The Optical Rewiring of AI

for fiber preforms & silicon wafers

⚠ CHOKEPOINTSpruce Pine, NC produces most of the world's ultra-high-purity quartz for semiconductor crucibles and fiber preforms. A single geographic location. Hurricane Helene (2024) temporarily disrupted supply.

for InP laser wafers & thermal materials

⚠ CHOKEPOINTChina controls ~50% of primary indium. Indium is a byproduct of zinc ore processing. Supply is inherently inelastic — you can't mine more indium without mining more zinc.

for III-V compound semiconductors (lasers, TIAs)

⚠ CHOKEPOINTEXTREME — China produces ~80% of global gallium. Byproduct of bauxite/alumina processing. China imposed export controls on gallium effective Aug 2023, tightened Dec 2023. This is a first-order geopolitical risk for every laser diode on Earth.

for photodetectors in silicon photonics & fiber dopant

⚠ CHOKEPOINTEXTREME — China controls ~60-70% of germanium + export controls active. China imposed export controls on germanium in 2023. Germanium is essential for photodetectors in every silicon photonics chip and as a dopant in every meter of optical fiber.

for optical amplifiers & ceramic ferrules

⚠ CHOKEPOINTEXTREME — China controls ~90% of rare earth processing. Erbium (for EDFAs), ytterbium, and yttrium (for zirconia ferrules) are all dominated by Chinese supply. Building non-Chinese separation capacity takes years.

for precision ceramic ferrules in MPO connectors

for PCB substrates, heat spreaders, cable

electronic-grade phosphorus for InP

PH₃, GeH₄, SiH₄, NF₃, specialty etch gases

⚠ CHOKEPOINTHIGH — ~90% of EUV photoresist supply is Japanese. JSR, TOK, and Shin-Etsu dominate the EUV resist market. Every DSP chip in every transceiver depends on this supply chain.

precursors for fiber preforms

⚠ CHOKEPOINTHIGH — Tosoh is near-single-source for zirconia. Every MPO/MTP fiber connector in every AI data center depends on precision zirconia ferrules. Tosoh dominates the raw powder market.

the foundation of every laser diode

⚠ CHOKEPOINTHIGH — AXT Inc. (AXTI) is the largest merchant InP supplier, manufacturing entirely in Beijing. US-listed company but China manufacturing. If US-China trade restrictions tighten, this is a first-order chokepoint for the entire optical transceiver industry. InP crystal growth is extremely difficult — very few companies can do it at scale.

for silicon photonic ICs

⚠ CHOKEPOINTHIGH — Soitec is effectively single-source for photonics-grade SOI wafers. The entire silicon photonics industry — including CPO — depends on SOI wafers. Soitec's Smart Cut technology is patented and unmatched.

for DSP chips, TIAs, drivers

⚠ CHOKEPOINTMODERATE-HIGH — Japan (Shin-Etsu + SUMCO) = ~55% of global silicon wafers. Top 5 wafer makers control >95% of the market. Well-known oligopoly but no US-listed pure-play exists.

the glass rod that becomes optical fiber

for DSP and photonic IC lithography

the machines that grow laser layers

⚠ CHOKEPOINTHIGH — Aixtron + Veeco = duopoly in III-V MOCVD. Every InP laser wafer on Earth is grown in an Aixtron or Veeco reactor. Veeco is US-listed and NOT in our universe.

the light source

modulators, waveguides, Ge photodetectors

the brain of the transceiver

⚠ CHOKEPOINTEXTREME — All 1.6T DSPs are fabricated at TSMC (3nm/5nm). TSMC (TSM) is a single point of failure for every 1.6T transceiver DSP on Earth. Broadcom + Marvell together = ~90%+ of the merchant DSP market. And TSMC fabs are concentrated in Taiwan.

for DSP, TIA, SiPh fabrication

⚠ CHOKEPOINTEXTREME — ASML is sole source for EUV lithography. Every 3nm/5nm DSP chip requires EUV. ASML is the only company on Earth that makes EUV scanners. Dutch company, US ADR listed.

⚠ CHOKEPOINTMODERATE — Chinese assemblers (Innolight etc.) = 50-60% of global module volume. Innolight has captured enormous share supplying NVIDIA GPU clusters. US/Western alternatives exist but at lower volume. Geopolitical risk node.

the next evolution (2026-2028)

qualifying every optical link

where the photon ends up