Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) | The Buildout — AI Infrastructure
The Verdict
Ur-Energy mines, recovers and processes uranium in Wyoming. It sells uranium oxide — yellowcake — the drummed concentrate nuclear utilities buy and eventually turn into reactor fuel, plus uranium-loaded resin from its Shirley Basin satellite plant, which is trucked to Lost Creek for finishing. Its place in the AI-infrastructure buildout is indirect and second-derivative: data-center electricity demand supports demand for nuclear baseload power, which supports demand for uranium fuel. Ur-Energy sells no AI hardware, software, power, cooling or data-center services. It does not break revenue out by end use, and management mentioned AI data centers once, on the May 2026 call, and not on the August 2026 call.
| Market Cap | — |
| Revenue (TTM) | $35M |
| Revenue Growth | −11.4% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -188.9% |
| Net Cash | $24M |
| Earnings Beats | 0 of 7 |
| P/E (TTM) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | — |
What We Like
- Shirley Basin reached full plant operation with 6 of 10 production columns online and made its first uranium shipment to Lost Creek on Aug 19, 2026, after final WDEQ authorization on June 29, 2026.
- Multi-year sales agreements with eight global nuclear energy companies cover roughly 5.75 million pounds of U₃O₈ from 2026 through 2033, including 1.3 million pounds scheduled for 2026.
- Lost Creek drummed 141,000 lbs in Q2 2026 (140,873 lbs per the press release), up 47.4% from Q1 and the most in a calendar quarter since the 2022 ramp began — achieved before the sand filter was fully commissioned.
- The sand filter lifted plant flow from just over 2,500 gpm to around 3,200–3,300 gpm, and the binding constraint moved to injection-well management rather than disappearing.
- Balance sheet at June 30, 2026: $95.3M unrestricted cash plus $0.3M short-term investments against $71.2M total debt — a net cash position.
What We’re Watching
- Unit cash cost rose to $40.20/lb in Q2 2026 from $37.50/lb in Q1 despite a far larger drummed-pound number, against the 'costs go down as pounds go up' model. The prior $20–$25/lb steady-state reference was not reaffirmed.
- Q4 2026 carries 540,000 lbs of contracted deliveries plus 250,000 lbs for uranium loan repayment in one quarter, against 55,000 lbs sold in Q1 and 215,000 lbs in Q2. The company did not restate its 2026 dollar-proceeds expectation after deferring 300,000 lbs from the Q1 figure of $83.2M.
- Cash fell to $95.3M from $123M and finished inventory at the conversion facility fell to 348,000 lbs from more than 417,000 lbs, into $12–15M per quarter of wellfield development and $25–33M of Lost Creek water-treatment capex.
- Growth is regulatory-gated: Mine Unit 5 wellfield construction is subject to approval of the wellfield package, Lost Soldier permitting is estimated at 3–5 years, and North Hadsell was cut at 33 of 50 holes with no resumption date stated.
The strategic direction strengthened across this window — a one-mine producer became a two-mine Wyoming platform, the Lost Creek flow fix was installed and measured, and management describes a seller's market it is choosing not to fully monetize. The financial direction is more mixed: unit cash cost moved the wrong way, cash and finished inventory both declined, and near-term dollar guidance was left un-restated after the deferral. The open question is whether the next Lost Creek constraint clears as visibly as the sand filter did, and whether unit cash cost reverses as Shirley-grade pounds enter the sold mix.
Earnings
Ur-Energy reported Q2 2026 revenue of $14.4M on 215,000 lbs sold, with a 13.2% gross margin. Lost Creek drummed 141,000 lbs in the quarter — 140,873 lbs in the press release, up 47.4% from Q1 2026 and the most in a calendar quarter since the 2022 ramp began. Cash cost per pound sold was $40.20/lb, up from $37.50/lb in Q1 2026. Finished inventory at the conversion facility stood at 348,000 lbs and unrestricted cash was $95.3M at June 30, 2026.
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14M | $4M | $10M | +38.5% |
| Gross margin | 13.2% | 31.6% | 18.6% | -540bps |
| EBITDA | −$14M | −$18M | −$14M | −2.1% |
| EPS | $-0.04 | $-0.07 | $-0.06 | −27.0% |
| Yellowcake drummed (Lost Creek) | 141,000 lbs (140,873 lbs per PR) | 95,599 lbs | 112,033 lbs | +25.7% YoY per press release; +47.4% QoQ |
| Cash cost per pound sold | $40.20/lb | $37.50/lb | n/a | — |
Electricity demand growth driven by AI data center development is increasingly pushing the world towards nuclear energy for clean, reliable baseload power. Nuclear momentum continues to build through reactor restarts, life extension programs and SMR development initiatives.— Matt Gili, President & CEO, May 11, 2026 call
Management tone: Management's tone on the Q2 2026 call was more assertive than in Q1, particularly on market terms and on absolutes. Contracting language moved from seeing more interest in securing supply over price negotiations to buyers 'much more focused on surety of supply as opposed to negotiating the last $0.50 off of a price,' with RFPs turned down by choice. Shirley Basin moved from initial mining and a summer shipment guide to full plant operation and a delivered first shipment. On Lost Creek, the fines discussion shifted from promising a sand filter to reporting a measured flow gain and a new constraint — injection-well management. When an analyst raised the prior $20–$25/lb steady-state cash-cost reference, management did not reaffirm it and returned instead to the 80%-fixed-cost model.
Management Guidance
Management guides to contracted deliveries rather than production pounds, and said so again on the Q2 2026 call. After deferring 300,000 lbs in July 2026 from an original 1.3M lb 2026 commitment, it said the remaining deliveries are 'absolutely on track.' Q4 2026 carries 540,000 lbs of contracted deliveries plus 250,000 lbs for uranium loan repayment, which management clarified is not included in the delivery guidance. Wellfield development is modeled at $12–$15M per quarter for at least the next year, split between Lost Creek and Shirley Basin, on a cost base management describes as 80% fixed. Shirley Basin 2026 capital remains at $25.5M and Lost Creek water-treatment capex is forecast at $25–33M. The company did not restate its 2026 dollar-proceeds expectation after the deferral, and it provides no production-pound guidance.
Trajectory
Revenue is small and lumpy because deliveries are back-loaded by contract schedule: $3.9M in Q1 2026 against $14.4M in Q2, on 55,000 lbs and 215,000 lbs sold. Production is moving up faster than sales — drummed pounds went from 95,599 in Q1 to 140,873 in Q2, the strongest quarter since the 2022 ramp began. Gross margin was 13.2% in Q2 against 31.6% in Q1. The code-computed signals read the trailing revenue trajectory as decelerating, with gross margin expanding on one measure while operating and EBITDA margins compress. On a trailing-twelve-month basis, revenue was $35.0M against EBITDA of -$66.1M and free cash flow of -$104.2M. Against that, the operating record keeps building: the 100th yellowcake shipment from Lost Creek was celebrated in June 2026, taking cumulative production to 3.5 million lbs.
The Model
The model projects FY+1 revenue of $64.0M with EBITDA of -$60M, a -93.8% EBITDA margin, and FY+2 revenue of $90.0M with EBITDA of -$36M, a -40.0% margin. Dispersion across the five runs is 19% on the FY+2 revenue line, ranging from $80M to $98M. The near term is anchored on contracted deliveries working through a schedule that the company has already cut once, while the FY+2 step depends on the Shirley Basin ramp and Lost Creek wellfield additions converting into materially higher sold volumes, with the fixed cost base spread across a larger revenue line.
| Metric | FY2025 | Next FY (E) | Following FY (E) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27M | $64M | $90M |
| YoY Growth | — | +136.2% | +40.6% |
| EBITDA | −$63M | −$60M | −$36M |
| EBITDA Margin | -233.2% | -93.8% | -40.0% |
Projections are the median of 5 independent model runs.
Management guides to contracted deliveries rather than production pounds, and said so again on the Q2 2026 call. After deferring 300,000 lbs in July 2026 from an original 1.3M lb 2026 commitment, it said the remaining deliveries are 'absolutely on track.' Q4 2026 carries 540,000 lbs of contracted deliveries plus 250,000 lbs for uranium loan repayment, which management clarified is not included in the delivery guidance. Wellfield development is modeled at $12–$15M per quarter for at least the next year, split between Lost Creek and Shirley Basin, on a cost base management describes as 80% fixed. Shirley Basin 2026 capital remains at $25.5M and Lost Creek water-treatment capex is forecast at $25–33M. The company did not restate its 2026 dollar-proceeds expectation after the deferral, and it provides no production-pound guidance.
What Could Go Right — and Wrong
- Lost Creek's next constraint — injection-well management — clears as visibly as the sand filter did, lifting drummed pounds again.
- Shirley Basin ramps toward the 500,000–1,000,000 lbs per year range referenced in Q&A, bringing better-grade, shallower pounds into the sold mix.
- Unit cash cost reverses and declines as volumes rise under the 80%-fixed-cost model.
- The Q4 2026 load — 540,000 lbs contracted plus 250,000 lbs for loan repayment — is delivered on schedule, holding management's stated standard of never missing a contracted delivery.
- The contract book is reevaluated and extended in 2027 at higher terms, while the Lost Soldier technical report and Lost Creek South drilling confirm district-scale pounds that can be developed cheaply around the existing Lost Creek plant.
- Unit cash cost keeps rising; another two quarters in the same direction would push the margin case out further.
- The Q4 2026 delivery and loan-repayment load slips, in whole or in part, into 2027.
- Cash continues to fall from $95.3M while wellfield development runs $12–15M per quarter and Lost Creek water-treatment capex is forecast at $25–33M, with the 2026 dollar-proceeds expectation left un-restated after the 300,000 lb deferral.
- The uranium loan is renegotiated rather than delivered into, weakening the read on the inventory position.
- Regulatory approval for the Mine Unit 5 wellfield package is delayed, or Lost Soldier's 3–5 year permitting estimate extends, and North Hadsell's remaining 17 holes stay unaddressed.
Looking Ahead
Over the next twelve months the question is conversion. Both fixes promised in the first half — the Lost Creek sand filter and Shirley Basin's first shipment — are now delivered, so the tests shift to whether they show up in sold pounds and in unit cost. The signposts are the roughly 120-hole Lost Creek South program targeted for later in Q3 2026, the Q4 2026 load of 540,000 lbs of contracted deliveries plus 250,000 lbs of loan repayment, and year-end 2026 milestones for the Lost Soldier technical report, Mine Unit 5 construction start and the Lost Creek reverse-osmosis upgrades. Shirley Basin optimization runs through 2027, and management has said it will reevaluate the contract book next year.
- Later Q3 2026Lost Creek South drilling — ~120-hole program; assays test the closest expansion leg
- Q4 2026Q4 delivery load — 540,000 lbs contracted plus 250,000 lbs loan repayment
- Q4 2026Uranium loan handling — Base case is delivery; renegotiation is the alternative
- Year-end 2026Lost Soldier technical report — PEA-level resource and economics; construction decision follows
- Year-end 2026Mine Unit 5 construction start — Subject to regulatory approval of the wellfield package
- Through 2027Shirley Basin optimization — More production columns online; wastewater treatment buildout
Financials
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34M | $27M | $35M | -19.8% |
| Gross Margin | -1.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | +803bps |
| EBITDA | −$60M | −$63M | −$66M | -5.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | -176.9% | -233.2% | -188.9% | 5,629bps |
| Net Income | −$53M | −$75M | −$89M | -41.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | −$81M | −$67M | −$104M | — |
| Net Cash | — | — | — | — |
Key Ratios (Trailing)
- P/E TTM—
- EV/EBITDA TTM—
- EV/Revenue TTM—
- Price/FCF TTM—
- Gross Margin (TTM)11.0%
- EBITDA Margin (TTM)-188.9%
- Net Margin (TTM)-253.1%
- ROIC-135.8%
- SBC / Revenue8.3%
The Company
Ur-Energy is a U.S. uranium company engaged in uranium mining, recovery and processing — the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of uranium mineral properties in the United States. Its product is uranium oxide (U₃O₈) yellowcake, the finished, drummed concentrate sold under contract to utilities. At Shirley Basin it also produces uranium-loaded resin, an intermediate trucked to Lost Creek for processing, drying and packaging. There is no second product line: revenue is uranium. Its relevance to AI infrastructure is upstream and indirect — AI data-center electricity demand supports nuclear baseload demand, which supports uranium fuel demand. Management mentioned AI data centers once, on the May 2026 call, and not on the August 2026 call.
Operations are concentrated in Wyoming. Lost Creek, in Sweetwater County, has been fully permitted and licensed since October 2012 and holds the district processing hub — a facility with all circuits for the capture, concentration, drying and packaging of uranium yellowcake for delivery into sales. Shirley Basin, in Carbon County, was acquired through the Pathfinder acquisition in 2013 and is built as a satellite plant, shipping loaded resin to Lost Creek for finishing. The 10-K states the company 'is an exploration stage issuer and has not established proven or probable mineral reserves,' which sits alongside press-release language describing it as 'America's largest and fastest-growing domestic ISR uranium producer.' Combined licensed production and toll-processing capacity at the two facilities is 4.2 million pounds of U₃O₈ per year.
Business Segments
Competitive Landscape
Ur-Energy's filings describe competition generically: larger, more established companies with longer operating histories that not only explore for and produce uranium but also market uranium and other products on a regional, national or worldwide basis. The 10-K also flags competition for qualified personnel and contractors, drill companies and drill equipment, and other equipment and materials — relevant with 17 rigs running at Lost Creek. Management positions the company as one of the very few producers of U.S. uranium and cites permitting adjacency, where adding a property next to an existing permitted site in the same hydrologic basin takes less permitting effort, as a structural advantage.
- Named in the model-generated wiring map. Management separately recited Cameco's disclosed contract structure — term price in the low $90s, escalators around 3%, collars near an $80 floor and $120 ceiling — when describing industry terms. Not discussed as a competitor.
- Uranium Energy Corp (UEC)Named in the model-generated wiring map; not discussed.
- EUNamed in the model-generated wiring map; not discussed.
- PENMFNamed in the model-generated wiring map; not discussed.
- UUUUNamed in the model-generated wiring map; not discussed.
Supply Chain
Ur-Energy sits upstream in the nuclear fuel cycle, mining uranium in Wyoming and selling concentrate to utilities. Its own inputs are drill rigs, wellfield construction, water treatment and reagents. No supplier or utility counterparty is corroborated by a direct quote in its filings or calls.
More on URG: Earnings recap