Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Allegro MicroSystems designs the sensor and power chips that go inside cars, factories and data-center racks. In AI infrastructure its parts handle cooling and power delivery rather than compute: three-phase fan drivers that keep servers cool, current sensors that measure current in the power-supply stages, and, later, isolated gate drivers for high-voltage power conversion. The franchise is magnetic sensing, where the company describes itself as the world's leading supplier by market share, and its content per rack scales with how much power each rack draws. That makes it an indirect play: the demand comes from the build-out, but it sells components, not systems.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $946M |
| Revenue Growth | +24.2% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 13.4% |
| Net Debt | $125M |
| Earnings Beats | 6 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Data-center sales reached a record 14% of Q4 FY2026 sales, up 41% sequentially, and management guided them to 16–17% of Q1 FY2027 sales with 20–25% sequential growth.
- FY2026 sales were $890M, up 23% YoY and a fifth consecutive quarter of growth, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.54 more than doubling.
- Focus auto (xEV + ADAS) reached $349M, up 30% YoY and 55% of automotive sales, on content expansion and share gains rather than a unit recovery.
- Record FY2026 free cash flow of $125M and $60M of voluntary debt payments; the balance sheet at June 26, 2026 held $162.0M of cash against $287.2M of total debt.
- Backlog exited FY2026 at a multiyear high, FY2026 design wins grew 30% YoY, and current sensors went from about 10% to about 20% of data-center revenue in a single quarter.
What We’re Watching
- Automotive was 71% of FY2026 sales and flat sequentially in Q4; inventories are thin, with no clear signs of broad restocking.
- The data-center business is still majority fan drivers, and management concedes GPU/TPU fans will move to liquid cooling; the offset — fans proliferating into power supplies and network switching — is its argument, not a disclosed metric.
- Isolated gate drivers are 18 to 24 months from material data-center revenue, so the next power leg adds nothing near term.
- Wafer supply is concentrated in four named foundries, two of them in Taiwan, with disclosed China rare-earth restrictions including samarium; Q4 CapEx stepped up to $17M from $4M in FQ3 to add Philippines back-end capacity after pockets of order delinquency appeared.
The case is strengthening on mix and execution and unproven on disclosure. Data center is now the incremental driver of growth, backlog and design wins are rising, and margins expanded in FY2026 while absorbing an approximately 200 basis point gold headwind. Against that: 71% of revenue still comes from a flat automotive market, the company publishes no data-center dollar figure, no backlog duration and no named customer, and the source material carries no call detail for the quarter ended June 26, 2026, so the most recent guide has not been checked against actuals. The open question is whether the data-center mix keeps climbing without the fan-driver base being displaced first.
Earnings Beat
Allegro's latest reported quarter, ended June 26, 2026, produced revenue of $259.2M, up 6.6% sequentially and about 27% above the $203.4M reported a year earlier. Gross margin was 48.5%, against 44.9% a year ago. Net income was $15.9M and free cash flow $14.4M. The company's own commentary on that quarter is not in the source material.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 | Q4 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $259M | $243M | $203M | +27.4% |
| Gross margin | 48.5% | 47.1% | 44.9% | +360bps |
| EBITDA | $42M | $35M | $14M | +213.3% |
| EPS | $0.08 | $-0.09 | $-0.07 | −218.4% |
our content opportunity per rack scales from approximately $150 in today's servers to over $425 in next-generation AI configurations— Doogue, CEO, 2026-05-07
Management tone: The most recent call in the source material — FY2026 Q4, on 2026-05-07 — showed confident, numerically specific management. Data-center growth language firmed to well above 20% for FY2027, the backlog description was upgraded from multi-quarter highs to a multiyear high, and the pricing posture shifted from very low single-digit reductions to select increases beginning at the end of Q1 FY2027. Management stayed cautious on automotive, saying inventories remain thin with no clear signs of broad restocking, and it conceded that GPU and TPU fans will move to liquid cooling while arguing the power-supply fan offset more than covers the loss. It disclosed pockets of order delinquency and reaffirmed, rather than pulled in, the 18-to-24-month isolated-gate-driver timeline, and it declined to commit to a quarterly data-center revenue breakout. No call detail for the quarter ended June 26, 2026 is in the source material.
Management Guidance
For Q1 FY2027, management guided net sales of $245M–$255M (midpoint about +23% YoY and about +3% sequentially), non-GAAP gross margin of 50%–51%, and non-GAAP operating expenses of $80M ± $2M. The call added a diluted share count of 187M and an embedded drop-through of about 70% versus a typical 60–65%. Management said auto and focus auto would each be up a couple of percentage points sequentially and that data center would be 16–17% of sales, implying 20–25% sequential growth. Longer-term framing on the same call: data-center growth well above 20% in FY2027 and north of 20% long term, focus auto growth similar to FY2026, a long-term gross-margin target above 55%, and select price increases beginning at the end of Q1 FY2027.
Trajectory
Revenue rose sequentially in each of the last four quarters, from $214.3M to $259.2M, with increases of 5.4%, 7.0%, 6.1% and 6.6%. Gross margin moved from 46.3% to 48.5% over the same span and EBITDA margin from 10.7% to 16.3%. The driver is mix: in the March 2026 quarter, industrial and other revenue grew 23% sequentially while automotive was flat, and data center within industrial grew 41% sequentially to a record share. Management attributes the leverage to 60–65% drop-through on incremental revenue — guided at about 70% for Q1 FY2027 — plus factory efficiencies that offset an approximately 200 basis point gold headwind in FY2026.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $1,120M with EBITDA of $211M (18.8% margin), and FY+2 revenue of $1,350M with EBITDA of $290M (21.5% margin). The near term is anchored on the Q1 FY2027 guide of $245M–$255M in sales and a 50%–51% gross-margin range, with data center guided to 16–17% of sales and about 70% drop-through on incremental revenue. FY+2 depends on the data-center business compounding at management's stated well-above-20% FY2027 rate, current sensors continuing to scale inside that mix, and gross margin progressing toward the company's long-term target of above 55%.
| Metric | FY2026 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $890M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
| YoY Growth | — | +25.8% | +20.5% |
| EBITDA | $98M | $211M | $290M |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.0% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 4.8% above analyst consensus.
For Q1 FY2027, management guided net sales of $245M–$255M (midpoint about +23% YoY and about +3% sequentially), non-GAAP gross margin of 50%–51%, and non-GAAP operating expenses of $80M ± $2M. The call added a diluted share count of 187M and an embedded drop-through of about 70% versus a typical 60–65%. Management said auto and focus auto would each be up a couple of percentage points sequentially and that data center would be 16–17% of sales, implying 20–25% sequential growth. Longer-term framing on the same call: data-center growth well above 20% in FY2027 and north of 20% long term, focus auto growth similar to FY2026, a long-term gross-margin target above 55%, and select price increases beginning at the end of Q1 FY2027.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Data center reaches or exceeds 16–17% of sales in Q1 FY2027 and keeps compounding, with current sensors holding above about 20% of that revenue.
- The fan-driver offset holds: fans proliferating into power supplies and network switching more than replace the GPU and TPU fans lost to liquid cooling.
- Isolated gate drivers convert from sampling to production inside the 18-to-24-month window, adding the disclosed 2–3x dollar content uplift.
- Automotive content and share gains keep compounding — focus auto grew 30% in FY2026 — even without a cyclical restock.
- Gold-to-copper qualifications complete and price increases stick, moving gross margin toward the long-term target above 55%.
- Automotive, 71% of FY2026 sales, stays flat; thin inventories and no broad restocking leave the content story to carry the segment alone.
- A large rack architecture moves fully to liquid cooling and the power-supply fan offset does not materialize, hitting the fan-driver base of the data-center business.
- The data-center sequential growth rate keeps decelerating and the mix stalls below the guided range, leaving the incremental-growth argument without support.
- Volume stalls, and with it the operating leverage management calls the biggest driver of the margin bridge; the price increases fail to hold.
- Supply is disrupted — a Taiwan fab event, wider China rare-earth restrictions, or a foundry allocation squeeze — hitting revenue.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 12 months the questions are how fast the data-center mix rises, whether the price increases land, and whether robotics ships. Management guided Q1 FY2027 sales to $245M–$255M with data center at 16–17% of sales, expects data-center growth well above 20% for FY2027, and expects focus auto to grow something similar to FY2026's 30%. Robotics design wins are slated for initial shipments in calendar 2026, with volumes increasing in 2027. The isolated-gate-driver leg stays 18 to 24 months out, so the near term rests on products already shipping.
- Calendar 2026Robotics first shipments — Two Chinese robot design wins begin shipping; one is ~90 ICs per robot.
- FY2027Data-center growth guide — Management guides this business 'well above 20%' for the year.
- FY2027Current-sensor ramp — Expected to ramp 'even more strongly' inside the data-center mix.
- FY2027Focus auto growth — Guided to 'something similar' to FY2026's ~30% growth.
- 2027Robotics volume ramp — Volumes expected to increase after initial calendar-2026 shipments.
- 18–24 months from May 2026Isolated gate drivers — Material data-center revenue on the stated 18–24 month clock.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $725M | $890M | $946M | +22.8% |
| Gross Margin | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.2% | +185bps |
| EBITDA | $45M | $98M | $127M | +119.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 6.2% | 11.0% | 13.4% | +488bps |
| Net Income | −$73M | −$15M | $14M | +79.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $22M | $125M | $88M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)47.2%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)13.4%
- Net Margin (TTM)1.5%
- ROIC4.3%
- FCF Conversion69.5%
- SBC / Revenue2.8%
The Company
Allegro designs and sells sensor ICs and application-specific power ICs — magnetic sensors for current, position and speed, and power ICs for motor driving, regulation and isolated gate driving. The chips enable sensing, motion control and power management, and the company sells mostly into automotive and industrial markets, including AI data centers, robotics and energy infrastructure. It ships about 2.1 billion units a year to more than 15,000 customers, and it describes itself as the world's leading supplier of magnetic sensor ICs by market share.
Allegro owns the back end and rents the front end. Assembly and testing run primarily through its Manila, Philippines site — about 440,000 square feet, owned — alongside a leased R&D and administrative office in Muntinlupa City and its Manchester, New Hampshire headquarters of about 125,000 square feet. Wafers come from four named third-party foundries: UMC, Polar Semiconductor, Tower Semiconductor and TSMC, two of which are in Taiwan. Sales run heavily through distribution — all of Japan, a little more than half of China and 90% of industrial sales including data center — and the largest non-affiliated distributor accounted for 9.4% of FY2026 net sales, with no end customer above 10%.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 10-K does not name competitors, and the competitive picture in the source material comes from a lower-confidence relationship map. Allegro's own claim is narrow: it describes itself as the world's leading supplier of magnetic sensor ICs by market share, and says its magnetic current sensors lead in output accuracy, bandwidth and power density. The clearest disclosed competitive datum is a robotics design win in which its current sensors were selected over local alternatives on performance and smaller package size. Management also addressed a substitution threat directly, conceding that GPU and TPU fans will move to liquid cooling while arguing that fan proliferation into power supplies and network switching more than offsets the loss.
- Listed in the relationship map, where it also appears as a supplier and a customer; not discussed in the filings or calls.
- InfineonListed in the relationship map; not discussed in the filings or calls.
- Listed in the relationship map; not discussed in the filings or calls.
- Listed in the relationship map; not discussed in the filings or calls.
- Listed in the relationship map; not discussed in the filings or calls.
Supply Chain
Allegro buys wafers from four named foundries, owns assembly and test in the Philippines, and reaches customers mostly through distribution. No supply-chain neighbor in the source material names Allegro by name, so the corroboration is indirect.
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