Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Alliant Energy is a regulated utility holding company whose two subsidiaries, IPL and WPL, sell electricity and natural gas across Iowa and Wisconsin. Its connection to the AI buildout runs through large-load customers: data-center and hyperscale operators that need firm electric capacity, transmission service, and interconnection in the Midwest. Alliant contracts that service through individually negotiated, commission-approved agreements, builds the generation and storage to serve it, and recovers the cost through regulated rates. It is a power supplier to the buildout, not a technology vendor — and management discusses the demand in terms of data centers and large loads rather than AI.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.4B |
| Revenue Growth | +6.8% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 41.7% |
| Net Debt | $12.1B |
| Earnings Beats | 6 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Contracted demand of roughly 3.4 GW across five executed data-center agreements, up from four agreements and 3 GW a quarter earlier, with three projects under active construction.
- A future pipeline of 2–4 GW of potential large load, which management reiterated on both captured 2026 calls.
- The 2026 load-growth assumption was raised to 2%–3% from 1%; management attributed it to faster data centers and a stronger core business and said it is not temporary.
- Common equity need is largely pre-funded: of about $2.4B needed through 2029, roughly $1.8B has been raised through forward equity agreements, leaving about $500M.
- Iowa base electric rates are held flat — management cites 0% rate increases for five years — the affordability case it uses to support more data-center growth.
What We’re Watching
- The Q3 2026 earnings call is the gating disclosure event: management has promised a refreshed Iowa resource plan, an updated 4- to 5-year capital plan, and more specificity on long-term growth.
- No new ESA was announced on the Q2 2026 call despite an earlier stated cadence of announcing each ESA quarterly; a second quiet quarter would test the pipeline framing.
- Execution timing: QTS Cedar Rapids' 300 MW initial energization and the QTS Clinton 900 MW ICR filing are both promised for later this year.
- Political and siting risk in both states, including Iowa moratorium debate and a Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate the record describes as favoring a statewide moratorium.
The thesis is strengthening on demand and intact on earnings. Contracted data-center load moved from four agreements and 3 GW to five and roughly 3.4 GW, load actually being served rose above 40 MW at QTS Cedar Rapids, and the 2026 load-growth assumption went from 1% to 2%–3%. Management reaffirmed both its 2026 guidance range and its 7%+ compound earnings growth plan for 2027–2029. What tempers the read is disclosure: data-center revenue and margin are not broken out, the generation build-out is early, and the largest new commitments are unquantified. The open question is whether the Q3 2026 update converts the pipeline and capital plan into numbers specific enough to carry the growth rate.
Earnings Beat
Alliant Energy reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $0.65 per share, versus $0.68 a year earlier, on revenue of $971M and a gross margin of 45.1%. Electric sales excluding temperature effects rose about 3% year over year, helped by Wisconsin commercial and industrial demand and the initial phase of Iowa data-center load. Milder-than-normal temperatures were a $0.03 per share drag, against a $0.02 benefit a year earlier. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance range and said the year was trending in the upper half.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $971M | $1.2B | $961M | +1.0% |
| Gross margin | 45.1% | 36.1% | 26.4% | +1870bps |
| EBITDA | $405M | $472M | $431M | −6.0% |
| EPS | $0.65 | $0.87 | $0.68 | −3.6% |
| Contracted data-center demand | ~3.4 GW across five ESAs | n/a | n/a | — |
And just a data point, QTS as of today has got over 40 megawatts worth of load, which is great to see.— Lisa Barton, CEO, 2026-07-31
Management tone: Across the two captured 2026 calls, management's presentation moved from signing agreements toward energization and ramp. On the latest call the CEO pointed to QTS load already in service and a 300 MW initial energization expected later this year, and the CFO said the amended QTS agreement should bring higher revenues in 2027 and 2028. Management was direct on the topics it chose to address — the QTS amendment, the Linn County moratorium, and AMT — and repeatedly deferred pipeline and expansion detail to the Q3 2026 update. It also signaled a possible change in how it frames long-term growth, saying it is evaluating more transparency, whether a range or more specific annual targets.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and said the year was trending in the upper half of the range. It reaffirmed a 2027–2029 compound annual earnings growth rate of 7% plus while saying it is evaluating more specificity at the third-quarter update, and it acknowledged some lumpiness. The company raised its 2026 load-growth assumption to 2%–3% from 1% and said its 2026 O&M assumption was up 1 percentage point, weighted to the first half. Stated guidance assumptions include normal temperatures, execution of the capital plan and cost controls, and a consolidated effective tax rate of (29%).
Trajectory
On reported figures, revenue growth is decelerating and margins are compressing: gross margin has been roughly stable while operating and EBITDA margins have narrowed. Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $4,429M with EBITDA of $1,848M, a 41.7% EBITDA margin, and trailing free cash flow was negative against positive net income — the pattern of a utility funding a large construction program. The quarterly revenue line has swung on weather and the timing of regulatory recovery rather than following a simple trend. The forward driver management points to is data-center load: it raised the 2026 sales-growth assumption to 2%–3% and said the QTS ramp amendment should lift revenue in 2027 and 2028.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $4,508M and EBITDA of $1,880M, a 41.7% EBITDA margin. For FY+2 it projects revenue of $4,770M and EBITDA of $2,013M, a 42.2% margin. The near-term anchor is the regulated capital program and the early ramp of contracted data-center load; the FY+2 step reflects continued load ramp and the generation and storage now under construction or in filing entering service and earning a regulated return.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $4.5B | $4.8B |
| YoY Growth | — | +3.3% | +5.8% |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| EBITDA Margin | 42.9% | 41.7% | 42.2% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 2.7% above analyst consensus.
Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and said the year was trending in the upper half of the range. It reaffirmed a 2027–2029 compound annual earnings growth rate of 7% plus while saying it is evaluating more specificity at the third-quarter update, and it acknowledged some lumpiness. The company raised its 2026 load-growth assumption to 2%–3% from 1% and said its 2026 O&M assumption was up 1 percentage point, weighted to the first half. Stated guidance assumptions include normal temperatures, execution of the capital plan and cost controls, and a consolidated effective tax rate of (29%).
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- The five executed data-center agreements energize on schedule; QTS Cedar Rapids' 300 MW initial energization lands later in 2026 and the 900 MW Clinton project advances through its Iowa filing.
- The 2–4 GW pipeline converts into new executed agreements, adding contracted load on top of the roughly 3.4 GW already signed.
- The refreshed resource plan at Q3 2026 sets out a larger capital program, expanding the regulated rate base that earns the company's return.
- Iowa adds enough incremental data-center load for the base-rate stay-out to extend beyond 2029 — management tied that to signing 'several hundred megawatts more.'
- FERC permits self-funded network upgrades and Alliant elects to invest, adding capital at a cost of capital management describes as below the transmission company's.
- The pipeline does not convert; a second consecutive quarter without a new ESA announcement pressures the growth framing.
- Generation or transmission in-service dates slip, pushing out the 2027 and 2028 revenue management tied to the QTS accelerated ramp.
- Wisconsin siting friction rises — a statewide moratorium proposal is named in the record — taking the state out of the growth map.
- A larger capital plan at Q3 2026 arrives with a financing need above the roughly $500M of remaining equity.
- A third consecutive mild-weather stretch hits results; the 2026 guidance assumes normal temperatures.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months are built around execution and disclosure. Management has said the Q3 2026 earnings call will carry a refreshed Iowa resource plan, an updated 4- to 5-year capital expenditure and financing plan, and more specificity on long-term earnings growth, with a parallel update at EEI. On the operations side, QTS Cedar Rapids' 300 MW initial energization, the QTS Clinton 900 MW ICR filing, the 370 MW ESA filing, and a Wisconsin large-load tariff are all slotted for later in 2026. A FERC decision on self-funded network upgrades is awaited with no stated timeline.
- Later this quarter (2026)Wisconsin large-load tariff — Expected filing, aligned with Xcel's slice-of-system approach.
- Q3 2026Resource and capex update — Refreshed Iowa resource plan, 4–5 year capex plan, and financing.
- Later this year (2026)QTS Cedar Rapids energization — 300 MW initial energization on the seven-building campus.
- Later this year (2026)QTS Clinton ICR filing — Individual customer rate filing for the 900 MW Iowa project.
- Later this year (2026)370 MW ESA filing — Individual customer rate application for the 370 MW hyperscale load.
- By 2030370 MW ESA full ramp — Full load ramp for the 370 MW hyperscale agreement.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.4B | +9.6% |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | 39.5% | 42.1% | 498bps |
| EBITDA | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.8B | +12.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 41.7% | 42.9% | 41.7% | +120bps |
| Net Income | $690M | $810M | $817M | +17.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.1B | −$1.3B | −$260M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)42.1%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)41.7%
- Net Margin (TTM)18.4%
- ROIC3.9%
- FCF Conversion-14.1%
- SBC / Revenue0.0%
The Company
Alliant Energy is a regulated investor-owned utility holding company. Through two subsidiaries — Interstate Power and Light in Iowa and Wisconsin Power and Light in Wisconsin — it provides electric and natural gas service to roughly 1,010,000 electric and 435,000 natural gas customers. Its relevance to the AI buildout is as a seller of regulated power and capacity: hyperscale and data-center customers need large, firm, sited electric service and interconnection, and Alliant contracts to provide it under commission-approved agreements, then builds the generation and storage to serve that load. It also carries a small non-utility business and corporate venture fund investments.
Alliant is a regulated utility, not a merchant developer: it owns and operates a large mixed generation fleet across Iowa and Wisconsin — gas, wind, solar, coal (some minority-owned), oil peakers, hydro, and energy storage — and recovers its capital investment through regulated rates. It positions itself as a site broker, guiding data-center customers to low-cost, transmission-ready sites, and it structures recent agreements as capacity-only electric service agreements, so the required investment is primarily energy storage and natural gas combustion turbines. Its two states run on separate regulatory tracks, with Iowa base electric rates held flat and a broader Wisconsin large-load tariff in the works.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Alliant competes for large-load customers mainly on siting cost, transmission readiness, and regulatory treatment. Management says it guides data-center customers to low-cost, transmission-ready sites, and cites Iowa's wind resources and five years of flat base rates as buyer advantages — 'not everybody can do it.' The record also shows siting is movable: a customer that signed a WPL electric service agreement in 2025 later chose a location in IPL's Iowa territory, and the agreement was terminated and re-executed with IPL.
- Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BRK_B)Wired as a competitor for data-center load in Iowa; management referenced 'MidAmerican and Alliant' together when describing Iowa's load and wind resource.
- WEC Energy (WEC)Wired as the Wisconsin utility competitor for data-center load; not discussed further in the record.
- Xcel (XEL)Management said its Wisconsin large-load tariff 'will very much be aligned with Xcel's,' describing a slice-of-system approach.
- Ameren (AEE)Wired as a MISO-territory utility serving data centers; not discussed further in the record.
- NextEra (NEE)Wired as renewable energy for data centers; not discussed further in the record.
Supply Chain
Alliant Energy sits downstream in the chain, selling regulated power and transmission to data-center customers while buying the generation, storage, and construction to serve them. Its own filings carry only a generic supply-chain risk, and no neighbor in the material cites it by name.
More on LNT: Earnings recap