.9B$2.2B$2.1B$1.8B$1.9B$2.1B$2.1B$2.2B$2.3B$2.4B$2.5B$2.5B$2.5B$2.8B$2.7B$2.6B$2.3B$2.7B$2.7B$2.7B$2.3B$2.9B17%16%Q3'16Q4Q1'17Q2Q3Q4Q1'18Q2Q3Q4Q1'19Q2Q3Q4Q1'20Q2Q3Q4Q1'21Q2Q3Q4Q1'22Q2Q3Q4Q1'23Q2Q3Q4Q1'24Q2Q3Q4Q1'25Q2Q3Q4Q1'26Q2
RevenueGross margin$0$1.0B$2.0B$1.8B$1.2B$1.6B$2.0B$2.0B$1.6B$1.9B$2.2B$2.1B$1.8B$2.0B$2.4B$2.2B$1.7B$1.8B$1.6B$1.8B$1.6B$1.9B$2.2B$2.1B$1.8B$1.9B$2.1B$2.1B$2.2B$2.3B$2.4B$2.5B$2.5B$2.5B$2.8B$2.7B$2.6B$2.3B$2.7B$2.7B$2.7B$2.3B$2.9B17%16%Q3'16Q4Q1'17Q2Q3Q4Q1'18Q2Q3Q4Q1'19Q2Q3Q4Q1'20Q2Q3Q4Q1'21Q2Q3Q4Q1'22Q2Q3Q4Q1'23Q2Q3Q4Q1'24Q2Q3Q4Q1'25Q2Q3Q4Q1'26Q2
Gross margin as reported.
Share Price — 12 Months
$50$100$150$052-wk high $177Aug '25NovFeb '26MayAug '26
52-week range $119–$177.
Share Price — 12 Months
$50$100$150$052-wk high $177Aug '25NovFeb '26MayAug '26
52-week range $119–$177.
The Numbers

The Model

The model projects FY+1 revenue of $11,090 million and EBITDA of $1,220 million (11.0% margin), rising to FY+2 revenue of $12,350 million and EBITDA of $1,494 million (12.1% margin). Near-term is anchored by Access order strength and NGDV delivery volume, while FY+2 incorporates fire-truck throughput recovery and defense repricing.

Revenue & EBITDA Projections
REVENUE$10.4B$11.1B$12.3BFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)EBITDA & MARGIN$1.2B$1.2B$1.5B12.1%FY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)
REVENUE$10.4B$11.1B$12.3BFY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)EBITDA & MARGIN$1.2B$1.2B$1.5B12.1%FY25FY+1 (E)FY+2 (E)
Solid bars are reported actuals; outlined bars are model projections — not company guidance.
MetricFY2025Next FY (E)Following FY (E)
Revenue$10.4B$11.1B$12.3B
YoY Growth—+6.4%+11.4%
EBITDA$1.2B$1.2B$1.5B
EBITDA Margin11.2%11.0%12.1%

Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 5.2% above analyst consensus.

Management guided full-year adjusted EPS to approximately $11.00, down from approximately $11.50, with the reduction attributed to fire-truck throughput. Free cash flow guidance was unchanged at $550–650 million. Access full-year revenue is now expected to grow versus 2025. Vocational margin is expected below the low end of 16–18% a little. Transport margin is expected to improve in the back half on the NGDV ramp, past fixed-price contract transition, and an expected additional NGDV order. Q4 is expected to be stronger than Q3; management accepted Q3 could be flat to down year over year.

What Could Go Right — and Wrong

What good looks like
  • Access demand broadens beyond mega projects as private non-residential construction recovers, extending order strength.
  • Fire-truck high-flow transformation delivers planned Q3/Q4 production increases, lifting Vocational margin toward 16–18%.
  • Additional NGDV order arrives in Q4 2026, supporting Transport margin recognition and revenue visibility.
  • Defense contracts convert: FMTV new-contract pricing is expected to benefit margins in H2 2026, and FMTV low-velocity air drop production is expected to grow in H2 2026.
  • Refuse market normalizes in 2027, improving Vocational mix.
What could go wrong
  • Fire-truck material-flow transformation slips again, pushing throughput and margin recovery into 2027.
  • NGDV order is delayed beyond Q4, leaving Transport dependent on low-margin fixed-price contracts.
  • Mega-project or data-center construction slows before private non-residential recovers, weakening Access demand.
  • Transport underlying profitability remains weak absent the $17M one-time NGDV item; back-half ramp fails.
  • Refuse backlog decline of 43.9% year over year extends, compounding Vocational mix pressure.
What’s Next

Looking Ahead

The next 12 months turn on execution. Management expects sequential fire-truck production increases in Q3 and Q4 2026 and into 2027, completion of the bulk of the $150 million capacity investment by end of 2026, and an additional USPS NGDV order in Q4 2026 with Q3 possible. Access full-year revenue is expected to grow versus 2025, while AeroTech capacity additions are weighted to early 2027. The 2028 Investor Day targets remain the long-term anchor.

Catalysts
  • Q3 FY2026Fire-truck production ramp — Sequential production increase expected in Q3.
  • Q3 FY2026Possible NGDV order — Management says Q3 is possible; planning assumption is Q4.
  • Q4 FY2026Additional NGDV order — Planning assumption for the next USPS order.
  • Q4 FY2026Fire-truck production increase — Second sequential step expected in Q4.
  • End of 2026Fire-truck capacity completion — Bulk of $150M investment completed.
  • Early 2027AeroTech capacity — Capacity additions weighted to early 2027.
Numbers

Financials

Annual Summary

MetricFY2024FY2025TTMYoY
Revenue$10.7B$10.4B$10.6B-2.9%
Gross Margin18.4%17.4%15.8%90bps
EBITDA$1.2B$1.2B$8.0B-3.9%
EBITDA Margin11.3%11.2%9.8%12bps
Net Income$681M$647M$556M-5.0%
Free Cash Flow$269M$604M$4.0B—
Net Cash————

Key Ratios (Trailing)

Valuation
  • P/E TTM—
  • EV/EBITDA TTM—
  • EV/Revenue TTM—
  • Price/FCF TTM—
Profitability
  • Gross Margin (TTM)15.8%
  • EBITDA Margin (TTM)9.8%
  • Net Margin (TTM)5.2%
  • ROIC12.1%
  • FCF Conversion111.0%
  • SBC / Revenue0.4%
Reference

The Company

Oshkosh is a global industrial technology company that designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles and equipment across construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse collection, defense, and delivery. Its Access brands include JLG, SkyTrak, and Jerr-Dan, making aerial work platforms and telehandlers; Vocational includes Pierce fire apparatus and McNeilus refuse vehicles; Transport is the Oshkosh Defense business plus the USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle. The data-center buildout reaches Oshkosh mainly through Access equipment bought by rental companies and contractors for large construction sites.

The company operates plants in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida, Oregon, South Carolina, Quebec, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, with Access production clustered in Pennsylvania and a UK site. It is the sole-source supplier for several key DoD vehicle platforms and holds a USPS contract for up to 165,000 vehicles over 10 years. It is executing a $150 million fire-truck manufacturing transformation from bay build to high-flow production lines.

Business Segments

Access
Original FY26 revenue guide ~$4.2B
Aerial work platforms and telehandlers under JLG, SkyTrak, and Jerr-Dan. Demand is driven by mega projects including data centers.
Growth driver: Access orders and backlog growth
Vocational
Original FY26 revenue guide ~$4.2B
Fire apparatus, airport ground support, refuse vehicles, and concrete mixers. Fire-truck transformation is the key execution item.
Growth driver: High-flow fire-truck production ramp and airport modernization demand.
Transport
Original FY26 revenue guide ~$2.5B
Oshkosh Defense tactical wheeled vehicles and the USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program.
Growth driver: NGDV production ramp and defense contract repricing.

Competitive Landscape

Oshkosh competes across fragmented specialty vehicle markets. In aerial work platforms it faces Genie/Terex, Skyjack/Linamar, Haulotte, XCMG, and Dingli; in fire apparatus, Rosenbauer and REV Group; in defense, AM General, BAE Systems, General Dynamics, and others; in delivery vehicles, Utilimaster, Morgan Olson, and Rivian. The company's 10-K discloses that it is the sole-source supplier for several key vehicle platforms to the DoD.

  • Terex
    Named in 10-K as competitor in aerial work platforms and refuse; peer read-through notes Terex expanding fire truck capacity 35% at Ocala.
  • Rosenbauer
    Named in filings; not discussed.
  • REV Group
    Named in filings; not discussed.
  • Rivian
    Named in filings; not discussed.
  • BAE Systems
    Named in filings; not discussed.
Competitors are from the 10-K disclosure list in the intel file; Terex expansion detail from the neighbor read-through in the source material.

Supply Chain

Oshkosh sits between component and material suppliers and rental, construction, municipal, and government customers. The wiring dataset infers rental and contractor channels but those relationships are not confirmed in OSK filings. No neighbor in the supplied read-through is shown naming Oshkosh by name.

Supplier
Nucor
Steel
Supplier
Texas Instruments
Electronics/semiconductors
Supplier
Flex
Contract manufacturing
Supplier
Union Pacific
Logistics/transport
→
Sole-source DoD vehicle platforms
OSK
Designs and manufactures across owned plants; executing $150M high-flow fire truck transformation.
→
U.S. government/DoD
~22% of Q1 2026 sales
Sole-source supplier on several key vehicle platforms
USPS
up to 165,000 vehicles over 10 years
NGDV program; delivery fleet >35M miles
Rental/construction contractors
JLG aerial work platforms and telehandlers (inferred)

Analysis updated Aug 12, 2026, reviewing Q2 FY2026. Prices delayed. Built with The Buildout’s published methodology. Not investment advice. No positions held. © The Buildout 2026.

More on OSK: Earnings recap