2026-07-23

Markets edged lower — SPY fell 0.12% to $747.41, QQQ 0.51% to $705.35. The 524 AI infrastructure stocks we track eked out a slight outperformance, averaging +0.11% with 296 advancing and 223 declining. Fuel and raw inputs led segments at +1.60%, led by EQT (+8.5%); compute and silicon lagged at -0.73%, dragged by ADTN (-13.9%). AIRJ was the standout at +22.0%, SMCI and DELL also surged on server demand. The biggest decliner was AGPU at -25.5% despite announcing $1.3 billion in contracts — the market focused on dilution or terms. Today is a heavy earnings day: Intel, Digital Realty, Blackstone, Honeywell, Nokia, Comfort Systems, and STMicroelectronics all report. On the macro calendar, initial jobless claims and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index arrive at 12:30 ET.

GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.) reported a massive Q2 beat — EPS of $9.11 versus estimates of $2.64 (or $2.87 on a different consensus line). The wide gap underscores the complexity of Alphabet's segment profit mix (Google Search vs. Cloud vs. Other Bets). As a hyper-scale cloud operator and AI model developer, Alphabet's capex trajectory is a direct demand driver for data center infrastructure — from AEP (confirmed supplier for a Google data center in West Virginia) to cooling providers like VRT and AIRJ (both confirmed with Google). The quarter also reinforces the AI compute ramp, benefiting server makers such as SMCI and DELL. No capex number has been disclosed yet from this release; the call likely provides clarity.

TXN (Texas Instruments) beat consensus by $0.23 with EPS of $2.14. TI is a bellwether for analog and embedded chips that go into industrial, automotive, and data center power management. A beat here signals healthy demand for the building blocks of AI infrastructure — voltage regulators, interface chips, and signal chain components. Companies that integrate TI parts at scale — such as VRT and AEIS (both inferred relationships) — could see stable input costs. TI did not provide explicit AI data center exposure in the headline number.

GEV (GE Vernova) missed estimates significantly — EPS of $2.47 versus $3.17 consensus. The miss comes despite the broader push for more gas-fired generation to backfill intermittent renewables for data center loads. GEV is a confirmed supplier to AIRJ via their joint venture, and a key partner for AEP on turbine procurement. The weakness may be timing-related, but it raises questions about the pace of power generation buildout for hyperscale customers.

TSLA (Tesla) missed with EPS of $0.33 versus $0.50 estimate. While Tesla is not a core AI infrastructure play, its Dojo supercomputer and energy storage products (Megapack) have tangential relevance. The miss likely has limited direct read-through to the buildout universe beyond stationary storage demand.

KMI (Kinder Morgan) reported mixed data: a GAAP beat of $0.37 versus $0.32 estimate, but an adjusted figure of -$0.48 reflecting non-recurring items. As a midstream natural gas pipeline operator, KMI is a critical enabler for gas-fired power dedicated to data centers. The beat on operating earnings suggests stable throughput, consistent with rising gas demand from the buildout. EQT (+8.5% yesterday) continues to benefit as a producer.

TEL (TE Connectivity) beat by $0.09 at $2.94. TE makes connectors and sensors that go into networking gear, servers, and data center power distribution. The beat is a positive read-through for interconnect demand supporting AI cluster deployment. CRDO and ALAB operate in adjacent silicon connectivity markets.

RELL (Richardson Electronics) delivered a dramatic beat — $0.21 versus $0.065 estimate. The company supplies electron tubes and power grid components used in industrial RF and data center backup systems. While small cap, the magnitude of the beat signals accelerating demand for specialty components in the power infrastructure supply chain.

Other notable beats: GGG (Graco) ($0.91 vs $0.81), TDY (Teledyne) ($6.28 vs $5.79), RS (Reliance Steel) ($6.27 vs $5.47), RPM (RPM International) ($1.89 vs $1.83). LBRT (Liberty Energy) barely beat at $0.09 vs $0.085.

NVIDIA published a press release highlighting o9 Solutions' use of cuOpt for enterprise supply chain planning, claiming over 10x faster optimization. While the release is product marketing, it validates the expanding use case for NVIDIA GPU inference in non-AI workloads — manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain optimization. Each new workload vertical adds incremental server demand, which flows through to SMCI and DELL as system integrators, CRDO and ALAB for networking connectivity, and power/cooling companies such as VRT and AIRJ that equip the racks.

Vertiv announced it is helping bring NVIDIA AI compute to the Naval Postgraduate School. The project involves VRT power and cooling infrastructure supporting NVIDIA GPU clusters for defense R&D. This is a small-scale win but signals continued diversification beyond hyperscaler data centers into government/academic AI deployments. Confirmed Vertiv competitor AAON also offers data center liquid cooling solutions.

Skyworks Solutions introduced new NetSync network synchronizers designed for AI data centers and time-sensitive infrastructure. SWKS is primarily a mobile RF supplier, but this product push targets the growing need for precision timing in GPU clusters and cloud networking. The synchronizers ensure low-jitter clock distribution essential for high-throughput AI workloads. The move positions Skyworks within the "intelligence/observability" segment, though it remains small relative to its legacy business.

AGPU (Axe Compute) announced $1.3 billion in global AI infrastructure customer contracts in an 8-K filed after yesterday's close. Despite this, the stock fell 25.5% in the prior session — suggesting the market either priced in large dilutive financing, unfavorable contract terms, or questioned the counterparty quality. AGPU sources GPUs from NVDA (confirmed supplier). If the contracts are real and funded, the business could add incremental demand for NVIDIA accelerators, but the stock action says investors are skeptical.

SPX Technologies acquired Neptronic, a manufacturer of electronic controls and actuators for HVAC systems. SPXC already provides cooling infrastructure; Neptronic adds precision control capabilities for data center liquid cooling loops. The acquisition is small but supportive of the broader trend toward more sophisticated thermal management in high-density AI clusters.

Advanced Energy Industries launched an 1100W power factor correction (PFC) module in half-brick form factor, claiming industry's highest power density. AEIS serves the semiconductor equipment and data center power markets. Higher power density modules directly support the denser GPU rack configurations demanded by AI training clusters. Customers such as AMAT (confirmed relationship: AEIS supplies AMAT) and other wafer fab equipment makers may incorporate these into next-gen tools.

Intel reports today after the close — EPS estimate $0.21 (importance 95). This is a critical readout for the AI infrastructure supply chain's silicon foundation. Intel's data center group revenue, foundry services progress, and commentary on AI accelerator demand will have direct read-through to SMCI, DELL, and ANET. Intel also competes with AMD and NVDA in certain segments; any share shift commentary matters. Look for updates on Intel 18A process ramps and whether they are pulling in external foundry customers.

Digital Realty reports today (EPS estimate $0.47, importance 110). As one of the largest publicly traded data center REITs, DLR provides the most direct read-through on leasing volumes, pricing power, and new development pipeline for wholesale colocation. Its results will inform demand for power infrastructure from AEP and PCG (PG&E reporting today as well — EPS estimate $0.36, importance 110). If Digital Realty raises guidance, it signals sustained construction activity benefiting general contractors such as ACM and FIX (Comfort Systems, reporting today, EPS estimate $10.45).

Blackstone (EPS estimate $1.34, importance 100) reports today. The firm is the largest private investor in data center infrastructure, with its Q1 2026 call highlighting $20+ billion in data center assets. Any commentary on capital deployment pace or exit expectations will provide a directional signal for the entire buildout universe. Blackstone's involvement in power generation (e.g., joint ventures with KMI) also ties to the fuel and raw inputs theme.

SLB reports Friday (EPS estimate $0.51, importance 45). While primarily an oilfield services company, SLB's digital and power-related divisions serve data center backup generation and gas infrastructure. Its results offer a secondary read on energy availability for the buildout.

On the macro calendar: Initial jobless claims and Chicago Fed National Activity Index today at 12:30; S&P Global PMIs (Composite, Manufacturing, Services) and New Home Sales on Friday.