NET Power Inc. (NPWR) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
NET Power is an energy technology and project development company advancing a modular clean gas power plant that pairs a natural gas combined cycle with post-combustion carbon capture. The design targets 24/7 baseload electricity with over 90% CO₂ capture. The company's first plant, Project Permian Phase 1 in West Texas, is designed to serve the growing demand for firm, low-carbon power from AI data centers and other large loads, though no offtake agreements have been signed.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $0M |
| Revenue Growth | −100.0% |
| Net Cash | $304M |
| Earnings Beats | 2 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- The company has ample cash and no debt, giving it funding through FID, with an equity contribution target of $125–175 million.
- The $77 million Siemens turbine order exceeded the $50 million mid‑year target, signaling management's willingness to deploy capital ahead of offtake.
- The Permian site can scale from 80 MW to 800 MW (10 units), offering a path to gigawatt‑scale clean firm power on one location.
- Entropy’s Glacier Phase 2 commissioning in Q2 2026 could validate commercial‑scale carbon capture and directly support offtake discussions.
- Management’s project finance track record — the new CFO raised >$2 billion for gas peaker portfolios — signals a credible path to non‑recourse debt.
What We’re Watching
- Offtake progress in the coming months — without a signed PPA at $100/MWh or better, FID could slip.
- Entropy JDA finalization in Q2 2026 — any delay or failure would halt the project.
- EOR market acceptance — the CEO flagged that customer rejection of enhanced oil recovery could stop capital deployment.
- Air permit in H2 2026 — first‑of‑a‑kind permitting may face delays despite management’s low‑risk outlook.
The thesis remains contingent: the company’s technical progress and cash position are strengthening, but the commercial case is still unproven. The key open question is whether a power purchase agreement can be signed with a buyer that accepts the EOR‑linked carbon capture pathway.
Earnings
The company generated no revenue in the first quarter of 2026. General and administrative expenses ran at $8–9 million, keeping the cash burn modest. The period was marked by a raised equity contribution target of $125–175 million and the formal launch of the offtake process.
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | $0M | — |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | −$31M | −$66M | −$453M | −93.2% |
| EPS | $-0.12 | $-0.25 | $-1.55 | −92.5% |
| Pre‑FID equipment commitments | $77M | n/a | n/a | — |
I can tell you, not everyone wants to be associated with oil production, and that’s okay. But if no one wants to be associated with EOR, even in spite of the environmental and social benefits that come from this ecosystem we’re creating, it’s better that we learn that before we commit any additional capital to it.— Danny Rice, CEO, May 12, 2026
Management tone: Management was confident but more contingent than prior quarters. The CEO voluntarily flagged that customer rejection of enhanced oil recovery could be a binary risk, a new and sober note. The tone was disciplined, with repeated emphasis that further capital will be gated on committed demand.
Management Guidance
Management reaffirmed all major milestones: FID in H2 2026, commercial operation in early 2029, and a target power price of $100/MWh or better for bankability. New near‑term targets include finalising the Entropy JDA and signing a gas supply MOU in Q2 2026, receiving the air permit in H2 2026, and executing additional long‑lead equipment orders from June through September 2026. All equipment orders beyond the $77 M turbine contract are contingent on offtake progress.
Trajectory
NET Power has no meaningful revenue, and its income statement reflects development‑stage operating costs. In the most recent available periods, EBITDA losses were $25–27 million per quarter, driven by headcount and pre‑construction expenses. The cash burn is expected to rise as equipment orders accelerate, but the cash position provides a multi‑year runway.
The Model
The model projects no revenue in either FY+1 or FY+2, reflecting the company’s pre‑revenue status and the long timeline to first power in early 2029. EBITDA losses are forecast at $76 million in FY+1 and $71 million in FY+2, as development and pre‑construction expenses continue. The forecasts assume that Project Permian Phase 1 will not generate power within the projection window.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | $0M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | −$633M | −$76M | −$71M |
| EBITDA Margin | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
Management reaffirmed all major milestones: FID in H2 2026, commercial operation in early 2029, and a target power price of $100/MWh or better for bankability. New near‑term targets include finalising the Entropy JDA and signing a gas supply MOU in Q2 2026, receiving the air permit in H2 2026, and executing additional long‑lead equipment orders from June through September 2026. All equipment orders beyond the $77 M turbine contract are contingent on offtake progress.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- A power purchase agreement is signed at or above $100/MWh with a creditworthy counterparty, clearing the path to FID.
- Data‑center or utility offtakers commit to multiple phases, scaling the Permian site to 800 MW.
- Entropy’s Glacier Phase 2 operates reliably at commercial scale, validating the carbon capture performance.
- Project Permian Phase 1 reaches commercial operation on time and budget, proving repeatability.
- Policy support for carbon capture and enhanced oil recovery improves project returns.
- Failure to secure a power purchase agreement pushes FID beyond 2026 or cancels the project.
- Power buyers reject the enhanced oil recovery sequestration pathway, making the plant unsaleable.
- The Entropy JDA is not finalised, depriving the company of its technology partner.
- The air permit is delayed, pushing the commissioning timeline and eroding the speed advantage.
- Project costs exceed the $575 million upper bound, rendering the $100/MWh PPA uneconomic.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months will be decisive. Near-term milestones include the Entropy JDA, Glacier Phase 2 commissioning, and a gas supply MOU in Q2 2026, followed by additional equipment commitments and a potential power purchase agreement. If these steps succeed, a final investment decision could follow in the second half of 2026.
- Q2 2026Entropy JDA signed — Tests technology partnership and exclusivity.
- Q2 2026Glacier Phase 2 online — Validates commercial‑scale carbon capture performance.
- Q2 2026Gas supply MOU — Secures fuel supply for Phase 1.
- H1/H2 2026Power purchase agreement — Signals commercial viability and enables FID.
- H2 2026Air permit received — Regulatory clearance for construction.
- H2 2026FID announced — Formal project sanction and full capital commitment.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0M | $0M |
| Gross Margin | — | — |
| EBITDA | −$633M | −$745M |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — |
| Net Income | −$578M | −$469M |
| Free Cash Flow | −$154M | −$303M |
| Net Cash | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
The Company
NET Power is an energy technology and project development company focused on delivering low‑carbon, natural‑gas‑fired power. It has shifted from its proprietary Oxy‑Combustion cycle to a clean gas product that pairs conventional combined‑cycle turbines with post‑combustion carbon capture licensed from Entropy Inc. The plant design targets over 90% CO₂ capture and 24/7 baseload power, aiming to fill the growing gap in firm, dispatchable clean electricity.
The company operates through a single, pre‑revenue project: Project Permian Phase 1 in West Texas. The plant is sited on land leased from Occidental Petroleum, will connect to the ERCOT grid via Oncor, and will sell captured CO₂ to Oxy for enhanced oil recovery. NET Power plans to own and operate its plants, employing a modular, design‑once‑build‑many approach that could scale to 800 MW on the same site. Development is financed by its cash reserves and requires no debt.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
NET Power competes primarily against unabated natural gas combined‑cycle plants, which can be built faster and cheaper without the carbon capture footprint. In ERCOT, developers like Vistra, Talen, and Calpine are active. The company’s value proposition hinges on delivering clean firm power at a cost and timeline competitive with unabated gas, a proposition that remains unproven. Management acknowledges that buyers are currently prioritizing speed and scale over emissions.
- VistraNamed as an active developer of unabated gas plants in ERCOT.
- Named as an active developer of unabated gas plants in ERCOT.
- CalpineNamed as an active developer of unabated gas plants in ERCOT.
Supply Chain
NET Power operates as a project developer, interconnecting gas turbines and carbon capture technology from suppliers to deliver clean electricity to grid operators and large end users.