Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Alliant Energy is a regulated utility holding company that supplies electricity and natural gas through IPL in Iowa and WPL in Wisconsin. Its role in the AI buildout is to provide the regulated power, grid capacity, generation, storage, and site-ready land that hyperscale data centers need when they locate in its service territory. It is not a data center operator or chipmaker; its AI exposure is the electric load those facilities add, monetized through regulated rates and customer-funded infrastructure. This makes it an AI-adjacent utility rather than a direct infrastructure supplier.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.4B |
| Revenue Growth | +6.8% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 41.7% |
| Net Debt | $12.1B |
| Earnings Beats | 6 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Five executed data-center electric service agreements total approximately 3.4 GW; three projects are under active construction.
- Contracted load represents more than a 60% increase in current peak demand, and management says generation to serve it is already secured.
- Iowa base electric rates are stable through at least the end of the decade, with at least four more years of no retail electric base rate reviews.
- Roughly $1.3 billion of the expected $2.4 billion common equity need has been raised; IPL was upgraded to A- by S&P.
- A 2–4 GW mature large-load pipeline is screened for land control, active discussions, and transmission studies.
What We’re Watching
- MISO accreditation assumptions remain unresolved until Q3 2026 and could increase required generation and capex.
- Most data-center load ramps in 2027 and beyond; 2026 retail sales growth is guided to about 1%.
- Wisconsin local opposition persists; the Meta Beaver Dam docket decision timing widened from Q2 to 'the next 12 months'.
- Five agreements hold 3.4 GW of load with a small number of largely unnamed counterparties.
The thesis is strengthening on contract formation and construction activity: contracted load rose and three projects are under construction, and financing is de-risked. But the P&L impact is still back-end-loaded, and the plan depends on a small number of large customers. The open question is whether the Q3 2026 resource-plan update raises the long-term growth trajectory and whether the 2–4 GW pipeline converts into signed ESAs.
Earnings Beat
Alliant reported Q2 2026 revenue of $971 million, gross margin of 45.1%, and EBITDA of $405 million. GAAP consolidated EPS was $0.65, down from $0.68 a year earlier. Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and said earnings are trending in the upper half.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $971M | $1.2B | $961M | +1.0% |
| Gross margin | 45.1% | 36.1% | 26.4% | +1870bps |
| EBITDA | $405M | $472M | $431M | −6.0% |
| EPS | $0.65 | $0.87 | $0.68 | −3.6% |
| Contracted data center load | 3.4 GW | 3.0 GW | n/a | — |
We now have five fully executed data center agreements representing approximately 3.4 gigawatts of contracted demand, with three of these projects under active construction.— Lisa M. Barton, President and CEO, 2026-05-01
Management tone: Management on the Q1 2026 call was direct on strategy and pipeline but declined to name customers, disclose contract costs, or give a tighter EPS range, citing confidentiality and deferring detail to the Q3/EEI update. The call represented a step-up in concreteness from Q4, with the 1.1 GW gas contract size disclosed only in Q&A.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and indicated earnings are trending in the upper half of the range. 2026 retail sales growth is guided to approximately 1%, inclusive of sales to new data centers during construction.
Trajectory
Revenue is decelerating on a quarterly basis: Q1 FY2026 revenue was $1,184 million, up 11.3% sequentially, then Q2 FY2026 was $971 million, down 18.0% sequentially. Gross margin is stable while operating and EBITDA margins are compressing, and TTM free cash flow is negative at -$260 million against net income of $817 million. The near-term P&L remains a regulated utility story; 2026 retail sales growth is guided to about 1%, and most data-center load is 2027 and beyond.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $4,550 million and EBITDA of $1,947 million (42.8% margin), rising to FY+2 revenue of $4,900 million and EBITDA of $2,176 million (44.4% margin). Near-term revenue is anchored by modest 2026 retail sales growth, while FY+2 reflects continued data-center load ramping beyond 2027.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $4.5B | $4.9B |
| YoY Growth | — | +4.3% | +7.7% |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.2B |
| EBITDA Margin | 42.9% | 42.8% | 44.4% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 4.8% above analyst consensus.
Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and indicated earnings are trending in the upper half of the range. 2026 retail sales growth is guided to approximately 1%, inclusive of sales to new data centers during construction.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- The 2–4 GW pipeline converts into additional executed ESAs, expanding contracted load beyond 3.4 GW.
- The Q3 2026 resource-plan update details generation investment that supports a larger future revenue and EBITDA base.
- MISO accreditation assumptions come in favorable, avoiding a material increase in required generation.
- Wisconsin dockets are approved, adding a second geographic market for data-center load.
- Energy storage and natural gas combustion turbines enter service on schedule, earning authorized returns as load ramps.
- MISO accreditation changes require more generation than planned, raising capex and pressuring EBITDA.
- The 2–4 GW pipeline stalls and quarterly ESA announcements stop.
- A large customer delays or relocates, reducing contracted load and future revenue.
- Wisconsin dockets are denied or further delayed, leaving the story Iowa-concentrated.
- Cost overruns or schedule slippage on CT, wind, storage, and transmission projects push EBITDA contribution later.
Looking Ahead
The next 12 months center on the Q3 2026 earnings call and EEI update, when management plans to refresh the Iowa resource plan, MISO accreditation assumptions, and the EPS and growth trajectory. Management also anticipates filing Iowa individual customer rate applications for the second QTS data center and the 370 MW ESA, while several Wisconsin dockets — including Meta Beaver Dam, LNG storage, additional wind, and Riverside capacity — are expected to see decisions over the next 12 months. An IUC decision on the 720 MW Linn County combustion turbine is expected in Q1 2027.
- Q3 2026Iowa resource plan update — MISO accreditation, 370 MW generation, and EPS/growth trajectory refresh.
- 2026Iowa ICR filings — Second QTS data center and 370 MW ESA individual customer rate applications.
- Next 12 monthsWisconsin docket decisions — Meta Beaver Dam, LNG storage, ~430 MW wind, and Riverside capacity.
- Q1 2027720 MW CT IUC decision — Linn County, Iowa combustion turbine project approval.
- Q1 2027Riverside PSCW decision — Wisconsin capacity increase construction authority.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.4B | +9.6% |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | 39.5% | 42.1% | 498bps |
| EBITDA | $1.7B | $1.9B | $14.6B | +12.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 41.7% | 42.9% | 41.7% | +120bps |
| Net Income | $690M | $810M | $817M | +17.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.1B | −$1.3B | −$8.7B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)42.1%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)41.7%
- Net Margin (TTM)18.4%
- ROIC3.9%
- FCF Conversion-14.1%
- SBC / Revenue0.0%
The Company
Alliant Energy is a regulated investor-owned utility holding company serving approximately 1,010,000 electric and 435,000 natural gas customers in Iowa and Wisconsin through its two main utilities, IPL and WPL. It does not build data centers or sell compute; its role in the AI buildout is to supply the regulated electricity, grid capacity, generation, storage, and transmission-ready land that hyperscale data centers require when they place load in its service territory.
Alliant operates a broad owned generation fleet across gas, wind, solar, coal, hydro, and storage in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Large customers fund their own incremental infrastructure through individual customer rates, and newer electric service agreements are capacity-only. The buildout is supported by a $13.4 billion four-year capital investment program through 2029 and a $2.4 billion expected common equity need over the next four years.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Alliant's management describes Iowa as having about twice the physical service territory of Wisconsin and stronger transmission interconnections, and frames its approach as the 'Alliant Energy Advantage' — a disciplined, solutions-oriented approach to growth. Data center site selection is competitive: QTS relocated a Wisconsin project to Iowa, and management acknowledged Wisconsin local friction and PJM-related rhetoric while emphasizing Iowa's wind and land advantages.
- MidAmerican EnergyPeer utility serving data-center load in Iowa; management cited about 6 GW of load between MidAmerican and Alliant.
Supply Chain
Alliant Energy sits between generation suppliers and data-center customers as the regulated utility providing interconnection, capacity, and site-ready land. No supplied neighbor transcript mentioned LNT by name.