DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (DBRG) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
DigitalBridge Group is an asset manager for digital infrastructure. It raises money from institutional investors — public and private pensions, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, endowments — and places that capital into funds and co-investment vehicles that own and develop data centers, cell towers and fiber networks. It does not own those assets on its own balance sheet; it earns management fees, incentive fees and carried interest on capital managed for others. That is how the AI buildout reaches the company: demand shows up as leases at campuses its platforms develop, and management argues that secured power — the electricity and interconnection a site can actually access — decides whether a customer can be served at all. The source's criticality read is that the buildout would continue largely uninterrupted without it, since the assets and power contracts exist independently.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $883M |
| Revenue Growth | +209.7% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 57.2% |
| Net Cash | $195M |
| Earnings Beats | 5 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Fee-earning equity under management was $41.0B at 12/31/2025, up from $40.7B at Q3 2025, when it was 19% higher year over year. The $40B target was reached a quarter early and finished $1.0B above it.
- The portfolio leased a record 2.6 GW in Q3 2025. Management described that as one third of total record U.S. hyperscale leasing for the quarter.
- Management disclosed more than 20 GW of secured power (21 GW referenced in Q&A) and a sales funnel above 7 GW, across 11 data center platforms and more than 400 data centers.
- About $40B of contracted, pre-leased AI campuses sits in the pipeline: Vantage Frontier in Texas ($25B, 1.4 GW) and Lighthouse in Wisconsin ($15B-plus, 1 GW), anchored by Oracle, OpenAI and leading cloud providers.
- Corporate cash stood at $173M at 9/30/2025, and the reported figures show $514.8M of cash against $319.7M of total debt at 6/30/2026.
What We’re Watching
- All required regulatory approvals — FERC, CFIUS, antitrust and other domestic and foreign clearances — were received 2026-09-22. The merger also requires consents from the flagship funds and from a specified percentage of fee-paying clients, and the source material does not report those as satisfied.
- Carried interest has been a reversal in each of the five printed quarters through Q1 2026: $(55.5)M, $(115.1)M, $(120.2)M, $(85.4)M and $(44.7)M. The CFO says small changes in fair value can have an outsized impact, "including causing reversals."
- Frontier and Lighthouse were guided to first deliverables in 2H 2026. No 2026 update on campus milestones appears in the source material, and no neighbor company confirms the timing.
On the operating record, the thesis was strengthening into Q3 2025 and has since gone quiet. The company reached its capital-formation target early, leased a record amount of capacity in a single quarter, and pointed to a large pipeline of pre-leased AI campuses. Then the take-private removed the call and the guidance, and the last detailed print showed the fee base resetting lower — a catch-up-fee roll-off the company had telegraphed, plus a cash-compensation step-up it has not explained. The thesis now rests on conversion, and the open question is whether the fund and client consents the deal still needs are obtained, because that is also the condition for the disclosure that would let anyone check.
Earnings Beat
DigitalBridge reported Q2 2026 revenue of $508.7M, up from $117.0M in the prior quarter, with gross margin of 100.0% as reported and EBITDA of $239.3M — 47.0% of revenue. Net income was $227.3M. No conference call was held and no detailed financial guidance was provided, which the company said is customary during the pendency of an acquisition.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $509M | $117M | $112M | +354.6% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 90.9% | 84.7% | +1530bps |
| EBITDA | $239M | $71M | $97M | +147.2% |
| EPS | $1.25 | $0.11 | $0.18 | +583.8% |
| Fee Related Earnings (FRE) | $24.0M (1Q26) | $37.7M (4Q25) | $35.0M (1Q25) | -31.3% |
| Fee-earning equity under management (FEEUM) | $41.0B (12/31/2025) | $40.7B (3Q25) | n/a | — |
We have over 20 gigawatts of total secured power across our data center portfolio. That's not a projection. That's actual power that we can access…— Marc Ganzi, Chief Executive Officer, 2025-10-30
Management tone: No earnings call on record for the latest period. On the last full call (Q3 2025, 2025-10-30), management ran a confident operating update and answered questions directly, including a specific carried-interest accrual framework and a volunteered caution about neocloud credit risk. The one item it declined to detail was legacy fund outflows for 2026. The CEO framed the shift in his own words as moving from "our back foot" to "a little bit on the front foot."
Management Guidance
No guidance was issued for the current period. The most recent guided figures came on the Q3 2025 call (2025-10-30) for FY2025: fee-related earnings growth of 10% to 20% over FY2024, pointed toward hitting "or potentially exceed" the top end of the range; a $40 billion FEEUM target already reached a quarter early at $40.7 billion; and FRE margins expected to remain elevated through the flagship fund's final close in Q4 2025, supported by catch-up fees. The FY2025 full-year FRE result is not in the source material. Detailed guidance was withdrawn in 2026 during the SoftBank acquisition pendency.
Trajectory
On the reported figures, revenue ran $124.0M in Q3 FY2025, $133.3M in Q4 FY2025, $117.0M in Q1 FY2026 and $508.7M in Q2 FY2026, with EBITDA of $113.6M, $81.0M, $71.2M and $239.3M. The computed signals call revenue direction accelerating and margins compressing; EBITDA margin fell from 91.6% in Q3 FY2025 to 47.0% in Q2 FY2026. The fee series underneath tells the more durable story: fee revenue peaked at $105.7M in Q4 2025, the flagship fund's final-close quarter, then dropped to $87.3M in Q1 2026, and fee-related earnings fell from $37.7M to $24.0M as cash compensation rose 19.3% year over year. The GAAP revenue line swings on carried-interest marks and principal investment income, so it moves for reasons that are not the recurring fee base.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $480M and EBITDA of $291M, a 60.6% EBITDA margin, then FY+2 revenue of $554M and EBITDA of $349M, a 63.0% margin. The near-term anchor is the fee on capital already raised plus co-invest capital being activated into fee-earning equity under management over roughly two years. The FY+2 step leans on the pre-leased AI campuses converting into fee streams and on carried interest moving from reversal toward realization, which management put on a three-to-five-year clock.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $415M | $480M | $554M |
| YoY Growth | — | +15.8% | +15.4% |
| EBITDA | $297M | $291M | $349M |
| EBITDA Margin | 71.7% | 60.6% | 63.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 12.4% above analyst consensus.
No guidance was issued for the current period. The most recent guided figures came on the Q3 2025 call (2025-10-30) for FY2025: fee-related earnings growth of 10% to 20% over FY2024, pointed toward hitting "or potentially exceed" the top end of the range; a $40 billion FEEUM target already reached a quarter early at $40.7 billion; and FRE margins expected to remain elevated through the flagship fund's final close in Q4 2025, supported by catch-up fees. The FY2025 full-year FRE result is not in the source material. Detailed guidance was withdrawn in 2026 during the SoftBank acquisition pendency.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Frontier and Lighthouse first deliverables land in 2H 2026 as guided, starting the conversion of the roughly $40B campus pipeline into fee streams.
- The merger's fund consents and client-consent threshold are obtained, clearing both the closing conditions and the concentration risk on the recurring fee base.
- Carried interest inflects from reversal to realization, inside the 24-to-36-month window management described for delivery to public shareholders.
- Co-invest capital converts into fee-earning equity under management over the next two-plus years at the 70 basis point co-invest rate, up from roughly 60 basis points.
- The Q1 2026 cash-compensation step-up proves to be build-out cost that normalizes, restoring the fee-related earnings margin.
- The Q1 2026 cash-compensation level is a new run rate rather than a build-out cost, holding the fee-related earnings margin near 27.5%.
- Frontier and Lighthouse deliverables slip past the guided 2H 2026 window; no neighbor company confirms the timing.
- Carry reversals continue. The GAAP carried-interest line has been negative in every one of the five printed quarters through Q1 2026.
- AI-campus revenue stays concentrated in a narrow counterparty set — Oracle, OpenAI and unnamed leading cloud providers — whose own delivery schedules are slipping.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months are dominated by one event: completion of the SoftBank acquisition. All required regulatory approvals were received 2026-09-22, and what remains are customary closing conditions plus consents from the flagship funds and a specified percentage of fee-paying clients. A close would likely restore the disclosure cadence — fee-earning equity under management, fee revenue, fee-related earnings and guidance — suspended since the pendency began. Operationally the items to watch are the Frontier and Lighthouse first deliverables guided for 2H 2026, the carried-interest calendar management put at 24 to 36 months for delivery to public shareholders, and whether the 2026 formation activity (ArcLight, Nippon Gateway, PLUS ES, VodafoneZiggo towers, ZEmobility) turns into new fee-earning capital.
- PendingSoftBank acquisition close — Customary conditions plus fund and client consents remain.
- 2H 2026Frontier and Lighthouse deliveries — First data halls on the two pre-leased AI mega campuses.
- 2027-2028Carry delivery to shareholders — 24 to 36 months from the Q3 2025 call, per management.
- 2027 through 2032Inferencing workload wave — Management expects 20-200 MW inferencing deals in this window.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $592M | $415M | $883M | -30.0% |
| Gross Margin | 102.0% | 82.9% | 95.7% | 1,907bps |
| EBITDA | $166M | $297M | $505M | +79.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 27.9% | 71.7% | 57.2% | +4,373bps |
| Net Income | $70M | $142M | $344M | +101.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $56M | $258M | $179M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)95.7%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)57.2%
- Net Margin (TTM)38.9%
- ROIC17.7%
- FCF Conversion35.4%
- SBC / Revenue3.5%
The Company
DigitalBridge Group is an investment manager in digital infrastructure. In its own words: "We are a leading global investment manager in digital infrastructure, deploying and managing capital across the digital ecosystem, including data centers, cell towers, and fiber networks." Its investor base includes public and private pensions, sovereign wealth funds, other asset managers, insurance companies and endowments. It matters to the AI buildout because the assets it manages — most visibly Vantage Data Centers' gigawatt-scale campuses — are where hyperscale and AI tenants take capacity, and because management argues that a secured power bank is the gate on whether a lease can be signed at megawatt and gigawatt scale.
The company runs five strategies described in its FY2025 10-K: DigitalBridge Partners for value-add digital infrastructure equity, Core Equity through the Strategic Assets Fund, DigitalBridge Credit, Liquid Strategies in public equities, and InfraBridge through the Global Infrastructure Fund. It reports as a single reportable segment — there is no product-line profit and loss in the public record. The corporate footprint is a leased headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida of about 31,500 square feet, plus a Tokyo office opened 2026-09-07 and led by Soichiro Suda. The physical assets sit in portfolio companies and fund vehicles, not on DigitalBridge's own balance sheet.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Management frames the competition around platform breadth. On the Q3 2025 call the CEO said DigitalBridge runs 11 data center platforms across the globe, and contrasted that with public data center REITs Digital Realty and Equinix — "great businesses," he said, but ones where an investor relies on "one management team" and "one pipeline." He also claimed "there's nobody even close in AI data centers" to DigitalBridge; the intel file flags that as management's characterization, not an independent market-share figure. The source lists Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR as large alternative managers competing for the same deals and LP capital, and Digital Realty, Equinix and Iron Mountain as public data-center REITs. It also carries counter-evidence: American Tower's CoreSite holds 9 of the top 10 AI companies and 3 of the top 5 neoclouds, and the cross-stack theme counts Blackstone at $150B-plus of data center assets with a $160B pipeline.
- Digital Realty (DLR)CEO called it a great business but said a single management team and a single pipeline contrast with DigitalBridge's 11 platforms.
- Equinix (EQIX)Named alongside Digital Realty as a public data-center REIT with one management team and one pipeline.
- Blackstone (BX)Listed as a large alternative manager competing for digital-infrastructure deals and LP capital; the cross-stack theme counts $150B-plus of data center assets with a $160B pipeline.
- Brookfield (BAM)Listed as a large alternative manager competing for digital-infrastructure and data-center deals and LP capital.
- KKRListed as a large alternative manager competing for digital-infrastructure and data-center deals and LP capital.
Supply Chain
DigitalBridge does not manufacture. Its chain has three limbs: capital partners who fund its vehicles, the vendors serving its portfolio companies' data center builds, and the tenants who lease the space. Most vendor relationships in the source are inferred, not disclosed.
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