Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Skyworks designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products — amplifiers, antenna tuners, filters, front-end modules, digital power isolators, and timing devices. It supplies RF signal-path content and timing/power devices into smartphones, WiFi, data centers, automotive, aerospace, and cellular infrastructure. In the AI buildout, it is an enabler rather than a compute provider: its precision timing and power isolation devices sit inside high-speed data-center platforms and HVDC power architectures.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.0B |
| Revenue Growth | +0.1% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 19.4% |
| Net Cash | $118M |
| Earnings Beats | 7 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Broad Markets has grown for nine consecutive quarters, reaching roughly $400M in quarterly revenue and +10% YoY.
- WiFi, data center, and automotive were nearly two-thirds of Broad Markets revenue and collectively grew 30% YoY.
- The multigenerational Android OEM design win is expected to generate over $1B through 2030, rising year-over-year.
- AI data center timing/power is expected to grow nearly 50% in FY2026.
- The Qorvo combination targets $500M+ synergies and a post-close gross margin of 50%–55%.
What We’re Watching
- Qorvo close remains formal early calendar 2027; late 2026 is only described as 'increasingly hopeful.'
- The FQ2 FY2026 10-Q attributes the YoY revenue decline to a decrease in market share at a significant customer.
- Input costs — gold and expedite fees — are pressing near-term gross margin; the FQ3 guide was 44.5%–45.5% flat sequentially.
- FQ2 FY2026 free cash flow was -$32M while the quarterly dividend was $106.8M.
The diversification-and-merger thesis is strengthening on disclosure — a quantified Android win, Broad Markets compounding, and a possibly earlier Qorvo close — but weakening on the core mobile franchise, where the latest 10-Q documents share loss at the largest customer. The open question is whether the Android ramp and Broad Markets growth can offset that share loss, or whether total revenue keeps drifting lower until the merger closes.
Earnings Beat
FQ3 FY2026 (ended July 3, 2026) delivered revenue of $934.8M, reported gross margin of 40.1%, and free cash flow of -$254.7M. Detailed management commentary for the quarter was not in the supplied source set.
| Metric | Q3 FY2026 | Q2 FY2026 | Q3 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $935M | $944M | $965M | −3.1% |
| Gross margin | 40.1% | 40.8% | 41.6% | -150bps |
| EBITDA | $165M | $154M | $226M | −27.1% |
| EPS | $0.22 | $0.24 | $0.70 | −67.8% |
| Free cash flow | -$254.7M | -$32.0M | $246.0M | — |
Management tone: No earnings call on record for the latest period.
Management Guidance
No guidance was issued for FQ4 FY2026 in the supplied source set.
Trajectory
Reported revenue stepped down across the supplied quarters — from $1,100.2M in Q4 FY2025 to $1,035.4M, $943.7M, and $934.8M in Q3 FY2026. Reported gross margin was 40.8% in FQ2 FY2026 and 40.1% in FQ3 FY2026, while the 10-Q attributes the decline to market-share loss at a significant customer, partially offset by WiFi demand. Management has pointed to book-to-bill above 1 and lean channel inventories as signs the softness is supply-seasonal rather than a demand collapse.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $3,975M with EBITDA of $894M (22.5% margin), and FY+2 revenue of $4,250M with EBITDA of $982M (23.1% margin). The near-term anchor is a large-customer share-loss drag against Broad Markets momentum; FY+2 assumes the Android ramp, Broad Markets growth, and Qorvo-related margin expansion path continue.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $4.0B | $4.2B |
| YoY Growth | — | −2.7% | +6.9% |
| EBITDA | $963M | $894M | $982M |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.6% | 22.5% | 23.1% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs. The model’s revenue sits 5.6% above analyst consensus.
No guidance was issued for FQ4 FY2026 in the supplied source set.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Android design win ramps year-over-year through 2030 and reaches over $1B in cumulative revenue.
- Qorvo transaction closes by late 2026 or early 2027, unlocking $500M+ synergies.
- Broad Markets continues its nine-quarter growth streak and builds beyond ~$400M quarterly revenue.
- AI data center revenue compounds at nearly 50% growth from a sub-$100M base.
- Largest-customer blended mobile content stays roughly flat and the internal-modem migration becomes a tailwind.
- Share loss at the significant customer continues or accelerates; the 10-Q already attributes the latest decline to it.
- Qorvo merger slips to early 2027 or later; China SAMR Phase 2 stalls.
- Input cost inflation — gold, expedite fees — outruns selective price increases and gross margin compresses below 44.5%–45.5%.
- Data center timing remains sub-$100M and loses design wins to aggressive precision-timing competitors such as SiTime.
- Negative free cash flow persists as inventory and capex build while dividends continue at roughly $107M quarterly.
Looking Ahead
The next twelve months turn on the Qorvo closing path — completion of China SAMR Phase 2, remaining antitrust and shareholder approvals, and the debt financing steps already underway — while the Android win, WiFi 8/6G FR3 qualifications, and automotive footprint expansion begin converting to revenue.
- FY2026Data center growth test — AI data center expected to grow nearly 50% this year.
- Late 2026Qorvo close hopeful — Management 'increasingly hopeful' for late 2026; formal close remains early 2027.
- Early calendar 2027Qorvo formal close — Subject to SAMR Phase 2, antitrust, and shareholder approvals.
- FY2027Automotive footprint expansion — Connected car/infotainment and EV gate driver extend footprint.
- Through 2030Android design win ramp — Rising year-over-year.
- Next upgrade cycleWiFi 8 / 6G FR3 — Early customer collaboration; BAW filters for early 6G FR3.
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.0B | -2.2% |
| Gross Margin | 41.1% | 41.2% | 40.7% | +8bps |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | $963M | $14.7B | -11.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 26.1% | 23.6% | 19.4% | 249bps |
| Net Income | $596M | $477M | $290M | -19.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.1B | $10.6B | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)40.7%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)19.4%
- Net Margin (TTM)7.2%
- ROIC4.5%
- FCF Conversion25.2%
- SBC / Revenue5.8%
The Company
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. designs, manufactures, and supplies analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products — amplifiers, antenna tuners, SAW/TC-SAW/BAW filters, front-end modules, digital power isolators, and timing devices. Its RF front-end content sits in premium smartphones, while timing and power devices feed optical networking, data centers, wireless base stations, industrial, and automotive systems. The FY2025 10-K describes the company as 'a leading developer, manufacturer and provider of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products for numerous applications including aerospace, automotive, cellular infrastructure, and smartphones.'
Manufacturing spans nine primary sites totaling approximately 2.27 million square feet, including filter manufacturing in Singapore and Osaka, manufacturing and offices in Mexicali, and design centers in California, Massachusetts, and Texas. The 10-K discloses dependence on a limited number of sole-source suppliers, and the 10-Q shows foundry capacity reservation deposits more than doubled to $57.0M in six months.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
The 10-K lists competitors as Analog Devices, Broadcom, Cirrus Logic, Murata Manufacturing, NXP Semiconductors, Qorvo, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments. Qorvo appears as both a competitor and the pending merger partner; the combination would remove a direct RF competitor. The 10-K also notes dependence on sole-source suppliers and states that ASP erosion of established products is typical of the semiconductor industry.
- QorvoNamed competitor and pending merger partner; expected $500M+ synergies and post-close gross margin 50%–55%.
- QualcommNamed in the 10-K competitor list; not specifically discussed in supplied SWKS filings.
- BroadcomNamed in the 10-K competitor list; not specifically discussed in supplied SWKS filings.
- Analog DevicesNamed in the 10-K competitor list; not specifically discussed in supplied SWKS filings.
- Intel file describes SiTime as executing aggressively in precision timing and flags it as a direct precision-timing competitor.
Supply Chain
Skyworks sits between unnamed foundry/material suppliers and end markets: it designs and manufactures analog/RF/timing content across nine sites, then sells through distributors and direct customers into smartphones, automotive, data-center, and industrial systems. No neighbor transcript in the supplied set named Skyworks directly.