United Rentals, Inc. (URI) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
United Rentals rents construction, aerial, industrial, power, and specialty equipment, and sells related supplies and services, to construction and industrial customers across North America with smaller footprints in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. In the AI buildout, the link is indirect: data center construction, behind-the-meter power, and semiconductor fab work pull demand for earthmoving, aerial, temporary power, HVAC, matting, and site-access equipment. Management frames data centers as one part of a broader large-project cycle, and the company does not disclose an AI-specific revenue split.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $16.8B |
| Revenue Growth | +6.9% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 43.9% |
| Net Debt | $15.3B |
| Earnings Beats | 2 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- World's largest equipment rental company; 1,665 North America rental locations as of July 22, 2026.
- Rental fleet total OEC of $22.5B supports complex multi-site project work.
- Power vertical is more than 10% of total business and has grown double-digit organically for 10 years.
- Specialty rental revenue grew 25% year over year in Q2 2026, with all seven specialty lines double-digit.
- Largest customer was 1% or less of revenue in Q1 2026 and each of the last three full years.
What We’re Watching
- Delivery and repositioning cost management through the back half of 2026 is still a test after 2025's $115M excess-cost problem.
- Ancillary and re-rent grew nearly 28% in Q2, roughly 3x OER, with limited incremental margin.
- Computed criticality read says the AI buildout would proceed unimpeded without URI, with ample rental capacity among competitors.
- S&P rating action within the next 12 months could move the company from high yield to investment grade.
The operational thesis is strengthening: revenue growth accelerated from +7% year over year in Q1 2026 to +12% in Q2, guidance was raised twice, specialty growth accelerated, and the cost-savings program reached its stated run rate. The open question is whether delivery-cost absorption and 3%+ fleet productivity hold through the busy season as second-half CapEx deliveries skew toward the fourth quarter.
Earnings
United Rentals reported Q2 2026 revenue of $4.410 billion, up 12% year over year, with gross margin of 39.3% and net income of $753 million. Specialty rental revenue rose 25% year over year, with all seven specialty lines growing double-digit.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $4.0B | $3.9B | +11.8% |
| Gross margin | 39.3% | 36.9% | 36.1% | +320bps |
| EBITDA | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.8B | +11.1% |
| EPS | $11.84 | $8.35 | $9.58 | +23.5% |
| Specialty rental revenue growth | +25% y/y | +14% y/y | n/a | Accelerated from Q1 2026 |
Total revenue is now expected in the range of $17.5 billion to $17.8 billion, an increase of $500 million versus our prior guidance, while used sales are still expected at around $1.45 billion. At midpoint, this now implies full year growth ex-used of over 10% versus our original guidance of closer to 6%.— Ted Grace, Chief Financial Officer, July 23, 2026
Management tone: Management tone moved from upbeat but measured in Q1 to more assertive in Q2, saying the pipeline 'moved faster and got deeper' and that 2026 is on track to be a great year. Executives were direct on constraints such as supplier capacity while deflecting questions about guidance-range anchoring and rate-versus-time disclosure.
Management Guidance
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance on July 23, 2026. Total revenue is now $17.5 billion to $17.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA is $7.975 billion to $8.125 billion, gross rental CapEx is $4.85 billion to $5.25 billion, and net rental CapEx is $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion. Used sales remain about $1.45 billion in proceeds, and free cash flow was reaffirmed at $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion, with higher rental CapEx offset by higher cash flow from operations. At midpoint, management says full-year growth ex-used is over 10% versus original guidance of closer to 6%.
Trajectory
Revenue growth accelerated from +7% year over year in Q1 2026 to +12% in Q2 2026, while gross margin expanded to 39.3% from 36.1% a year earlier. The drivers were 7.1% average fleet growth, 3.4% fleet productivity, and nearly 28% ancillary/re-rent growth. Management's adjusted EBITDA margin rose 70 basis points as reported, or 40 basis points excluding a $49 million scaffolding sale gain and the outsized ancillary mix, with a 20–30 basis point fuel headwind.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $17,300 million and EBITDA of $7,698 million at a 44.5% margin, rising in FY+2 to revenue of $18,550 million and EBITDA of $8,255 million at a 44.5% margin. The near-term anchor is the company's twice-raised 2026 guide plus accelerating fleet productivity; FY+2 assumes the large-project, power, and specialty tailwinds carry into the following year without a break in used equipment recovery rates.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1B | $17.3B | $18.6B |
| YoY Growth | — | +7.5% | +7.2% |
| EBITDA | $7.1B | $7.7B | $8.3B |
| EBITDA Margin | 44.0% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 0.1% above analyst consensus.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance on July 23, 2026. Total revenue is now $17.5 billion to $17.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA is $7.975 billion to $8.125 billion, gross rental CapEx is $4.85 billion to $5.25 billion, and net rental CapEx is $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion. Used sales remain about $1.45 billion in proceeds, and free cash flow was reaffirmed at $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion, with higher rental CapEx offset by higher cash flow from operations. At midpoint, management says full-year growth ex-used is over 10% versus original guidance of closer to 6%.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Large-project pipeline continues into 2027, converting into rental revenue at high time utilization.
- Local markets recover from low-single-digit growth and add volume on top of large-project demand.
- Petrochem demand returns from deferred downstream turnarounds.
- Power, grid, and behind-the-meter data center work keeps the power vertical's double-digit organic run intact.
- Fleet productivity stays near 3.4% or higher through the back half.
- Delivery and repositioning costs re-inflate in the back half, repeating 2025's $115M excess-cost drag.
- Large-project financing or timing pauses, given growth is project-led and local markets are low-single-digit.
- Used equipment recovery rates fall from around 53% while the company sells about $2.8B OEC.
- Ancillary and re-rent mix keeps growing near 28% and compresses incremental margin.
- Supplier capacity prevents fleet growth, capping volume if demand continues to outrun expectations.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months, the company will test its raised guidance through the busy season, with second-half CapEx deliveries concentrated at 30–35% in Q3 and the balance in Q4. Management says the large-project tailwinds are expected to carry into 2027, but formal 2027 guidance is not yet provided and would come in the later planning cycle. S&P has raised its outlook to positive, with a possible investment-grade upgrade within the next 12 months.
- October 2026Q3 2026 earnings update — Tests revenue and EBITDA versus raised guidance and delivery-cost absorption.
- Next 12 monthsS&P rating action — Possible upgrade from high yield to investment grade.
- Later planning cycleFormal 2027 guidance — Management expects another growth year but has not sized it yet.
- 2026–2027Grid and transmission bookings — Potential upside to power vertical and large-project demand.
- OngoingSpecialty-focused M&A — Pipeline described as robust; four small deals closed in Q1 2026.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.3B | $16.1B | $16.8B | +4.9% |
| Gross Margin | 37.2% | 35.4% | 37.1% | 180bps |
| EBITDA | $7.0B | $7.1B | $50.2B | +1.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 45.4% | 44.0% | 43.9% | 144bps |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.6B | -3.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $419M | $662M | $6.6B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)37.1%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)43.9%
- Net Margin (TTM)15.7%
- ROIC13.5%
- FCF Conversion8.6%
- SBC / Revenue0.8%
The Company
United Rentals is the largest equipment rental company in the world. As of July 22, 2026, it operated 1,665 rental locations in North America, 44 in Europe, 47 in Australia, and 18 in New Zealand, with a rental equipment fleet carrying total OEC of $22.5 billion. It rents on an hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly basis and also sells used equipment, new equipment, contractor supplies, and services.
The business runs through General Rentals and Specialty. General Rentals covers construction, aerial, industrial, tools, and light equipment; Specialty covers power/HVAC, fluid solutions, mobile storage/modular office space, matting, trench safety, tools, and ROS. Management describes a one-stop shop supported by technology and national scale, with strategy centered on ROIC, service, fleet and customer mix, Lean techniques, cross-selling, and acquisitions.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
United Rentals describes itself as a one-stop shop and the largest equipment rental company in the world. Management says OEM dealer rental overlap is minimal and 'not high on management's radar.' The competitive pressure point is less visible in named rivals and more in supply: certain equipment categories are tight, and management says an incremental $1 billion of fleet could not be sourced on demand.
Supply Chain
United Rentals sits between equipment manufacturers and construction/industrial end markets, renting fleet into large projects. In the supplied neighbor scan, none of the peer transcripts mentioned URI by name; the largest customer is 1% or less of revenue.
More on URI: Earnings recap